370
FXUS64 KSHV 021819
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1219 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1117 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

 - Closely watching cloud coverage overnight as this will dictate
   the extent of the low forecast.

 - Brief warm-up for Wednesday, before rain cooled air drops
   temperatures through the end of the week.

 - High confidence rain prospects return Thursday, into early
   Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1117 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Temperatures across the region are slowly recovering from the
range of 30`s early this morning. Though overnight temperatures
did not fall to the cold values that guidance had suggested due
to stubborn cloud coverage negating any robust radiational
cooling, temperatures this afternoon remain on the cooler side in
areas where those same SCT/BKN clouds remain along a sfc ridge
axis. RAP 925mb RH has modeled this well as the 09z and 12z output
suggest that the low level moisture supporting the low clouds,
that have settled around 2kft, will continue to do so through the
late afternoon. Questions arise with how the clouds impact the
forecast overnight as this will determine just how cold lows are
by morning.

While some guidance suggests that the cloud coverage
will dissipate for a few hours overnight, others remain confident
that low level return flow will be strong enough to support a
layer of ceilings that will inhibit any stronger radiational
cooling. For now, weighing on the side of the cloud coverage
locally, with an overnight forecast that has low temperatures
bumped up by 2-3 deg F from the base guidance to account for the
clouds overnight. While still cold, and with many near or below
freezing still, these values are slightly different from the base
NBM output.

By Wednesday afternoon, a noticeable temperature transition will
be in full swing as the aforementioned southerly wind shift,
combined with some warm air advection from the west, will help
temperatures rebound into the mid and upper 50`s to near 60 deg F,
especially around some ETX communities. Where temperatures
continue to trend on the cooler side will be across the northeast
zones of the region that are still under the remaining influence
of the departing surface high. By late Wed PM/Thu AM, moisture
advection from the the S/SW, along with a weak surface low
embedded within the mid flow of a shortwave kicking east across
TX, will support high confidence in rain prospects across the
region through the day on Thursday, extending into early Friday AM
before the feature departs.

For now, the forecast calls for a mild, and dry weekend that
looks to carry into early next week. One feature that is somewhat
new this afternoon is a more pronounced trough across the region
for the second half of the weekend. This is an outlier in the
guidance when compared to other guidance, but something to watch
as this would deviate the weekend forecast from where it currently
stands.

KNAPP

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1117 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Extensive MVFR cigs will linger through the afternoon across much of
SW AR and N LA, although some erosion of these cigs are expected
along the Wrn fringes which should result in VFR conditions
returning to GGG/TXK by mid-afternoon, and possibly SHV by late
afternoon/early evening. However, low level winds are expected to
quickly veer more ESE this evening along the base of sfc ridging in
place across the Mid/Lower MS Valley, which may result in the MVFR
cigs over portions of Srn AR into much of N LA actually advecting
more WNW back into NW LA/extreme SW AR and portions of extreme Ern
TX this evening, lingering through the overnight hours. It`s
uncertain as to how far W these cigs may backbuild, and for now,
current thinking is that the cigs will remain roughly along/E from a
LFK/GGG/OSA/PRX line by daybreak Wednesday. These cigs should begin
to erode/scatter out from the S by mid to late morning Wednesday,
with VFR conditions returning to much of the region. However, should
see a rapid increase in high based MVFR/low VFR cigs Wednesday
afternoon as they quickly spread NNE into E TX/Wrn LA. Cirrus cigs
will also begin to increase/thicken Wednesday afternoon as well. NNW
winds around 5kts this afternoon will become Lt/Vrb after 00Z.
/15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1117 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  58  46  51 /   0   0  80  60
MLU  30  55  43  50 /   0   0  70  70
DEQ  26  52  36  45 /   0   0  10  30
TXK  31  57  41  47 /   0   0  30  40
ELD  28  52  37  45 /   0   0  50  50
TYR  34  60  45  50 /   0   0  50  50
GGG  33  59  43  50 /   0   0  70  60
LFK  32  61  47  54 /   0  10  90  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...15