285
FXUS64 KSJT 181841
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1241 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances begin on Wednesday, peaking Thursday, before
  decreasing Friday. There`s a marginal to slight risk for
  excessive rainfall and flooding.

- There is a medium chance (40-60%) of at least 1 inch of rainfall
  across much of the area east of an Abilene to San Angelo line
  for Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1240 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

An upper low, currently over the California coast between San
Francisco and Los Angeles, will move slowly southeast to near the
southern border of California by Wednesday evening. Our area is
under southwest flow aloft, out ahead of this low. Low-level
moisture is making an appreciable return and dewpoints have climbed
into the lower to mid 60s across the southern two-thirds of our
area. With a continued influx of low-level moisture, widespread low
cloud development and northward expansion is expected over much of
our area overnight and Wednesday morning. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday, but this
should be primarily in the afternoon as an embedded disturbance
ahead of the main low and trough moves over eastern New Mexico and
adjacent West Texas. Toward evening, a few isolated strong storms
will be possible with a marginal threat for large hail. By that
time, destabilization will be combined with effective bulk shear
35-45 knots. Through Wednesday, temperatures will remain well-
above normal for this point in November. Lows tonight will be in
the upper 50s to lower 60s, and highs Wednesday will be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1204 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

The well-advertised pattern change is on track to start on
Wednesday. A deep upper-level trough will dig into southern
California by Wednesday morning then progress eastward into west
Texas by Thursday night. An upper-level impulse will eject out of
the main trough on Wednesday as moisture and instability increases
to around 1000 J/kg throughout the day. Given the instability and
some upper- level support, hi-res models show that showers and
thunderstorms will start developing late Wednesday afternoon and
evening. As the low- level jet increases, some storms could become
strong to severe. Damaging wind gusts could occur in the more
intense storm cores as stronger winds are mixed down from the mid-
levels. SPC currently is carrying a Marginal Risk for severe
weather on Wednesday. Rain chances continue to ramp up Wednesday
night into Thursday as PWAT values increase to 1.31 and the column
becomes saturated. Models show a Pacific-based cold front pushing
into west central Texas with mid-level heights falling as the
main system approaches. Rain chances look to peak around 90% on
Thursday with the passage of a cold front and as the upper-level
low becomes negatively tilted. At this point, there is a medium
chance for 1-1.5 inches of rain in 48 hours ending Friday morning,
with low to medium chances of around 2 inches. Heavier amounts
could occur locally with stronger thunderstorms. WPC is carrying a
Marginal to Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall on Thursday for the
expected flood threat. As the system pushes eastward and
occludes, the dry slot should move over west central Texas and
bring rain to an end Thursday night.

After this system exits stage right, another system will be
developing over California for this weekend into early next week.
Models show this next system similarly digging southward into
northern Mexico on Friday and Saturday and then trekking eastward by
Sunday. The latest models are disagree on how quickly this next
system will push eastward and where it will track.  The GFS is the
faster solution that takes the low over the central Plains while the
Euro closes it off to some degree before pushing it straight into
central Texas. Regardless, ensembles show rain chances increasing
for Sunday and especially Monday.  The picture will likely become
much clearer after the first system passes.  For now, we`ll go with
low to medium rain chances for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Low cloud cover has begun to break up, and ceilings are climbing
to 2500-3500 ft at our southern terminals at midday. Expect a
scattered to broken cloud field over the southern half of our area
this afternoon, with VFR ceilings at all of our TAF sites by
20-21Z. With ample low-level moisture return overnight and
Wednesday morning, expect widespread low cloud development and
northward expansion over much of our area. The northern edge of
the low cloud field should extend up into the southern Big
Country by 12Z Wednesday. Cloud ceilings will be initially MVFR,
but then lower into the IFR category. Also anticipate patchy mist
and have it included at all of our TAF sites south of KABI.
Numerical model guidance has some discrepancy on how low the
visibilities could be. At this time, have minimum visibilities 3-4
miles at our southern terminals. This can be assessed further with
subsequent model data. Isolated to widely scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday morning, but at this
point confidence is too low to include at our TAF sites. Wind
speeds will remain less than 10 knots, and primarily from the
south-southwest this afternoon and south tonight into Wednesday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     62  81  62  72 /  10  40  80  90
San Angelo  61  79  60  71 /  10  40  90 100
Junction    61  81  59  71 /   0  40  80  90
Brownwood   60  81  60  71 /   0  30  80  90
Sweetwater  62  79  61  71 /  10  50  80  90
Ozona       61  76  60  71 /  10  40  90  90
Brady       62  80  62  69 /  10  30  90  90

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night
for Brown-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-San Saba-Sutton.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...19