215
FXUS63 KTOP 101119 AAA
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Topeka KS
519 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold today but warmer through the rest of the week.

- Next chance for rain appears to hold off until Sat-Sun.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Early morning satellite/sfc analysis shows 1036mb high centered
across KS/NE with the unusually cold (-41C)and compact upper low
across IL/IN region. An axis of stratus/high RH has developed
overnight across far eastern NE into NW MO. Weak shallow lift in
the 900-950mb layer this morning may allow for this narrow axis
of cloud cover to shift south and clip at least the far east
parts of the area this morning. Any weak lift weakens as the day
progresses and stratus should clear across the east. Expect
abundant sun elsewhere but cold temps with highs upper 30s east
to lower 40s west.

The high shifts east of the region tonight with return flow/LLJ
developing which should aid in strong WAA just above the sfc
with some gusty winds likely after midnight into sunrise Tues. A
weak cold front will sag into the area during the day Tuesday
however most areas will see much warmer temps in the 60s. Some
fire weather concern does exist on Tuesday for at least moderate
to high fire danger given low RH values around 30% by afternoon
however winds will weaken as the day wears on as the front
moves across the area so that should mitigate any more serious
concerns.

Beyond Tuesday the pattern looks mild (above avg temps) with
zonal or northwest flow aloft through late week leading to dry
conditions. Both ECMWF and GFS show the next longwave trough
approaching by the weekend with various ideas on how the energy
will evolve within the trough itself. For now the best chances
for precip appear Sat-Sun time frame but that may change
depending on how any cutoff low evolves and moves with time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 515 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Narrow ribbon of MVFR stratus continues to move SSW toward
TOP/FOE. Although it is diminishing in coverage with time it
does appear that TOP/FOE will see a few hours of sct to bkn MVFR
CIGs this morning before the stratus dissipates. The only other
potential issue is after 06Z tonight when LLWS could develop.
Given it is still beyond 18 hours will not insert it into the
fcst however later fcsts may add as warranted.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Omitt
AVIATION...Omitt/Poage