421
FXUS63 KTOP 170908
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
308 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small chances for showers mainly east today and this evening.

- Greater chances for showers and possibly thunderstorms late this
  week.

- Mild temperatures through Thursday then closer to normal
  Friday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Upper low churning over the central Rockies early this morning
shifts east across Nebraska today into tonight. Somewhat muted
moisture return is underway ahead of it with scattered/broken stratus
deck moving NNE into southeastern Kansas. Isentropic upglide looks
the most focused over far eastern Kansas today, with some guidance
eroding capping enough for some modest instability. Have kept small
shower chances in this area much of the day. Coverage of the stratus
deck is in question and brings some model decent spreads of high
temperatures today. Have backed off a bit given the likelihood of
decent cover into early afternoon. Southeast winds will be somewhat
breezy much of the day too. Could see a few showers from sunset into
the mid evening in the northeast where forcing with the low moves
through with still modest moisture. Winds and cloud cover should
diminish overnight with a surface low moving in which brings some
concern for fog. Confidence is too low for inclusion at this time.

Weak cold-air advection should bring slightly cooler temperatures
Tuesday. Surface high pressure builds in late Tuesday into early
Wednesday but cirrus looks plentiful downstream of an upper low off
the southern California coast to keep fog potential low. This
wave is still progged to bring wet conditions late this week,
though timing is still uncertain. A continued slower trend is
still present with latest GFS and ECMWF keeping mainly dry
conditions in place until Thursday night but wet through Friday
and NBM PoPs seem to be trending this way. Some minor
instability could support some thunder but temperatures remain
warm enough for only rain. Highs look to remain in the 60s
Wednesday and Thursday in modest WAA but somewhat cooler in and
after the precip Friday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1042 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Main aviation concern is the potential for MVFR cigs to reach
terminals Monday morning. The current cloud deck in Oklahoma is
VFR, but guidance depicts this area of clouds to be high-end MVFR.
So with the current low bias in the height of clouds, have maintained
a more optimistic forecast. However, there is a chance for at least
a few hours of MVFR cig at all sites, potentially even lingering
through the day Monday. Wind increase from the southeast Monday
morning with some gusts around 20kts before weakening by 22z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Flanagan