001
FXUS63 KTOP 282337
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
537 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain for most of the area tonight into tomorrow morning,
  briefly changing to snow late tomorrow morning. Little to no
  snow accumulation expected.

- Gusty northwesterly wind up to 50 mph tomorrow afternoon for
  portions of central Kansas.

- Overnight lows in the teens most nights Saturday through the
  next week.

- First widespread accumulating snow of the season possible
  Monday. Amounts look on the low end (few inches) at this
  point.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

A fast-moving upper-level trough is digging into the northern
Plains today. A surface low will develop over southern Kansas
tonight and push through our area by tomorrow morning. Ahead of
this low, moist, easterly flow was leading to persistent cloud
cover and some light drizzle. Some freezing drizzle is possible
across far northern Kansas into the evening hours as
temperatures remain near or slightly below freezing. However, as
the surface low deepens and moves into central Kansas warmer air
will surge northward and temperatures will actually rise
overnight. Precipitation will also become more widespread and
noticeable, with generally 0.25 - 0.5 inches of rain across the
area. Strong cold air advection will move in behind the low
tomorrow morning. There could be a brief transition period to
snow late tomorrow morning and early afternoon across northern
Kansas before the low and associated lift exit the area. With
such a dynamic system, snowfall rates could be high enough for
a light coating of snow to fall, despite how quickly
precipitation will exit the area. Additionally, strong wind
will develop in the wake of the departing low. Wind gusts up to
50 mph will be possible across portions of central Kansas with
steep low-level lapse rates and sharp pressure rises. Wind will
diminish Saturday evening.

Surface high pressure builds in Sunday. Overnight lows Saturday
into Sunday will likely fall into the teens and temperatures
will struggle to rise to 30 degrees by Sunday afternoon.
Another system moves through Monday. With cold air in place, all
snow is expected with this system. Models continue to depict a
fast-moving, positively tilted trough swinging through Monday
late morning and afternoon. Typically, with this kind of setup
we would expect minimal snow amounts, which is exactly what
models are suggesting. One to three inches seems to be the model
consensus at this time, with higher probabilities of one inch
over three inches. With temperatures in the teens and 20s at the
surface and even colder aloft, snow ratios should be rather
high, which is why amounts around three inches seem possible
with this setup. The cold pattern continues through the rest of
the week with lows generally in the teens and highs in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 526 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

This period should see a gradual transition from lowering Cigs
to the onset of -SHRA, or a period of -DZ, before eventually
transitioning to -RA by around sunrise for a few hours during
the morning before conditions improve into the afternoon hours.
Into the 06Z period, expect VFR conditions to degrade to
marginal VFR then to IFR with possible period of LIFR depending
on how heavy the precipitation becomes which would bring down
the overall Vis restrictions for brief periods of time.
Confidence in early morning -SHRA to -RA is moderate to high but
the near term is somewhat lower confidence giving way to the
PROB30 mention and then TEMPO groups. Also, confidence in LLWS
conditions is low but do still see a brief window of opportunity
where low level winds could increase as the overall low pressure
system intensifies ahead of FROPA.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Drake