592
FXUS63 KTOP 212352
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
552 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Scattered rain showers continue into this evening before tapering
 off tonight.

-The weekend starts off dry and warm before another system brings
 rain back to the region.

-Cooler weather moves into the area next week, precip chances
 continue to trend down during that timeframe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Today`s rainfall is associated with a passing mid-level shortwave
trough axis and surface low moving through southeastern KS this
afternoon. Many locations have received between 1.0 and 2.0
inches of moisture since yesterday evening, with a new daily
rainfall record set at KTOP. Scattered showers will continue to
occur northwest of the surface low as it moves through southern
MO and further east of the area this evening. Forecast
soundings show drier air starting to advect into the region as
lift decreases while a ridge axis builds overhead tonight. Areas
of fog could develop late tonight and early Saturday due to a
combination of soggy ground conditions, clearing skies and
light winds.

The early portion of the weekend will feature drier weather,
sunshine and temps warming to near 60 degrees as a ridge axis
becomes established aloft over the south-central US. Further west, a
large cutoff low near Baja California will eject northeast over the
CO Rockies by Sunday evening. Southerly flow ahead of that system
will advect more moisture into the region with pwats increasing to
around 1.0 inch. A few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE could also develop as
a surface low deepens just west of the forecast area. POPs
begin to increase from west to east Sunday night with 60-80%
chances for rain and maybe an embedded thunderstorm on Monday.
The LREF Grand Ensemble shows mean rainfall totals around a
quarter of an inch, and only a 10% chance of half an inch or
more.

Dry weather returns Tuesday while a northern stream trough axis
quickly follows the weakening Baja system through the Upper Midwest.
That will bring a cold front through northeast KS, followed by much
cooler weather by midweek. Trends for precipitation late in the
week continue to decrease, with confidence increasing in a cold
but dry Thanksgiving forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 522 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

No significant changes to the going forecast. Showers continue
to diminish over the next couple of hours with overall lift
waning. Clouds expected to be slow to clear the area as the
upper level system departs to the east with residual low level
moisture slow to be mixed with dry air as light winds remain
with little advection. Thus, there may only be a short window
for radiational cooling to allow any meaningful fog to form
around the terminals. Any visibility concerns to IFR or lower
expected to be patchy and relatively short in duration around
sunrise into mid-morning. By midday, more clearing takes place
with dry air mixing out any lingering low level clouds with mid
to high clouds left into the afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Drake