231
FXUS64 KSJT 191941
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
141 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch in Effect for this evening through Thursday Night.

- Rain chances begin today, peaking Thursday, before decreasing
  Friday. There`s a risk for excessive rainfall and flooding.

- There is a high chance (90%+) of at least 2 inches of rainfall
  across the Heartland and Hill Country by Thursday afternoon,
  with a small chance of at least 1 inch of rain (less than 30%)
  for areas from Abilene to San Angelo.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 101 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Obviously, heavy rainfall and flood potential is the main concern.

Incredible amounts of low level moisture for mid November, with
PWAT values nearing the 1.75 inch range (which would be in the
99th percentile for this time of year). Upper level low moving
into the southwest US with several shortwaves set to rotate
through the area. Right rear quadrant of a 90kt upper level jet
will be moving across the area as well. All this to say that this
system has all the ingredients for widespread showers and storms
across the area.

Most models are coming into line (other than some of the NAM and
its variants) in showing a band of heavy rainfall extending from
the western and northwestern Hill Country and Edwards Plateau,
from roughly along the Del Rio to Junction line, developing this
evening and continuing into Thursday. Appears to come out in 2
waves as shortwaves rotate through the area, with the first wave
this evening into the early morning hours, and the second arriving
during daylight hours on Thursday.

There remains some uncertainty with regards to extent and exact
amounts, but HREF probabilities are now showing a high chance
(90%+) of greater than 2 inches of rain over the next 24 hours
across the NW Hill Country around Junction, with point totals in
some models creeping above 8 inches in a few instances. Amounts
just to the south are even higher and are reaching 10+ inches
(and a reminder that the South LLano River flows north into Kimble
County from Kerr and Edwards Counties). Soils are dry but this is
the Hill Country where topsoil is shallow and runoff occurs very
quickly. That much rain in a short amount of time is going to
cause problems despite the recent dry conditions. Will continue
the Flood Watch in effect and push up the rain totals down there.

Across the rest of the area, forecasted precip totals have
decreased as the models have consolidated across the Hill Country.
Still appears that actual rain chances are high, but totals around
San Angelo and Abilene are now showing relatively low chances of
reaching 1 inch (up to 30%).

Not ignoring the risk of a few severe storms across the area
as well, although these will be driven by the impressive shear and
less by the instability. Widespread storm coverage likely to limit
severe storm coverage, but if a few storms can become more
isolated and tap into the limited instability better, than some
risk of marginal hail and even an isolated tornado can not be
ruled out.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1215 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

By Thursday morning, models have come into good agreement with a
negatively tilted parent low centered near western Arizona. A
potent shortwave rotating around the parent low will move over
west Texas during the day. Ahead of this upper level feature,
persistent south/southeasterly low level flow will increase
moisture across the entire west central Texas region. Surface
dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s, as well as moisture in the mid and
upper levels of the atmosphere will lead to precipitable water
values hovering around the 1.5 inch range for areas southeast of a
Brownwood to Ozona line, and greater than an inch for the entire
area. High resolution CAMs, as well as lower resolution global
models, continue to concentrate the greatest rainfall in areas
that are already covered in a Flash Flood Watch, so there`s no
need to make changes there. Other than the flash flood threat,
severe weather is not expected to be a concern with cooler
temperatures and lower instability by Thursday.

Expect the bulk of the heavy rain to end to end by the evening
hours Thursday, with nearly all of the rain except for a few light
showers exiting the area by around Midnight Thursday.

Friday into Saturday will be drier with 20% or less chances for
precipitation. Temperatures will also be closer to normal from
Thursday through Saturday as well.

For the next system, medium range models continue to converge
around a solution showing a strong low moving into central New
Mexico by Sunday and then into the southern plains by Tuesday.
This will bring another good chance for showers and thunderstorms
from Sunday into Monday night. Moisture is expected to recover
rather efficiently from the storms over the next few days, so
heavy rainfall and flooding will again be possible, along with
severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Mainly VFR conditions this afternoon will rapidly deteriorate this
evening and especially overnight into Thursday morning as showers
and storms become widespread across the area. Using the CAMs as a
first guess forecast on the timing of the start, and then using
prevailing storms for late tonight through Thursday morning. Some
possibility of more isolated activity sooner than projected but
given the uncertainty in timing and whether its near a terminal
location, will leave out for now. Will see MVFR for much of
tonight into Thursday, with pockets of both IFR and VFR at times.
Wind speeds will remain at mainly southerly at about 10 knots but
will vary around the storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     64  71  52  74 /  70  90  60   0
San Angelo  59  70  49  73 /  80  90  60   0
Junction    59  72  53  74 /  90  90  70  10
Brownwood   61  71  53  75 /  80 100  80  10
Sweetwater  63  70  50  72 /  80  90  40   0
Ozona       60  71  50  73 /  80  90  40   0
Brady       62  68  55  72 /  80  90  80  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 9 PM CST this evening through late Thursday
night for Brown-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-San Saba-Sutton.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07