161
FXUS64 KSJT 232337
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
537 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Rain chances will increase later today into tonight, with the
   potential for heavy rainfall and a few strong to severe storms
   across the area.

-  A Flood Watch is in effect for the Concho Valley and much of
   the Heartland and Big Country from 6 PM today through 8 AM
   Monday.

- Cooler temperatures expected for Wednesday, with highs in the
  50s and lows in the 30s on Thanksgiving morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1242 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening, along with a threat for locally heavy rainfall which will
continue into the morning hours Monday. A potent upper level low
centered near the Four Corners region will track northeast toward
Colorado this evening and then across Kansas and Nebraska on Monday.
Ahead of this feature, surface moisture is quickly increasing across
the area. Dewpoints are forecast to rise into the upper 50s to lower
60s by late this afternoon across our western counties. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop this
afternoon, mainly across the northern half of the area. Meanwhile,
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop to our
west, across the Trans-Pecos region and Permian Basin. Supercells
are possible, mainly producing large hail. This activity may
approach our western counties by early this evening, with large hail
still being the main threat (although damaging winds are also
possible). Locally heavy rainfall is also possible with any storms
that develop.

The next concern becomes the potential for heavy rainfall late this
evening into Monday morning, as large scale ascent increases with
the approaching upper level low. Most of the CAMs indicate a band
of showers and thunderstorms developing from the Concho Valley,
northeast into portions of the Big Country and Heartland. The
concern is that we will see training of storms, with the same
areas getting hit by multiple storms. This may result in a
corridor of high rainfall amounts, with some locations seeing 2 to
4 inches, or more. Exactly where this band of heavier rain sets
up is the main question. Right now, we think that it will set up
from the northern Concho Valley into southern portions of the Big
Country, but a shift by 20 to 40 miles could make a huge
difference on who sees the highest rainfall totals. Given the
potential for flash flooding, a Flood Watch was issued for much of
the Concho Valley, portions of the Big Country and the Heartland
from 6 PM this evening through 8 AM Monday.

A Pacific cold front will track across the area on Monday, ushering
in drier air, with rain chances ending from west to east during the
morning hours. Highs on Monday will be in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1246 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

The low pressure mentioned in the short term will be off to the east
by the start of the long term period. The thunderstorms will also,
therefore, be off to the east of our area as well. Cooler conditions
will persist on Tuesday along with drier conditions.
Higher pressure will slowly increase temperatures across the region
on Tuesday. However, another cold front will drop temperatures
across the region on Wednesday. Temperatures will once again
climb into the mid 60s by the end of the week. For Thanksgiving
Day, morning lows will be in the low to middle 30s. Highs will be
in the middle 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will increase this evening and into the
overnight hours, especially at KABI and KSJT. Hail, gusty winds,
and heavy rain is possible within any thunderstorms. Expect most
of this activity to be east of the TAF sites by mid morning
Monday. MVFR/IFR ceilings will gradually improve to VFR by mid to
late morning Monday as winds become westerly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     57  73  46  71 /  90  30   0   0
San Angelo  57  73  42  72 /  90  40   0   0
Junction    58  75  42  76 /  50  70   0   0
Brownwood   55  73  43  72 / 100  80   0   0
Sweetwater  55  72  46  70 /  90  10   0   0
Ozona       58  72  43  74 /  80  30   0   0
Brady       59  71  45  71 /  80  80   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday morning for Brown-Callahan-Coke-
Coleman-Concho-Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels-Shackelford-Sterling-
Taylor-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...42