316
FXUS63 KTOP 291750
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1150 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and snow is winding down across the area with northwest
  winds becoming gusty. Gusts of 30-45 MPH are expected through
  the day before gradually weakening this evening and overnight.

- Wind chills drop to single digits tonight as a very cold air
  mass moves into the area.

- A batch of snow could bring one to three inches to portions
  of northeast KS on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

This morning, low pressure is moving through southern and
southeastern KS ahead of a mid-level open wave trough axis.
Warm air advection east of the low is allowing temperatures to
remain above freezing, or to warm to just above freezing in far
northern KS, while scattered showers become more numerous across
the area. That will remain the case until the low moves into
Missouri and strong northwest winds usher in colder temperatures
from west to east late this morning and early this afternoon.
There should be a quick transition to snow when the colder air
arrives, with possibly just a brief period of mixed
precipitation. Snow amounts will be limited due to the
progressive nature of the system and as dry air also moves in
with the cooler temps. Have maintained the forecast of around
half an inch of snow accumulation in far northern KS and a trace
of snow closer to I-70. Also, before a few snowflakes arrive
near and south of the Kansas Turnpike, a few isolated lightning
strikes cannot be ruled out with forecast soundings showing
around 200 J/kg of MUCAPE. Total QPF is between a half and one
inch of liquid precipitation today.

Northwest winds quickly increase behind the low, sustained between
15 and 30 mph, with gusts of 40 to 45 mph. A Wind Advisory is in
effect where gusts of 45 mph are expected, mainly across
central and southeastern KS. Went ahead and added Coffey and
Anderson Counties to the advisory with this forecast package.
Winds will subside this evening and tonight as the storm system
moves into the Great Lakes region.

Attention then turns to the frigid temperatures that arrive as high
pressure moves in from Canada. Temperatures tonight are expected to
drop into teens with wind chills in the single digits by sunrise on
Sunday. The cold air mass will remain in place as the next mid-level
trough moves over the area on Monday. Models continue to show a
batch of snow developing with that next wave. The LREF Grand
Ensemble has mean liquid QPF between a tenth and two-tenths of
an inch. With snow to liquid ratios around 15:1, that could
result in one to three inches of snow focused around and north
of I-70. Some model trends are showing the main band of snow
further north, so will have to watch trends in the coming days.

Dry weather is then expected for the rest of the week with
temperatures warming slightly but remaining below average for early
December.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1150 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Conditions have largely lifted to MVFR, although could see brief
drops to IFR through the afternoon. MVFR conditions will hold
into the evening, but confidence in when or if VFR conditions
return is low. Some guidance keeps MVFR cigs through much of the
period while other bring clear skies overnight. Have went
somewhere in between these two scenarios, but will need to
monitor trends this afternoon and evening and update as needed.
Northwest winds have become gusty and will remain so through the
day before gradually weakening overnight and into Sunday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ054-KSZ058-
KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Flanagan