951
FXUS64 KSHV 081150 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
550 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 550 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

 - A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for Southwest Arkansas, much
   of Northeast Texas, and portions of extreme Northwest Louisiana
   through 9 AM CST this morning for visibility a quarter of a
   mile or less.

 - One more warm afternoon before temperatures crash behind a
   strong cold front Sunday morning.

 - Monday and Tuesday morning will be some of the coldest
   temperatures of the season so far. Multiple communities may
   see morning temperatures at or below freezing.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 550 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

The Dense FG Adv. has been expanded to include much of NE TX and
portions of extreme NW LA through 15Z. Sfc obs, webcams, and
satellite imagery confirm that the very low cigs have lowered into
dense FG over these areas, with the hi-res progs suggesting that
the FG should linger through mid-morning before lifting. Zone
update already out...grids should also be available. /15/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1047 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Another night, another round of fog across the region as a weak
frontal passage is starting to stall along and south of the I-20
corridor. The influence of the boundary was enough to displace
clouds across the I-30 corridor entirely, thus allowing for dense
fog to materialize across SW Arkansas. As a result, and after
collaboration with WFO Little Rock, a Dense Fog Advisory has been
issued for all of the SW Arkansas counties in the SHV CWA until 9
AM CST Saturday. There is a chance that the advisory may need to
be expanded south to the I-20 corridor in NW Louisiana. Visibility
impacts have not reached the same degree of hazard across NW
Louisiana when compared to the observations in SW Arkansas so the
plan is to hold off for now and see how this trends overnight.

Looking to Saturday, we should see more sun across the region when
compared to Friday as the aforementioned stalled boundary
retreats back north. Light winds and clearing skies through the
afternoon will allow for temperatures to quickly climb into the
low and mid 80`s for many ahead of a strong cold front that is
progged to slice across the region overnight and into early Sunday
AM. The influence of the CAA in the wake of the boundary will be
enough to suppress any significant warming efforts Sunday
afternoon as highs in the upper 50`s and low to mid 60`s will hang
around. The real impact of the strong airmass comes in the
overnight hours of Sunday into Monday as lows will fall to near or
just below freezing for many. As referenced in previous
discussions, these will be the coldest temperatures of the season
to this point. Given the forecast, a Freeze Watch will be issued
tomorrow afternoon for the overnight hours of Sunday into Monday.

Temperatures Monday afternoon will only climb into the upper 40`s
and low to mid 50`s before plunging back into upper 20`s and low
and mid 30`s into Tuesday morning. This cold snap will be short
lived as the trough work out of the area, and ridging slowly
builds east through middle to end of next week. As a result,
temperatures will quickly rebound with afternoon highs in the 70`s
and 80`s as early as Wednesday and Thursday.

One feature that will need to be closely monitored Monday and
Tuesday will be the low relative humidity percentages. The good
news is the pressure gradient behind the boundary begins to loosen
into Monday and Tuesday, but that being said, we could still see
wind gust that would support an elevated fire danger threat if a
spark is generated in such a dry environment. It is advised to
follow all burn bans issued.

53

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Areas of dense FG will persist through mid-morning across much of
NE TX/SW AR and portions of extreme NW LA, primarily affecting the
TYR/GGG/TXK/ELD terminals. Elsewhere, MVFR/low VFR cigs will
linger this morning generally along/S of the I-20 corridor of N
LA, thus limiting FG potential, although IFR/LIFR cigs with patchy
FG will affect much of Deep E TX/Cntrl LA through mid to late
morning before lifting. VFR conditions should return across these
areas by midday, although cu cigs may linger through early to mid
afternoon before scattering out. A strong cold front will shift
SSE through the region this evening/overnight, eroding any
residual cu over Deep E TX/Cntrl LA. However, thin cirrus cigs
will increase this evening across extreme NE TX/SW AR, before
gradually slipping S overnight while eroding. Lt/Vrb winds this
morning will become WSW 4-7kts after 18Z. Winds will shift out of
the NW and increase to 8-12kts late this evening/overnight with
the fropa. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1122 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Spotter activation will not be needed through Tuesday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  53  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  82  51  64  33 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  78  44  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  81  48  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  79  47  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  82  50  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  82  49  62  31 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  84  53  67  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ001>003.

OK...None.
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...15