824
FXUS63 KTOP 081123
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
523 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm today and especially tomorrow, then turning cold again by the
weekend.

- Dry pattern continues. No notable precipitation chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Northwest flow remains in place this morning across the central US,
but compared to the past few days the main ridge/trough axes have
moved farther east. With southerly flow returning behind a departing
area of high pressure, this will allow for a more notable warmup
compared to our last couple weeks of chilly conditions. Highs climb
into the 40s today, with an additional surge of WAA boosting
temperatures into the 50s for Tuesday. Some spots may even reach 60
on Tuesday, especially western portions of the forecast area.

A sharper temperature gradient will set up across the middle part of
the country Wednesday into the weekend, as the eastern
trough/western ridge pattern amplifies. Confidence continues to
increase on the general day-to-day location of this gradient, though
small changes in the placement of upper waves will still likely lead
to some waffling in exact temperature forecasts. That said, it looks
like Wednesday and Thursday we`ll be on the warmer side of the
gradient, with the core of the cold staying to the north. This
should keep highs generally in the 40s, close to average. Heading
into the weekend, a stronger Canadian high will bring colder air
farther south across the region. Still questions on exact
temperatures, depending on the overall amplitude of the pattern, but
confidence is increasing (>80%) that we`ll see another day or two of
sub-freezing high temperatures. In regards to precipitation, it
appears we`ll continue to stay dry. This pattern favors Alberta
Clipper type systems tracking across the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest, staying mostly to our north. Can`t rule out some weak
frontogenetical band at some point through the weekend, but overall
the pattern is not favorable for rain/snow chances.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 523 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

MVFR to locally IFR stratus has settled back in across the
entire area. Forecast soundings suggest this should scatter out late
this morning, leaving behind VFR conditions with mostly clear skies
for the remainder of the period. Winds increase to around 10 kts
from the SSW by late morning as well, and stay 5-10 kts even
overnight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese