045
FXUS64 KSHV 181157
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
557 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1228 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

 - Another warm start with a little wind continuing overnight.
   Morning low clouds mostly with some patchy fog south of I-20.

 - Still a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm in our far
   north with the warm front lifting away from our area.

 - Week ending rainfall is still on course with 1 to 2 inches for
   most and higher 3 to 4 inch totals north of our I-30 corridor.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Nice warm weather continues with well above average temperatures
and S/SW winds again today. We may see a few more record highs or
ties with a range of low to mid 80s on the books. Our midnight 4
inch depth soil reading is back up to 65 here in Shreveport with a
record of 83, sounds like a slam dunk for the third time in
recent afternoons. The upper low passing by to our north tightened
the pressure gradient and gusted the wind yesterday. And we are
still running a little brisk for the overnight hours. This will
make for a warm start and more potential records, but the winds
should not be quite as brisk as the low moves eastward into the
Great Lakes region.

Rainfall was hard to come by on the lifting warm front and now we
will have to hurry up and wait on the big west coast trough
arriving late week. The models continue with the kicker secondary
low pushing onshore and stealing the show and filling the parent
low currently in the base of the long wave. So no major changes to
the storm strength affecting our region. For now the SPC days 2
and 3 are running with a Marginal Risk for severe activity on
approach across the Lone Star State. Their days 4 - 8 remain too
low on predictability.

So we will just continue to focus on the good that the rain will
bring with our fuels still very dry. And then the weekend will
still see a weak 1022mb high slide over OK/AR with fair skies
north of I-20, but mostly cloudy conditions and scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms may continue over our southern tier of
Counties and Parishes. In fact the secondary low will be
approaching late in the long term period, bringing more needed
rainfall just ahead of Thanksgiving during early next week. The
rainfall may turn out better with this second system south of
I-20 where the drought continues to expand in the recent warm
pattern. Overall, the outlook is fair with the CPC 6-10 day
outlook and their 8-14 day outlook keeps us closer to average
rainfall, but still a little above temperature wise. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Another morning of low clouds extending across the Ark-La-Tex
airspace with a mix of MVFR/IFR and even LIFR (primarily around
KLFK). The mix of BKN/OVC CIGs mainly below 2-3kft will hang
around through the morning before lifting and scattering out
through the afternoon and evening. By sunset, what is left of the
CU should be only a mix of FEW/SCT as some SCT/BKN upper-level
cirrus advances east across the region through the overnight
period. Once again, low clouds will invade the airspace overnight
and into Wednesday AM. Similar to yesterday, gusty S/SW terminal
winds will prevail through the period with gusts between 15-20kt.
These are expected to lighten up overnight, but remain southerly.

53

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1228 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  66  84  67 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  83  64  84  63 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  82  59  82  62 /  10   0  10  60
TXK  84  64  83  66 /  10   0  10  40
ELD  80  61  82  63 /  10   0   0  20
TYR  84  65  82  67 /  10   0  20  40
GGG  84  63  83  65 /  10   0  20  30
LFK  84  63  83  63 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...53