Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
159 FXUS64 KTSA 270543 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1143 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1142 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 - Slightly below average temperatures and mostly dry today and Friday. - The next storm system arrives Friday night and Saturday bringing strong winds, rain, and low thunderstorm chances. - Very cold temperatures with at least low potential for impactful winter weather early next week. Please monitor for forecast updates as more details become available over the next several days. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 1142 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 A cool airmass is in place, but low clouds will likely keep temperatures a bit above their potential this morning. Kept most areas in the low to mid 30s in the north and upper 30s in the south. However, if skies clear, temperatures could go a bit lower. With light pressure gradients, winds will be minimal during the day today. There will be a mixture of clouds and sun, with temperatures warming 1-3F over yesterday, into the low to mid 50s in the north, and upper 50s in the south. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1142 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 Breezy southerly winds will develop Friday with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Dry conditions are expected during the day, but moisture levels will increase with time. A strong low level jet Friday evening will steepen mid level lapse rates and saturate the mid levels, with an upper level jet also impinging on the area. Widespread rain with a few embedded thunderstorms, especially south of I-40, will then develop. Rain will continue into Saturday before moving east. Total rainfall will generally be 0.25 to 0.50 inches in northeast OK to 0.50 to 1.00 inch for southeast OK into northwest AR. A few areas could see locally higher or lower totals. A strong cold front will then push through from northwest to southeast during the day Saturday, with precipitation ending behind the front. Very cold air will dump into the area late Saturday into Sunday. Low temperatures Sunday morning will be well below freezing, coldest in the north. There is still sizable uncertainty in terms of how fast the cold air arrives as well as how intense it will be. The CMC is among the coldest guidance with 925 mb temps of -10 to -12C, whereas the GFS only reaches -6C. This will naturally affect the forecast highs Sunday. Typically arctic air moves in a little colder and faster than most guidance, so leaned the forecast in that direction, with highs in the low to mid 30s in the north and upper 30s to low 40s in the south. Cold conditions persist Monday as a weak storm system approaches from the west. Guidance remains uncertain, with some showing just clouds, others showing mixed precip with perhaps some freezing rain or sleet potential, while other guidance shows the potential for a few inches of snow. The overall most likely outcome still appears to be for little to no impactful winter weather, but this will need to be monitored closely as models have trended wetter for this period. For now, included snow or a mixture of rain and snow for areas near and north of I-40 on Monday but no accumulation. If the wetter solutions verify, high temperatures would need to be lowered a couple of degrees from the current mid to upper 30s. A quick moderation trend will follow with highs in the 40s Tuesday and 50s Wednesday. Dry or mostly dry weather is also anticipated. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 High and mid clouds with VFR ceilings over the area now will decrease late tonight and Thursday morning. Winds will be light. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 50 34 54 34 / 0 10 0 0 FSM 54 38 57 35 / 0 10 0 0 MLC 53 35 57 34 / 0 10 0 0 BVO 50 32 52 29 / 0 10 0 0 FYV 49 33 51 31 / 0 10 0 0 BYV 47 34 50 31 / 0 10 0 0 MKO 50 36 54 34 / 0 10 0 0 MIO 48 35 50 31 / 0 10 0 0 F10 51 35 55 33 / 0 10 0 0 HHW 55 38 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...08