085
FXUS64 KSHV 130704
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
104 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1159 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

 - Fair weather clouds arrived yesterday afternoon and continue in
   stratus layers each morning along with patchy fog this week.

 - Partly cloudy days and S/SW winds will continue to usher in
   more 80s for highs while lows in the 50s rise into the low 60s.

 - Mild 70s for highs and lows in the 50s return by the middle of
   next week along with some much needed chances for rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1159 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

We can expect to see quite a few more 80s for highs in the coming
days with low to mid 80s into the weekend. Our lows will continue
warming as well with rising dew points on southerly winds. The
drier air circulating around the 1024mb high near the FL panhandle
continues to moisten over the coastal waters and eventually warm
our lows into the low to mid 60s over and beyond this weekend.

The overall pattern for the lower 48 is a departing trough over
New England and a slowly deepening trough off of the west coast
with basically a huge ridge encompassing much of the heartland
of our country and even parts of Canada. And with that, well
above average temperatures will remain even after the clouds
increase and bring rainfall back to our region. The long term
models have backed off slightly for high chance PoPs by the
middle of next week. However, after the slight chance that
develops early next week with a weak air mass poised at the back
door, we do see several days of chance percentages in the 30-40%
range.

The long term models still depict the longwave struggling over
the intermountain west with slight variations in the push between
the GFS and ECMWF as now the first closed low will fill and work
a nice short wave into the middle MS River Valley late next week.
Then a secondary core low drops down from the Pacific NW and has
a better time following the first weaking low, which will have paved
the way into the upper ridging. So the good news in that for now,
the cold air will keep getting colder up in the far north, while
the desired wetter pattern rules as the big trough continues to
slowly move into the plains through next weekend. As our home
page depicts, the temperatures for us will remain above average
and rainfall closer to average will linger from mid to late
November. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

For the 13/06Z TAF update, VFR vis/cigs are expected until 13/10Z as
MVFR cigs begin to build in from the south across the southern half
of the airspace through 13/18Z. Patchy FG/IFR cigs cannot be ruled
out in this timeframe, with probabilities of cigs below 1 kft. over
50% for KLFK as southerly surface winds continue. /16/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1159 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  58  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  77  55  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  72  48  78  55 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  78  55  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  75  51  77  55 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  77  57  81  60 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  78  55  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  79  57  81  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...16