219
FXUS64 KTSA 090109
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
709 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 657 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

 - Patchy fog is possible late tonight into Tuesday morning mainly
   near and south of the Ouachitas, especially in the valleys.

 - Above average temperatures are expected Tuesday to Thursday before
   another cold front brings below average temps to close out the
   week.

 - Precipitation chances remain very low over the next 7 days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 708 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Evening surface analysis depicts an area of high pressure over the
lower Mississippi Valley with lee side troughing over the central
High Plains. An east to southeast wind will prevail tonight in
most areas, keeping temps from cratering overnight. The latest
data indicates development of low cloud and possibly some fog from
the Ouachitas down to the Red River Valley in a low level moisture
return regime. Sky grids have been updated with the latest short
term data, and some patchy fog has been inserted into the grids.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Skies will finally clear this afternoon for all locations with
temperatures warming to near seasonal averages in the mid to upper
40s. The surface ridge axis will shift southeastward by
afternoon, allowing a return of light southerly winds which will
stay constant or gradually increase overnight with Lee troughing
developing over the High Plains. This will keep overnight lows
from falling too much tonight. Lows generally in the low to mid
30s are expected, though some more sheltered, generally cooler
valley locations will likely dip into the 20s.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

The upper air pattern over the next week will lead to mostly a
temperature forecast through this forecast period as a series of
dry cold fronts pass through the area. The pressure gradient will
tighten further on Tuesday leading to breezy southwesterly
(downslope) flow spreading over the region. This regime is
conducive to a quick warmup over eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas for tomorrow. Temperatures will rise into the 60s for
most locations under mostly sunny skies. The breezy winds,
relatively dry air, and warm temperatures could locally raise some
fire weather concerns as we are about two weeks removed from any
kind of appreciable rainfall over the area. Leaned on the warmer
end of guidance for highs tomorrow as the NBM is generally too low
in these quick transition periods. A weak front pushes through
the region on Wednesday knocking temps back a bit, though still
above average. Temps will rise again on Thursday ahead of a
stronger, Arctic front scheduled to arrive on Friday. Guidance has
trended warmer with temperatures behind this front as the upper
air pattern is not conducive for a significant Arctic intrusion
into the Southern Plains. The stronger push of Arctic air appears
to stay north and east of the local region. Still, a glancing blow
will lead to colder temperatures through the weekend. Given the
uncertainty and range of guidance, stuck with the NBM blend for
temps during this period.

No precipitation is forecast through the next week with
predominately dry northwest flow aloft over the region.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

VFR conditions will prevail with some passing high cloud. A couple
things to watch for will be the potential for low clouds Tuesday
morning at KMLC and KFSM. The latest short-term guidance indicates
low level moisture return and a low cloud cig, but mainly south of
the ridge tops of the Ouachitas. Given low chances, have left low
cloud mention out of KMLC for now. Also, there is some potential
for some spotty low cloud in the lower Ark River Valley Tuesday
morning. Elected to use a tempo sct cloud mention for now given
low chances for a cig.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   33  62  43  56 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   31  61  39  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   33  63  41  59 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   29  61  40  56 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   32  58  42  55 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   32  58  44  52 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   32  60  42  57 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   32  58  41  54 /   0   0   0   0
F10   33  62  42  59 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   31  61  40  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30