861
FXUS62 KTBW 100609
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
209 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025


.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Hazardous marine conditions will continue into the weekend.

 - Drier and slightly cooler conditions are expected later this
   weekend into next week.

.DISCUSSION...
Complex weather pattern over the region today as we start the
morning out with a stalled frontal boundary over the N FL
Peninsula combining with strong high pressure down the Eastern
Seaboard to produce breezy and saturated NE low level flow and
cloud shield over the state. A strengthening upper shortwave
moving into the Deep South deepens the surface low pressure area
off the FL E Coast late today in favorable baroclinic zone while a
tropical wave remains extended from the N Carib Nward into FL.
The developing Nor`easter is expected to continue to wrap Atlantic
moisture over the area today, tonight and into Saturday with
abundant clouds, gusty winds and fast moving showers or a few
storms this afternoon into evening with higher PoPs over interior
and SWFL zones.

The Nor`easter quickly moves up the eastern seaboard through the
weekend and into early next week. High pressure wrapping into the
region starting the second half of this weekend will bring a
drier and slightly cooler airmass into the area for fairly
pleasant Florida fall conditions most of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Abundant low level clouds area moving from the W Atlantic over
the state and producing widespread MVFR to LCL IFR cigs this
morning that are expected to continue through 12Z-14Z. Low level
clouds expected to improve with daytime heating lifting cigs thru
mid day as afternoon SHRA/TSRA develop and move over the
Peninsula with highest PoPs in SW FL and interior areas and will
keep VCSH/VCTS mention for now until around 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A tight pressure gradient will keep the breezy northeast winds,
choppy seas and hazardous marine conditions over coastal waters
with SCA and SCEC conditions today through Saturday. A cold front
will move over the Eastern Gulf Saturday with high pressure
building into the region to end the weekend and into next week.
The pressure gradient slowly relaxes as winds and seas slightly
subside Sunday and will then remain below headlines through early
next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Gusty easterly winds will keep the warm and humid conditions
in place today with fast-moving showers and a few storms this
afternoon and evening mainly over the interior and southwest
Florida region. A cold front will move through the region this
weekend, bringing drier air over the area, but RH values are
expected to remain above critical levels. No significant fog is
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  85  71  83  68 /  40  20  10  10
FMY  86  72  85  69 /  60  30  20  10
GIF  84  70  82  66 /  50  30  20  10
SRQ  85  71  83  69 /  40  20  10  10
BKV  82  67  81  62 /  30  20  10  10
SPG  83  72  81  69 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
     River FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Davis
DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...Flannery