005
FXUS63 KTOP 042345
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
645 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few stronger storms possible across north-central KS Sunday
evening along a slow moving cold front.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances spread eastward Sunday night into
Tuesday morning as the front sags southeast.

- More seasonable temperatures arrive behind the cold front and
  last through the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a deep trough over the
western CONUS, with strong ridging over the East. The approaching
trough is leading to lee cyclogenesis over the High Plains, as low
pressure deepens over northeast Colorado. The strengthening pressure
gradient across the state is leading to windy conditions today,
south winds gusting to 30-40 mph at times. Temperatures stay warm,
again climbing into the upper 80s by mid-afternoon, and only falling
into the 60s overnight as breezy conditions persist.

Tomorrow, a cold front will steadily press southeast towards our
area as the surface low (and associated mid-level shortwave) lifts
off to the northeast over the Northern Plains. Despite neutral to
even rising 500 mb heights, short term guidance is consistent on
frontal convergence and isentropic ascent being enough to develop
thunderstorms along the front in far north-central KS. Instability
(750 J/kg ML CAPE) and mid-level lapse rates (6.5 C/km) are rather
unimpressive, but with 30-40 kts of effective shear can`t rule out a
few stronger storms. The best window to see some small hail or 50-60
mph wind gusts would be 6-10 pm, before the boundary layer becomes
increasingly stable after sunset. Could also see some local rainfall
amounts of 1-3" across this north-central KS area, as boundary
parallel shear vectors may support some training convection.

While Sunday evening and night across north-central Kansas will be
the best chance for appreciable rainfall, we`ll likely see a few
scattered storms continue Monday into Tuesday morning as the front
slowly pushes southeast. Expecting generally lower rainfall amounts
with southeast extent into east-central Kansas. May still see some
80s across east-central KS Monday, but by Tuesday everywhere should
be notably cooler behind the front. Cloud cover may keep some
northern areas in the 60s all day.

Spread in temperatures and precipitation chances greatly increases
for later in the week and into next weekend. This uncertainty is
largely tied to the evolution of an upper low over the West Coast
Thursday into Friday. How much this low becomes cut off from the
main jet stream will play a role in the downstream pattern, and
whether the upper flow over our area stays more northwesterly or
southwesterly. For now though, it appears we`ll see a slight warming
trend into the latter portions of the week as well as a few low-end
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. The low-level jet
at 1500 feet will increase from the south-southwest 40 to 45
KTS but surface winds will remain at or above 10 KTS through
13Z, thus the low-level wind shear Tonight through 13Z will be
in the 24 to 29 KT range. Surface winds will pick up to 13 to 16
KTS with gusts of 22 to 26 KTS after 14Z and remain gusty
through the afternoon hours of Sunday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Gargan