231
FXUS64 KSJT 170351
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
951 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record or near record high temperatures through Tuesday.

- Rain chances increase Wednesday, peaking Thursday, before
  decreasing Friday. There`s a marginal to slight risk for
  excessive rainfall and flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 145 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

High pressure overhead will result in continued hot and dry
conditions for the remainder of today and tomorrow. In fact, as of
1:50 PM CST, San Angelo hit 88 degrees so far. This is hotter
than the record high of 87 for San Angelo (Mathis Field).
Therefore, we have seen record breaking heat this afternoon
already. A weak cold front has stalled across portions of the Big
Country, which will keep temperatures a touch cooler across those
areas. Otherwise, another hot day is forecast for tomorrow with
highs in the middle to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 100 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Rain chances are still looking good for the middle of next week. The
upper level trough will sit over Baja California on Wednesday,
progressing towards our area on Thursday. Ahead of the trough, we`ll
see large scale lift and increasing moisture throughout the column.
At the surface a cold front will move through Thursday into Friday.
Areas ahead and along the front will have the best chance for
precipitation, as moisture will be much higher. Rain chances will
begin early Wednesday, peak early Thursday, and decrease by early
Friday. Heavy rainfall and flooding are concerns with this system.
PWAT values will be very high for this time of the year, sitting
around the 99th percentile for late Wednesday and Thursday. Most
likely rain amounts (25th to 75th percentile) are generally around
half an inch to 3 inches across the area. Models are hinting at the
potential for pockets of 4 to 5 inches, but the exact location of
the heaviest rainfall is still very uncertain. We`ll get a better
idea of rainfall amounts and locations once we get close enough
for the high res models. We`ll also need to keep an eye on the
potential for a few strong to severe storms with this activity.

Looking at temperatures, the very above normal highs will continue
for Tuesday and Wednesday. However, highs should remain a few
degrees shy of the records. Temperatures will be much closer to
normal for Thursday through the weekend as a surface high builds
into the area behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 926 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Light winds
will increase to 8 to 12 knots by late morning or early afternoon
Monday, then become light Monday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     86  58  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  89  56  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    92  55  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   88  54  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  85  58  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       89  56  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       89  59  87  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...Daniels