957
FXUS64 KSJT 202106
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
306 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch remains in effect through tonight.

- Rain chances continue through tonight, before decreasing
  Friday. There`s a risk for excessive rainfall and flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 241 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Significant flash flooding event ongoing this afternoon across
eastern portions of the Concho Valley and Heartland. Rainfall
amounts of 6-10 inches have been observed in and near the city of
Menard, with widespread 2-6 inch rainfall amounts from northern
Kimble County northeastward into San Saba and Brown Counties. This
all due to favorable upper level dynamics, precipitable water
values near 1.7 inches, and persistent low level moisture
transport. High res CAMs indicate this persistent band of
convection to gradually push eastward across the Heartland and
into central Texas over the next few hours. Looking back to the
west, additional showers and thunderstorms are developing across
the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos as a strong shortwave digs into
the Big Bend. Additional shower and storm development will
continue into the evening and overnight hours as the shortwave
passes through. However, we are not expecting a repeat of this
morning and afternoon`s flash flood event. Much quieter weather is
expected on Friday as shortwave ridging builds into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 143 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

The next storm system(currently approaching the southwest US) will
move across northern Mexico and then move across the southern
Plains this weekend including our area. As a result, expect strong
lift, abundant moisture(PW values 1.25 to 1.75 inches), and a
Pacific cold front will lead to medium to high chances(50-80%) of
showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. There is a slight
chance of excessive rainfall(15-40%) for much of the area Sunday
through Monday morning which may lead to more flash flooding.
Also, there is a low chance(5-15%) of a few marginal severe
thunderstorms with this this storm system due to weak/locally
moderate instability and good vertical wind shear.

look for a dry and cooler pattern for much of next week. Highs will
be in the upper 50 to lower 70s and lows in the 30s by Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1109 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon and
evening hours before tapering off tonight. IFR/MVFR conditions
will likely be likely with any storms that directly impact the
terminals. Otherwise, patchy low clouds and mist will continue
today and continue into the early morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     53  74  45  70 /  40   0   0  10
San Angelo  50  74  43  70 /  30   0   0  20
Junction    54  75  47  72 /  50  20  10  20
Brownwood   53  75  44  71 /  60  10   0  10
Sweetwater  50  72  46  68 /  40   0   0  10
Ozona       51  74  46  71 /  30   0   0  30
Brady       55  72  48  70 /  60  20  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for Brown-Kimble-Mason-
McCulloch-Menard-San Saba-Sutton.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...42