Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 281738
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1138 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 221 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Northwest flow aloft and a retreating surface high pressure has
given way to return flow and a warm frontal passage later this
morning. The warm front currently stretches from northwest to
southeast KS just south of the forecast area. This front will lift
northward across the area causing winds to shift to the southwest.
Winds just above the surface have already shifted to the southwest
advecting warmer temps and allowing a decent inversion to develop.
Within this shallow inversion a fairly strong low level jet has
begun to develop overhead, and will reach peak winds around 50 kts
between now and late morning. With clear skies and the advancing
warm front daytime heating should allow some of these winds to mix
down to the surface. The low level jet will maximize over the
southeast half of the forecast area and veer to the east through
the morning. Expect that the strongest wind gusts occur just after
sunrise once mixing begins. These gusts could exceed 35 mph for a
brief period late this morning and early afternoon for locations
along and east of the turnpike. As winds very gradually decrease
temperatures will quickly rise into the 50s by noon with highs in
the mid 50s to low 60s. Warmest locations will be north central KS
closer to the edge of the thermal ridge. Tonight mostly clear
skies with the exception of a few high clouds across the area
should allow another inversion to take place. The NAM is the most
aggressive saturating the lower levels just below the inversion
which would mean stratus. Not fully confident in this solution as
the other models keep these levels drier. Also, the surface
pressure gradient is not forecast to change much overnight
therefore do not expect winds to fully decouple. Overnight low
temps drop into the mid 30s in north central KS and mid 40s in
southeast KS. This is where the pressure gradient is slightly
stronger resulting in more mixing.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 221 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

By 12Z Saturday, temperatures at 850mb are already around 15-18C,
with the thermal ridge remaining anchored in place over Eastern
Kansas for the afternoon. Have started with highs in the lower to
middle 60s, but if deeper mixing ensues, forecast could even be a
few degrees too cool. Winds also become less gusty for Saturday as
pressure gradient slowly weakens across the area. Next cold front
is on rapid approach from the north northwest overnight Saturday
night, but until it gets here overnight lows are likely to stay
well mixed into the 30s and 40s.

Sunday will seem like two completely different days between the
morning and the evening. The morning starts out well mixed into
the warmer mid level air, with mild overnight lows. North Central
Kansas will have the front through around sunrise, with it
spreading quickly southeast with time and likely through all of
the forecast area around the noon hour. Strong gusty northerly
winds around 20 mph with higher gusts will continue for much of
the morning and afternoon as the system passes. Precipitation does
still appear to remain focused south of our forecast area, so
although front is windy and cold, does still seem on track to be a
dry forecast. Temperatures in the far southeast counties may start
off in the 50s but would be expected to fall throughout the day.
Lows in the teens anticipated on Sunday night. As the surface high
moves into the upper midwest on Monday, highs are held to around
30.

Tues-Fri...Generally zonal flow across the central U.S. leaves
the later forecast days subject to periodic intrusions of colder
air as systems pass across the northern States. Tuesday warms
back up as thermal ridge moves over northern Kansas, and the next
front is poised to clip the area. Model differences continue for
clipper system on Thursday, and will keep the slight chance for
rain or snow in the east, but may be able to remove if weaker
solutions verify.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Southwest winds of
10 to 15 kts will decrease to less than 10 kts after 23Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53





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