Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
205 FXUS62 KTBW 220019 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 719 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy late night and early morning fog the next few days. - Sunny and dry with temperatures running several degrees above normal through early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 715 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 A few minor changes made to the existing forecast, mainly to refine fog in the grids, as high pressure at the surface and aloft continue to support mostly benign conditions locally aside from potential late night/early morning fog development. Warm and dry conditions otherwise continue with morning lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s and afternoon highs in the lower to mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 High pressure will hold over the region through tomorrow before a weak and mainly dry frontal boundary moves over the state on Sunday. This boundary will really only shift winds to the northwest/north briefly before high pressure builds over the southeast and turns winds back east/southeast for early next week. Really no changes to the ongoing forecast with warm and dry conditions persisting through most of next week. The next rain chances show up at the very end of the forecast period (next Friday) as the next system approaches. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 Mainly VFR expected through the period, however VCFG was introduced for bay area terminals TPA/PIE as well as interior terminals LAL/PGD where overall higher chances of fog development and potential associated MVFR/LCL IFR vsbys look to exist late overnight into Saturday morning. Maintained BR mention at remaining terminals where overall chances appear lower. Mostly light/variable winds overnight, turning onshore and increasing slightly at coastal terminals during the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 138 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 High pressure will remain over the waters through most of the weekend before a weak and mostly dry frontal boundary moves over the state. Light southeast winds will turn onshore with the sea breeze each day until the front comes on Sunday and winds turn more northwest to north and then back east again for early next week. Overall, no headlines are expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 138 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 Though dry conditions remain over the region, Red Flag conditions are not anticipated as RH values will be above critical levels. Patchy fog is expected tonight across much of the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 64 83 66 82 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 63 83 62 83 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 61 85 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 62 81 64 81 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 54 83 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 66 79 68 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Carlisle DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Flannery