398
FXUS63 KTOP 300450
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1050 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Wind Advisory continues through 6 PM this evening for
  portions of north central and east central Kansas.

- Dry, but cold tonight into Sunday. Wind chills will be in the single
  digits by sunrise Sunday and only reach the 20s by Sunday
  afternoon.

- A fast-moving round of snow will impact the area Sunday night through
  the day Monday. Generally expecting 1-3 inches of snow to
  accumulate across the area.

- Below-normal temperatures continue through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

A mid-level shortwave and attendant cold front have pushed east of
the area this afternoon, allowing for precipitation to end and much
colder air to build in across northeast Kansas. Gusty northwest
winds have taken control with sustained winds of 20-25 MPH and
gusts of 35-45 MPH observed. A Wind Advisory remains in effect
through 6 PM this evening for areas along and southwest of a
Washington to Manhattan to Garnett line. Winds remain breezy
overnight with the main uncertain revolving around cloud cover.
Some guidance keeps low clouds in place with while others have
clearing skies. Clouds continue to stream in from the north, so
think clouds will hold on through at least most of the overnight
period, perhaps even into Sunday morning. It will be cold
regardless of cloud cover with lows Sunday morning in the teens
and wind chills in the single digits! Not much warming will take
place through the day with highs only reaching into the 20s.

A positively-tilted, fast-moving shortwave ejects across the Plains
Sunday night through the day Monday. With cold air in place,
confidence is high in all precipitation being snow with this wave.
Given the progressive nature, precipitation amounts will be on the
lighter side, generally between 0.15-0.25" of liquid. However, SLRs
will be above climatology given the cold airmass in place, likely in
the 13-16:1 range. Even with light QPF amounts, the SLR/QPF
combination will produce a widespread 1-3 inches of snow across
the area. There is still a spread of about 0.1" of QPF between
the 25-75th percentiles of ensembles with the majority (75% of
ENS, GEFS, and GEPS members) falling within the 0.1-0.3" QPF
range. There is a long tail on the high end with about 15
percent of the members showing greater than 0.3" of QPF. There
are also some differences latitudinally in the location of
heaviest snow with a subtle northward shift noted in guidance.
With all of that said, there is high confidence in measurable
snow falling across the entire area, medium confidence in a
swath of 1-3 inches within the forecast area, and low
confidence in any amounts exceeding 3". Could still see a shift
in the track of this system or an increase/decrease in expected
QPF and snow amounts, but this looks to be a stoutly advisory-
level snow event with minor to moderate impacts to travel from
falling and accumulating snow.

Snow comes to an end Monday evening, leaving dry conditions through
at least mid-week. Low-level winds briefly become southerly on
Tuesday before another cold front brings in a reinforcing shot of
cold air for the middle of the week. Frontal passage is favored to
be dry, but will keep temperatures below-normal with lows ranging
from the single digits to the low 20s and highs in the 20s and 30s.
There is a signal for slightly warmer temperatures and low chances
for precipitation by the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Ceilings have settled right around the VFR/MVFR border,
and should stay around this level overnight while gradually
scattering out by sunrise. Northwest winds are still a bit gusty (20-
30 kts at times) towards KTOP and KFOE, and this should remain the
case until close to sunrise. Winds stay around 10 kts during the
day, before becoming lighter and more northeasterly tomorrow evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Reese