179
FXUS64 KSJT 300749
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
149 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Cold and cloudy today, with wind chills in the 20s to mid 30s.

-  Cold overnight temperatures expected due to a series of cold
   fronts Monday evening into Tuesday and Wednesday night into
   Thursday.

-  Medium chance for showers on Thursday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 149 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

The latest observations on this early Sunday morning show a strong
cold front has pushed through west central Texas.  In its wake,
strong cold air advection was taking place with northeast winds at
10-15 MPH.  Temperatures were in the upper 30s to low 40s and
falling. A low to mid-level stratus deck was also in place across
the area.  As the day progresses, cloud cover should remain firmly
in place due to the post-frontal inversion.  This should limit the
diurnal range as temperatures could struggle to get above 40 for
much of the day  This, combined with the winds, will make the air
feel like it is the mid 30s.  So the result? A cold, raw, and cloudy
day for west central Texas.  The steady northeast winds should
decrease by the evening as high pressure builds in from the north.
However, the cloud cover should hold firm and low temperatures will
again be in the mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 149 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...Warmer Monday but secondary cold front moves in late...
...Another cold front moves in late Wednesday with a chance of
showers Thursday and Thursday night...

Warmer temperatures expected Monday as southeast to south winds
return, and low level clouds dissipate from west to east. A
secondary surge of cold air, however, will be moving in during the
afternoon in the Big Country and through the rest of West Central
Texas Monday evening. The secondary cold front will limit high
temperatures in the Big Country in the upper 50s/lower 60s, but high
in the mid 50s to lower 60s expected farther south. Clearing skies
and lighter winds Tuesday morning bring the coldest temperatures of
the week, with lows of 25 to 31 degrees.

Another cold front will move in Wednesday afternoon in the Big
Country, mainly after maximum afternoon heating, and through the
rest of the region Thursday evening. No rain is expected
initially, but an upper trough moving into the 4 corners region
will allow fairly strong lift of moist air over the cold front,
allowing rain chances Thursday into Thursday night. There are
differences in the the EC and GFS models on the strength of the
overrunning, with the EC not as strong. So there is only a medium
confidence in rainfall on Thursday. Despite the differences, dry
conditions indicated in all the models Friday into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 941 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

CIGs of 2500-3500 ft AGL across the Heartland and Northwest Hill
Country are expanding to the southwest, potentially bringing MVFR
CIGs to KABI, KBBD, and KJCT through around 08Z. Also, MVFR CIGs
could start developing again across the Northwest Hill Country
after 00Z Mon. Otherwise, VFR conditions should continue through
06Z Mon. Gusty N to NNE winds of 15-20 KT with gusts to 25-30 KT
will continue through around 13-16Z today for most of the area
before wind speeds decrease to around 9-13 KT between 16Z today
and 01Z Mon, with winds then turning out of the E to ENE at 4-8
KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     42  35  52  27 /   0  10  10   0
San Angelo  43  34  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    47  34  60  30 /   0  10  10   0
Brownwood   44  33  50  28 /   0  10  10  10
Sweetwater  41  35  53  29 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       43  35  59  32 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       44  35  53  30 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...SJH