983
FXUS64 KSHV 010642
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
142 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025

 - Above normal temperatures will continue over the next 7 days,
   but widespread heat-related impacts are not expected.

 - A slight chances for showers and thunderstorms will return on
   Thursday, with additional rain chances by the end of the
   weekend through the first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025

A weak upper-level trough moved across the region this past
afternoon, bringing mostly cloudy skies and a few stray showers.
But, the trough has pushed east of the region. Expect mostly
clear skies overnight and slightly cooler temps as surface high
pressure settles over the area. With calm to light/variable winds
expected, we should see decent radiational cooling overnight with lows
falling into the low to mid 60s. Dry weather and partly cloudy
skies are expected today, with slightly above normal temperatures
remaining, as afternoon highs will range from the upper 80s to
lower 90s.

By Thursday morning, the surface high will slide northeastward
into the Midwest, allowing weak ESE flow to set-up over the
region. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along a weak
easterly wave moving across the northern Gulf. Models continue to
suggest some of this convection could push into southern half of
our Louisiana zones during the afternoon hours. At the same time,
with the aforementioned surface high moving across the Midwest
into the NE CONUS, a weak upper trough will be backdooring into
the region. This will also aid in the development of some
afternoon isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly across our
Arkansas and Northern Louisiana zones.

On Friday and Saturday, the surface high will continue to expand
across the Northeast back into the Midwest and SE CONUS in wake
of the Thursday`s backdoor trough. Expect rain-free conditions, as
a drier and less humid airmass will push into the region. However,
afternoon highs will continue to range from the mid 80s to around
90 degrees.

As we move into Sunday and through the first half of next week,
long-term progs are developing a sfc low somewhere just south of
the Texas and Louisiana Gulf coasts, which would bring rain
chances back into the region during this period. The evolution of
this system will need to be monitored closely, as it has the
potential to develop some tropical characteristics.

/20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025

For the 01/06Z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
throughout the course of this forecast period. Aside from a few high
level clouds, skies will remain mostly clear overnight. Guidance is
reintroducing the possibility of patchy fog near daybreak, with
impacts most likely at KLFK, and possibly also KELD and KGGG. VFR
conditions look to return quickly, with the only daytime feature
being the afternoon Cu field, developing by late morning and
dissipating quickly after sunset. Winds will be light and variable
to nearly calm overnight, developing a northeasterly orientation
during the day at sustained speeds of 4 to 7 kts.

/26/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025

Spotter activation is not expected over the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  91  68  90 /   0  20   0   0
MLU  68  91  66  88 /  10  20   0   0
DEQ  64  89  63  87 /   0  10   0   0
TXK  67  91  66  89 /   0  20   0   0
ELD  65  88  63  86 /   0  20   0   0
TYR  65  91  67  89 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  65  91  65  89 /   0  10   0  10
LFK  65  93  67  90 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...20