588
FXUS63 KTOP 270941
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
341 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Rain changes to snow on Saturday with minor accumulations possible,
 especially across far northern KS.

-A Canadian based air mass brings cold weather and frigid wind
 chills late this week and early next week.

-Another round of light snow is possible on Monday, but much
 uncertainty remains on where and how much.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Surface high pressure remains anchored over the central CONUS today.
Early morning water vapor imagery shows northwest flow persisting
aloft with the center of a large storm system north of the
Great Lakes. Another mid-level storm system, seen well off of
the Pacific Northwest coastline, will be the next to bring
precipitation to the region this weekend. Until then, today will
feature light winds, a passing mid-level cloud deck and
temperatures slightly less than normal in the low to mid 40s.
High pressure will slide east on Friday as that next system
moves over the Intermountain West region as an open wave. Winds
will begin to increase out of the southeast as surface low
pressure develops west of the area. Highs will be comparable to
today, mainly in the 40s.

Precipitation then develops late Friday and become widespread
across the forecast area on Saturday as the surface low tracks
through southern and southeastern KS. Rain is still expected to
change to snow from northwest to southeast as the low moves
into Missouri and colder air wraps in behind it. QPF has
increased in the current forecast, and decided to trend
temperatures down slightly on Saturday, closer to the wet bulb
temperature. With those changes, the probability for at least
1.0" of snowfall accumulation in far northern KS has increased
slightly, to around 40 percent. Locations south of there are
more likely to just see a trace, keeping impacts low. However,
strong northwest winds gusting to 30-40 mph could create low
visibility while snow is falling. Snow will end from west to
east Saturday afternoon and evening.

Temperatures then become the main concern as a 1035mb ridge builds
southward out of Canada on Sunday. High temperatures Sunday and
Monday will only be in the 20s. Wind chill values will be in
the teens Sunday afternoon and single digits by early Monday
morning. The next mid-level trough axis will also approach the
area on Monday. The better lift and moisture should remain well
to the south, however, long range models are showing some light
QPF over eastern KS. Given the cold air mass in place, any
precipitation would be snow with fairly high snow-to-liquid
ratios. For now, there remains quite of bit of uncertainty on
whether we will see snow and how much, but potential exists for
at least minor accumulations. Temperatures gradually moderate
into the middle of next week with dry weather expected beyond
Monday.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 940 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Any flurries or sprinkles look to remain south of the terminals
as a mid-level deck of clouds moves overhead with plenty of dry
low level air in place. Still expect the mid-level deck to exit
the region around 9-10Z leaving mostly scattered higher level
clouds in place for the balance of the period. Winds remain
light and generally variable through the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Drake