539
FXUS64 KSJT 252023
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
223 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  A cold front will move through the area this afternoon and
   evening, bringing cooler temperatures tonight and Wednesday.
   Pleasant weather is expected Thanksgiving Day.

-  Low chances of showers and thunderstorms return Friday into
   the upcoming weekend.

-  Much colder temperatures and a low chance of light wintry
   mix Big Country early next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1226 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Another cold frontal passage will be the main highlight of the
short term portion of the forecast. This front will enter into
the Big Country later this evening. Overnight lows are forecast to
be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs for tomorrow will only be
in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Look for an upper level pattern change which will lead to
temperature swings, finally replace by a colder airmass early next
week and also low chances for precipitation. The next strong
storm system(currently a strong upper level jet punching into
Pacific NW) is due into the Plains this weekend. Our area will be
in the warm sector Saturday with a dryline moving across the area
Saturday morning. The best low level moisture/instability plume
will be across the eastern 1/3 of the area. As a result, going
with low chance Pops(15-40%) of showers and thunderstorms across
much of the area Friday night and Saturday morning. There is a low
chance(5-15%) chance of a few severe storms east of an Abilene to
San Angelo line.

Going with a dry forecast and cooling off for Sunday. There is at
least a low chance(10-30%) chance of a shallow arctic
airmass(arrival of a cold front) moving south across much west
central Texas next Sunday through Tuesday. The global ensemble
members are showing a 50/50 split on intensity/timing of the cold
air early next week. For now, will go with the NBM temperatures
as forecast confidence is low on the arrival of the arctic air.
The bottom line is that it will turn colder with sub freezing
temperatures Monday and Tuesday(lows in the 20s) and highs only in
the 40s on Monday. Also, the Day 7 WPC winter weather outlook is
indicating a a low chance(10-30%) of a light wintry mix for the
Big Country early next week. This is still pretty far out so check
back for updates as this will be the first round of mainly winter
like temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the TAF period.
A cold front will shift winds to northerly. Otherwise, benign
weather will persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     40  59  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  40  59  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    42  62  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   39  59  36  63 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  40  58  41  64 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       42  61  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       41  58  38  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...41