193
FXUS63 KTOP 121051
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
451 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm weather with above normal temperatures is forecast to
  continue into the weekend.

- A weather system may bring some rain on Monday, but there is high
  variability in the forecast so things could still change.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

08Z water vapor showed upper ridging over the western U.S. with an
upper trough over New England. This placed the central plains under
northwest flow. Surface obs showed weak high pressure over the
plains.

The next several days are expected to be relatively quite with no
significant wave progged to impact the region until early next week.
Northwest flow persists into Saturday with only some low level
moisture return. Meanwhile continued low level warm air advection
looks to keep a cap over the moisture return with only minor
perturbations expected. So dry and warm weather is forecast to
persist into Saturday. The weak high pressure in place today should
delay the stronger warm air advection to Thursday and keep highs
generally in the middle 60s. But for Thursday through Saturday,
confidence is good we should see highs in the upper 60s and middle
70s. This is supported by small spreads from the ensemble and NBM
solutions.

The main question in the forecast is what will the upper energy
coming out of the southwest look like early next week. Models have
struggled to show any consistency and the large spreads seen in the
ensembles is reflective of the low predictability of the pattern.
The general time line from the 00Z operational solutions is for a
wave lifting into the plains is during the day Monday. But models
continue to flip between an open and closed wave with various tracks
to the system. The timing of the system is captured in the NBM
initialization and have no confidence in any individual model run to
deviate from the mean at this point. So the forecast has some chance
POPs late Sunday night and Monday with temps much closer to normal
to start off next week. Until the models get a better grasp on the
pattern, the details in timing of precip and temps are probably
going to change as the spread between the 25 and 75 percentile is
almost 20 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 451 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Most guidance fails to generate restrictions to visibility, and the
HREF only has a 10 percent chance for fog in the river valley. Am not
confident shallow fog will develop, but the conditions are favorable
for some ground fog at TOP so will keep the tempo group. Otherwise
VFR conditions should prevail with some passing cirrus and light
winds within the surface ridge.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 237 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

             Record High   Forecast High
11/14
Topeka         77 (1897)        74
Concordia      74 (1990)        74

11/15
Topeka         78 (1950)        74
Concordia      77 (1952)        71

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters
CLIMATE...Wolters