038
FXUS63 KTOP 041726
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1126 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold today, with highs around or below freezing.

- Milder temperatures Friday and Saturday, followed by another brief
colder shot for Sunday into Monday.

- Low chance of some light rain/snow Saturday night across northeast
Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Surface high pressure is now centered over Iowa and is continuing to
drop south. Skies are beginning to clear and winds are becoming
light near the Nebraska border, which should help these spots drop
into the single digits through sunrise. Farther south, cloud cover
and winds have stayed just high enough that we should avoid breaking
any records unless something changes quick. The surface ridge axis
stays near the area today, keeping winds light and temperatures
around or below freezing.

Friday into Saturday, southerly winds become reestablished on the
back side of the high, allowing max temperatures to rebound into the
40s. We`ll still be a bit below average though, given continued
northwest flow aloft with broad troughing over the eastern 2/3
of the CONUS. Within this northwest flow, we`ll see a low-
amplitude shortwave trough approach late Saturday, bringing an
inverted surface trough across the area. While the GFS was a
southern outlier yesterday, other guidance has trended a bit
south over the past 24 hours. The most likely scenario remains
for most of the precipitation to stay north across Nebraska and
Iowa, but around 20- 30% of ensemble guidance now keeps the
system far enough south to deliver some light rain/snow to
northeast Kansas. So we`ll continue to keep an eye on this,
especially as this seems to our main chance for precipitation
over the next week.

Colder temperatures return behind this system for Sunday. Highs
again stay around or below freezing, with Monday morning lows in the
teens. Uncertainty increases by the middle of next week, but seems
reasonable to expect a brief warmup Tue/Wed ahead of the next
shortwave within the persistent northwesterly flow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

VFR conditions will continue with clear skies and light winds.
Winds are in the process of switching towards the south as of
forecast issuance, and should remain there through most of the
period. A weak boundary will allow winds to turn more to the
southwest at the very end of this period and beyond.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Updated at 331 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Record Low Temperatures for Dec 4...

           Current Record   Forecast

Topeka      8, set in 1902     11
Concordia  -2, set in 1886     11

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Picha
CLIMATE...Poage/Reese