540
FXUS64 KSJT 171057
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
457 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record or near record high temperatures through Tuesday.

- Rain chances increase Wednesday, peaking Thursday, before
  decreasing Friday. There`s a marginal to slight risk for
  excessive rainfall and flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 133 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Warm and dry conditions under upper-level ridging will persist
across West Central Texas through tonight, with above normal
temperatures expected today. High temperatures this afternoon will
range in the mid to upper 80s, with overnight lows falling into
the mid 50s to mid 60s. The daily record high temperature for
November 17th at Abilene is 86, and 88 for San Angelo, both of
which have another chance to break daily high temperature records
today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

All eyes are on an anticipated pattern change for the middle to
latter half of the upcoming week.  Models consistently show a strong
upper-level trough that will dig into southern California late
Tuesday and progress eastward Wednesday and Thursday. Another warm
day is expected for Tuesday with southerly flow in place, even as
cloud cover increases ahead of the trough.  Mid to upper-level
moisture and instability will increase substantially by Wednesday.
Ensemble probabilities continue to show medium to high chances of
rain and thunderstorms for Wednesday (40-50%) and Thursday (70-90%).
Early returns from hi-res models are hinting at thunderstorms
developing Wednesday afternoon as an upper-level impulse ejects out
of the main trough.  For now, SPC shows a Marginal risk of severe
weather that day.  Rain chances continue to ramp up on Wednesday
through Thursday as models show a Pacific-based cold front pushing
into west central Texas.  However, models have slowed down the
system from earlier runs in the past couple of days. Forecast
rainfall amounts have increased as a result. In fact, there is a
medium chance for 1-1.5 inches of rain in 72 hours ending Friday
morning.  However, there are still several moving parts at play with
this system, and the rainfall amounts, timing, and convective
elements could still change quite a bit over the next couple of
days.  For now, WPC is carrying a Marginal to Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall for Wednesday into Thursday.  Models diverge on
the upper-level pattern a bit for the next system that could affect
the region this weekend. Early indications are that more rainfall
could occur, but this will depend quite a bit on how much the first
system evolves.  For now, we`ll stick with PoPs around 20% for
Saturday into next Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 454 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Light winds
will increase to 8 to 12 knots by late this morning, with a few
gusts up to 22 knots at KABI, KSJT, and KBBD. Winds will diminish
again tonight and some potential for MVFR ceilings are possible
again across KJCT, KSOA, and KBBD overnight tonight into Tuesday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     89  61  85  63 /   0   0   0  10
San Angelo  87  58  83  61 /   0   0  10  20
Junction    89  61  84  60 /   0   0  10  10
Brownwood   89  60  84  60 /   0   0  10  10
Sweetwater  86  60  83  62 /   0   0   0  10
Ozona       85  60  80  62 /   0   0  10  10
Brady       87  64  82  63 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...TP