774
FXUS63 KTOP 072333
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
533 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures are expected to be on a roller coaster this week.

- Generally a dry weather pattern is forecast to continues.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Northwest flow remained over the Great Plains with a shortwave
moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest per the 19Z water vapor
imagery. Surface obs showed high pressure building into the region
with the surface ridge centered over MN.

A weak shortwave is progged to move just north and east of the
forecast area this evening with the better saturation and odds for
measurable precip looking to remain north across NEB, but there is a
small chance that some flurries are spotted across the northern
counties. This is kind of the story for the next seven days as
models show continued northwest flow with periodic shortwaves
tracking just north and east of the forecast area. Cluster analysis
of the 00Z ensembles shows the main variability among the models is
in the amplitude of the pattern. So there isn`t a lot of differences
from the various solutions in the overall pattern. The main
variation is in the magnitude of the surface ridges and subtle
differences in the track of the shortwave energy. This means the NBM
is probability a good iteration to the forecast with low skill in
picking out one solution to make adjustments.

Occasional waves moving through the plains are expected to cause ups
and downs in the temps. After todays`s surface high, temps are
forecast to trend warmer through Tuesday with readings in the middle
50s to near 60 Tuesday afternoon. Another Canadian high pressure
system is progged to move south into the central plains late in the
week. But this is when those differences in the strength of the
ridge show up with the GFS remaining to quickest and coldest
solution. See no reason to deviate from the NBM solution at this
point which brings a strong cool down to the forecast area for
Friday and Saturday.

Precip chances appear to be pretty slim as long as the shortwave
track remains just north and east of the area. 12Z GFS/ECMWF still
hint at some light snow Wednesday night along the NEB state line.
Probabilities for measurable precip from the NBM are in the 10 to 20
percent range.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Trends in clearing stratus have continued for KTOP and KFOE over
the first few hours of the TAF as dry air advects in from the
northeast. As the surface ridge slides south and east this
evening, some VFR stratus may advect back in at KTOP and KFOE,
but guidance keeps it above 3kft. Winds will back towards the
south, increasing out of the south/southwest by Monday afternoon
with mostly clear skies.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Griesemer