809
FXUS63 KTOP 290449
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1049 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain for most of the area tonight into tomorrow morning,
  briefly changing to snow late tomorrow morning. Little to no
  snow accumulation expected.

- Gusty northwesterly wind up to 50 mph tomorrow afternoon for
  portions of central Kansas.

- Overnight lows in the teens most nights Saturday through the
  next week.

- First widespread accumulating snow of the season possible
  Monday. Amounts look on the low end (few inches) at this
  point.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

A fast-moving upper-level trough is digging into the northern
Plains today. A surface low will develop over southern Kansas
tonight and push through our area by tomorrow morning. Ahead of
this low, moist, easterly flow was leading to persistent cloud
cover and some light drizzle. Some freezing drizzle is possible
across far northern Kansas into the evening hours as
temperatures remain near or slightly below freezing. However, as
the surface low deepens and moves into central Kansas warmer air
will surge northward and temperatures will actually rise
overnight. Precipitation will also become more widespread and
noticeable, with generally 0.25 - 0.5 inches of rain across the
area. Strong cold air advection will move in behind the low
tomorrow morning. There could be a brief transition period to
snow late tomorrow morning and early afternoon across northern
Kansas before the low and associated lift exit the area. With
such a dynamic system, snowfall rates could be high enough for
a light coating of snow to fall, despite how quickly
precipitation will exit the area. Additionally, strong wind
will develop in the wake of the departing low. Wind gusts up to
50 mph will be possible across portions of central Kansas with
steep low-level lapse rates and sharp pressure rises. Wind will
diminish Saturday evening.

Surface high pressure builds in Sunday. Overnight lows Saturday
into Sunday will likely fall into the teens and temperatures
will struggle to rise to 30 degrees by Sunday afternoon.
Another system moves through Monday. With cold air in place, all
snow is expected with this system. Models continue to depict a
fast-moving, positively tilted trough swinging through Monday
late morning and afternoon. Typically, with this kind of setup
we would expect minimal snow amounts, which is exactly what
models are suggesting. One to three inches seems to be the model
consensus at this time, with higher probabilities of one inch
over three inches. With temperatures in the teens and 20s at the
surface and even colder aloft, snow ratios should be rather
high, which is why amounts around three inches seem possible
with this setup. The cold pattern continues through the rest of
the week with lows generally in the teens and highs in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1037 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

The forecast remains mostly on track for the 06Z forecast.
However, have delayed the onset of lower Cigs slightly more into
the core of the overnight period. The first round of -SHRA and
even some embedded sleet has been shifting east of the
terminals. Expect that -DZ will now spread across the area in
advance the main storm system west of the region. As the system
intensifies, winds will generally continue to increase. Radar
profiler data suggest that marginal LLWS both directionally and
speed are in place so have continued mention in the TAFs. Still
expect a period of IFR dropping to LIFR at times into sunrise
and through mid-morning. Winds increase from the NW into late
morning and through the afternoon with improving Cig/Vis as dry
air mixes in with the colder airmass behind the front and into
the last 6hrs of the period, skies may actually clear
completely.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Drake