726
FXUS64 KSHV 221248
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
648 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 959 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

 - Weak cold front will knock down temperatures today across the
   entire Four State Region but temperatures across our southeast
   half will remain above normal for late November.

 - Next storm system poised to begin impacting our region late
   Sunday Night but especially Monday through Tuesday bringing
   with it at least the potential for heavy rainfall and severe
   storms.

 - Much colder air is poised to infiltrate our region Wed into Thu
   with a chance at freezing overnight temperatures across our far
   northern zones Wed Night and Thu Night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 959 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Cold front has been slow to move into our far northwest zones this
evening and still appears to be northwest of the I-30 corridor at
this late hour Fri Night. Seeing patchy dense fog forming across
this large warm sector near and especially southeast of the I-30
Corridor and this will be the case going forward through the
overnight hours until the front moves through the region. By 3 am,
the front should be through Tyler, Longview and Texarkana with
the front through Lufkin, Shreveport and El Dorado by 6 am. The
front may be through Monroe by sunrise as well but it will be
close. Thus, have not issued a Dense Fog Advisory overnight
because of the progression of the front. Along with the patchy fog
will the the possibility of showers and thunderstorms in advance
of the cold front mainly south of the I-20 Corridor so have
accounted for this in the grids as well.

Southwesterly flow aloft has transitioned to near zonal flow
across the Southern Plains and that will allow this cold front to
move through the region, bringing with is slightly tempered
temperatures and drier dewpoints. Those conditions will hold on
through the day Sunday with return low level flow and moisture
return by Sunday Night across our entire region. On Sunday, upper
ridging across the Southern Plains will transition back to
southwest flow aloft as an upper level trough moves out of the
Four Corners Region of the country on Sunday and into the Southern
Plains on Monday. Our window for seeing strong to severe
thunderstorms along with excessive, heavy rainfall will be during
the day Monday into Monday Night assuming the upstream trough does
not slow down which they have been doing lately so will need to
watch this next storm system`s progression closely as we move
through the upcoming weekend.

WPC has already posted a SLGT Excessive Heavy Rainfall Outlook
mainly west and northwest of our region Sunday Night and across
all but our far southeast zones for the Monday/Monday Night
timeframe. With this last storm system, the heaviest rainfall fell
mostly near and northwest of the I-30 Corridor. Therefore with
early next week`s storm system, it would make sense that the
greatest flooding potential would be across this same region with
less of a flooding threat south and east of the corridor but this
will continue to be monitored. Concerning severe weather
potential, as is always the case this time of year, exact timing
of upper level forcing coinciding with enough instability will
dictate how much (if any) severe weather our region will see early
next week. I would say attm, at least the potential is there for
more in the way of the threat for widespread severe storms Monday
into Monday Night assuming the trough does not eject out further
to the north and west as its predecessor did and this will need to
be closely monitored as well.

Finally, colder air will follow the cold front which will be
poised to move through our region late Tue/Tue Night of next week.
While the colder air will be a pleasant change to the record
breaking warmth our region has witnessed this entire month of
November, the brunt of colder air associated with this post-
frontal airmass will be felt to our north and east as we will only
receive a glancing blow so to speak. Still, near freezing
temperatures will be possible overnight across at least our
northern most zones Wed Night and again Thu Night of next week.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

For the ArkLaTex terminals, SKC for most with some SCT stratocu
around 5-6kft and some very low stratus/BR right ahead of our
cool front from Toledo Bend up in N/NE LA with BR at KMLU. NW
winds 5-10KT & few gusts are on tap all day with just some late
day cirrus arriving. Cooler start on Sunday with increasing high
and mid clouds by sunset as our next upper low is on approach,
bringing much convection to our Monday and night. Then below
seasonal cold for our Thanksgiving travels under fair skies. /24/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 959 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Spotter activation is not expected over the next 24 hours.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  52  72  55 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  77  51  71  51 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  65  44  67  49 /   0   0   0  60
TXK  67  49  69  53 /   0   0   0  40
ELD  70  47  68  47 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  68  49  70  57 /   0   0   0  40
GGG  70  48  70  54 /   0   0   0  30
LFK  76  48  73  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...24