424
FXUS64 KSHV 171208
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
608 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1218 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

 - Cloudy and mild start with patchy fog likely to improve by
   around lunch with a warmer afternoon and gusty S/SW winds.

 - This pattern is going to continue into midweek with little
   change expected as southerly winds warm our dew points.

 - Our much advertised wet end to the work week is still on course
   in similar fashion with 1 to 3 inches and some higher amounts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1218 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Well as expected our weak cold front Sunday did move over S AR
and actually in N LA in the backdoor down to near Shreveport and
Bossier City, Ruston and Bastrop with light E/NE wind. This really
helped to keep the clouds locked in over the boundary with a high
on Sunday of only 80 in Shreveport compared to a record tie of 85
on Saturday. This front is going to be lifting slowly back north
early on Monday with a few showers and maybe even a thunderstorm
or two along and north of I-30 around daybreak as a short wave
moves over the plains to our north.

Otherwise, skies will be cloudy areawide with some patchy and
dense fog confined to our southern most Counties and Parishes.
Say from Jacksonville to Center, across Toledo Bend into
Natchitoches and Jena. The clouds and some fog will lift out
before lunchtime with more sunshine and warmer temps again for the
next few afternoons. The big difference is the wind direction
shifting back from E/SE to S/SW today with some mid to late
morning gusts, continuing into the afternoon. This same pattern
will be locked in again for a few days with low to mid 80s for
highs and lows climbing back through the 60s.

The WPC precipitation outlook is maybe a little better than
lastnight, but still not back in the 5 to 7 range for a max. They
have a Marginal risk over our NW corner of the cwa, increasing to
Slight risk for excessive rainfall Thursday and Friday. We look
to receive a good inch in the Parishes and some to two to three
totals West of I-49 over E TX. Farther N in NE TX into SE OK/
SW AR along I-30 perhaps some 4 inches with isolated locales. The
GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement swinging the upper low over
the OK/TX Panhandles midnight on early Friday with our heaviest
push utilizing daytime heat in the afternoon and carrying forth
into the evening hours with eyes watching the radar.

So we are still looking forward to a wet end to the week with
some heavy convection ahead of a Pacific cold front arriving early
on Saturday with showers and thunderstorms still lingering over
the weekend along and south of I-20. Farther north will be partly
cloudy, but temps everywhere will drop back to seasonal. A 1022mb
high will park briefly over the Natural State for a nice end the
weekend, before the secondary Pacific upper low moves over OK/AR
late on Tuesday with another really good bullseye of an inch or
two for what may be a normal amount for our November after all.
There could be some more cold air late in the month after
Thanksgiving. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Another round of dense BKN/OVC CIGs at or below 3kft this
morning, along with isolated BR/FG across the southern third of
the airspace as flight conditions fluctuate between MVFR/IFR and
brief instances of LIFR. This is expected to continue through
sunrise, with conditions looking to improve as the stalled
boundary overhead lifts north and the CIGs scatter out through the
afternoon and early evening. That being said, gulf moisture
advancing northward behind the front will once again support low
CIGs overnight. A tighter pressure gradient this afternoon will
support southerly terminal winds between 10-15kt with gusts
approach 20kt.

53

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1218 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  67  84  66 /  10  10   0   0
MLU  82  62  84  63 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  79  64  82  60 /  20  10  10   0
TXK  83  67  82  64 /  20  10  10   0
ELD  79  62  81  62 /  10  10   0   0
TYR  83  68  83  65 /  10  10  10   0
GGG  83  65  84  63 /  10  10   0   0
LFK  84  65  84  64 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...53