095
FXUS64 KSJT 171928
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
128 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record or near record high temperatures through Tuesday.

- Rain chances increase Wednesday, peaking Thursday, before
  decreasing Friday. There`s a marginal to slight risk for
  excessive rainfall and flooding.

- There is a medium chance (40-60%) of at least 1 inch of rainfall
  across much of the area east of an Abilene to San Angelo line
  for Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1244 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Have already broken the record high at Abilene this afternoon with
another hour or two of heating upcoming. Abilene has hit 87
degrees as of noon, with the old record of 86 for this day set
back in 1885 and 1938. Record high for today in San Angelo and
we will make a serious run at it before the end of the afternoon.
More of the same for tomorrow, with the current forecast high of
87 at Abilene would tie the record. A little more low level
moisture and a little more cloud cover may keep temperatures down
a few degrees and stay in the low to mid 80s.

Mild again tonight with light south winds helping keep lows in the
upper 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1244 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Approach of the upper level storm system will start to have more
significant effects by Wednesday with more cloud cover holding on
later in the afternoon and helping keep temperatures down some.
Will still be well above normal in the upper 70s and lower 80s but
below the mid 80s record highs at both San Angelo and Abilene.
Will start to see a few light showers develop by Wednesday
afternoon, with the exception of the 06Z RRFS which is much more
aggressive than other models for Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise,
most of the other models hold off until Wednesday Night into
Thursday and thats when we will carry the highest POP totals for
now.

Rainfall totals are still a question, although still appears that
the eastern third of the area including the Northwest Hill Country
north into the Heartland (Junction north to Brownwood roughly)
will see the highest totals. This is still pretty much where the
Day 3 and Day 4 Excessive Rainfall Outlooks have it located and
that seems reasonable for now. Will add that the statistical data
from the LREF shows a medium chance of at least 1 inch of rain at
both San Angelo and Abilene (45%-50%), and a little higher at
Brownwood and San Saba (60%). Again, as the short term CAMs come
into time frame over the next 24-36 hours, suspect that the
forecast will come a little better into focus for timing and
amounts.

First upper level system weakens as it shifts into the Central
PLains, with a second upper low developing across the Southwest US
and moving towards the Plains for the weekend. After a fairly
quiet Friday, rainfall chances set to increase again for Saturday
and Sunday.

Even with the higher rain chances and cloud cover, temperatures
will stay or a little above normal through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Generally clear skies and VFR conditions will continue this
afternoon through early tonight. Low cloud development over our
southern and southeastern counties will occur late tonight, and
should envelop the area southeast of an Ozona to Brownwood line by
12Z-15Z Tuesday. Expect mostly MVFR ceilings, but could have
occasional IFR ceilings at our southern terminals. With an influx
of low-level moisture, cloud cover should persist into late
morning/midday Tuesday, but ceilings should climb to 2500-3000ft
by or before 18Z. A possible exception is at KSOA, where lower
cloud ceilings could linger into early afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     60  86  63  81 /   0   0  10  50
San Angelo  57  83  61  79 /   0   0  20  50
Junction    61  83  61  81 /   0  10  10  50
Brownwood   60  84  60  81 /   0  10  10  40
Sweetwater  59  84  62  79 /   0   0  10  50
Ozona       59  81  62  75 /   0   0  10  50
Brady       63  83  63  80 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...19