495
FXUS63 KTOP 091116
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
516 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm today. Turning breezy tonight behind cold front.

- Up and down temperatures through Friday, then colder for the
weekend.

- No notable precipitation chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Water vapor imagery this morning shows our persistent eastern trough
western ridge still in place. The pattern is shifted a bit east
compared to much of the last week, as a potent jet streak moves onto
the Pacific Northwest coast. As the aforementioned jet streak
quickly moves towards the Plains today, the first in a series of
Alberta clippers will move southeast from Alberta (as the name
suggests) towards the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Strong
WAA and downsloping 850-700 mb winds will help temperatures
warm to near 60 today, a stark change compared to the past two
weeks. As the clipper passes by to our north tonight though, it
will push a sharp cold front southward through the area. The
core of the cold will stay to our north, but will give us enough
of a glancing blow to keep temperatures in the 40s. Also can`t
completely rule out a brief sprinkle right along the front,
given strong low-level ascent. A perhaps more notable impact
will be gusty northwest winds behind the cold front. Gusts 30-40
mph will be common late tonight into tomorrow morning, and
could flirt with wind advisory criteria towards the Nebraska
border.

Northwest flow persists across the Plains through the rest of the
week and into the weekend. The strong upper jet will be indicative
of the strong baroclinicity across the region, with very cold
temperatures to our northeast and very warm temperatures to our
southwest. Temperatures have trended slightly warmer each day, as
the overall pattern has trended slightly more zonal and less
amplified. Still, we should see a shot of colder air for the
weekend, with a day or two of temperatures near/below freezing.
Similar to today`s system, within the strong jet we`ll see a few
more Alberta Clippers passing to our north. Can`t rule out brief
flurries with any related frontal passage, but overall the pattern
supports continued dry conditions. Beyond the weekend, there are
initial hints of ridging building back in over the Plains. Remains
to be seen the exact strength and location of this ridge, but it
should at least bring somewhat warmer temperatures for early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 516 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Main impact for this TAF period is a strong cold front
that will move through late this evening. Southwest winds increase
to 10-15 kts during the day, then switch to the northwest at around
15 kts behind the front with gusts 25-30 kts. Expecting VFR
conditions to persist, with any lower stratus behind the front
staying to the northeast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese