984
FXUS64 KSJT 041122
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
522 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Breezy and colder conditions today, along with a low chance (20
   to 30 percent) for scattered light rain showers this morning
   across the Big Country.

-  Dry and warmer weather will prevail Friday through Saturday,
   before the next cold front on Sunday, followed by gradual
   warming for the beginning of the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 114 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Early this morning a cold front was moving southward through west
central Texas. Winds behind the front are from the northeast at 10-
15 MPH with gusts near 20.  Temperatures were falling into the 40s.
A weak impulse embedded in the mid-level southwest flow was helping
to provide lift for some developing showers over the far northern
Big Country. In addition, low-level moisture was being lifted by the
front and may produce some very light showers this morning east of a
line from Haskell to Mason.  As the morning goes on, the mid-level
support for precipitation will diminish and rain chances will end.
However, northeast flow below the 850mb level should keep low-level
cloud cover in place through at least mid-afternoon. An area of
surface high pressure moving into Texas from the north should
continue to advect cold air into the region throughout the day. The
stout cloud cover, combined with cold air advection, should result
in a narrow diurnal range today. Temperatures will likely hover in
the low to mid 40s and not rise much at all. The clouds should start
to break up this evening as low-level flow shifts out of the
northwest and drier air moves in. Winds will be light overnight due
to the center of the high moving in and temperatures should fall
into the 30s. Areas along and north of Interstate 20 in the Big
Country could fall to around freezing again where cloud cover is
expected to decrease the most.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1051 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

An upper-level trough will set up across the region from the west
by the end of the work week, with a series of weak shortwave
disturbances tracking through West Central Texas though the first
half of next week. The limiting factor remains the available
moisture for precipitation, which most models are showing is still
lacking. As of now, we are expecting these systems to remain dry
and track through the area with little to no precipitation.

Temperatures are expected to warm Friday into Saturday into the
upper 60s to mid 70s Saturday, before the next cold front on
Sunday brings high temperatures into the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Temperatures gradually warm back into the upper 60s to mid 70s by
Wednesday, before the arrival of the next cold front on Thursday.
Coldest night over the next week will be Monday morning when
radiational cooling allows temperatures to drop to near or below
freezing across much of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

MVFR to IFR ceilings are occurring right now at all terminals with
some reduction in visibility due to rain and/or mist. These
conditions should continue through most of the morning then
start to improve to VFR after 18Z. North to northeast winds will
gust over 20KT this morning but should decrease by this afternoon,
becoming light and variable after 00Z this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     44  32  63  36 /  20   0   0   0
San Angelo  47  34  62  39 /   0  10   0   0
Junction    51  35  60  40 /  10  10  20   0
Brownwood   47  32  59  37 /  30   0   0   0
Sweetwater  44  33  63  35 /  20   0   0   0
Ozona       49  35  58  39 /   0  10  10   0
Brady       47  35  58  42 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...SK