170
FXUS62 KTBW 190007
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
807 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 806 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

A few coastal showers have popped up across SWFL where greater
moisture pooling has taken place as boundaries have collided. These
are low-topped and moving off to the west at a decent pace. Thus,
rainfall accumulations will be low and limited, with most people
getting a few hundredths and only up to around half an inch.

Outside of SWFL, there hasn`t been much in the way of rainfall this
afternoon - just a couple isolated storms across the interior and
Nature Coast. Really, the main story today has been the heat. This
will continue to be the case this weekend as well. Conditions remain
borderline for a heat advisory, even as the overall moisture content
declines tomorrow. This will be due to the fact that daytime
temperatures should be able to climb a little higher tomorrow
afternoon, potentially offsetting the impacts of drier air.

Subsequent shifts will make the final determination on whether or
not a heat advisory is warranted. Regardless, remember to practice
good heat safety this weekend. Limit outdoor time, seek shade when
possible, and stay hydrated.

Overall, the forecast looks on track for the overnight period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Broad upper level ridging extends over Florida and the southeast
U.S. through the weekend. On the surface, high pressure between the
Bahamas and Bermuda ridges westward over Florida. This will keep a
predominant southeast wind flow over the region through the weekend.
This high pressure will bring in some slightly drier air as well,
which will limit rain and storm coverage through the weekend. Rain
and storm chances today through Sunday will be in the 20-40 percent
range. Daytime highs will reach 90-97 degrees each day through the
weekend with heat indices topping out just below advisory level
around 100-107 degrees. Some locations may reach record highs.

By Monday morning, the upper high and ridge has shifted westward
near Louisiana, while the surface high shifts westward as well and
will be located over the northeastern gulf. This will bring a shift
in winds to the northwest-north direction. A slight uptick in rain
and storm chances expected on Monday with 30-50 percent chance
region wide.

By Tuesday morning, the upper ridge has shifted farther
northwestward over the Mississippi River Valley, while the surface
high shifts westward over the western gulf. This will be the start
of a more unsettled weather pattern as an upper low and surface
troughing moves westward across southern Florida and into the
eastern gulf. Rain and storm chances ramp up to around 50-70 percent
starting Tuesday afternoon with this wetter pattern continuing
through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 806 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

There will be little in the way of significant aviation impacts this
weekend. However, there is a low (around 20%) chance for
thunderstorms primarily between 21Z and 24Z. This is not enough to
mention in TAFs at this time (other than at KLAL), but during this
window there could be some impacts to airports, with gusty winds and
MVFR to even IFR conditions possible for short windows if storms
develop and move over terminals. Rain chances increase again early
next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

High pressure moves westward across Florida and into the eastern
gulf waters through the weekend. This will produce light winds 10
knots or less, seas 2 feet or less and lower rain and storm chances
(20-40 percent) over the weekend. An upper low and troughing moves
across Florida and into the eastern gulf next week with higher rain
and storm chances expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Abundant moisture and light winds will continue through the weekend
precluding any fire weather concerns. Daily afternoon showers and
storms expected each day through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  80  94  81 /  40  10  20  10
FMY  96  76  96  77 /  40  20  20  10
GIF  96  76  96  76 /  50  20  20   0
SRQ  93  76  94  77 /  30  20  10  10
BKV  94  74  95  74 /  40  10  30  10
SPG  91  80  92  80 /  40  10  20  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Flannery
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Wynn