621
FXUS64 KTSA 301125
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
525 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1041 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

 - Cold and breezy conditions tonight behind a cold front. Wind
chills are expected to be in the teens by daybreak north of I-40.

 - Cold temperatures will persist through Tuesday morning. Light mixed
   wintry precipitation is expected for some areas Monday into
   Monday night. There is a low to medium chance for minor
   impacts, mainly in the terrain of SE OK and NW AR.

 - Temperatures warm somewhat into the middle of next week before
   another potent cold front arrives.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1041 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Breezy northerly winds will continue through the night. Low clouds
will gradually thin out leading to clear skies. 925 hPa temps will
fall as low as -8 to -10C, with lows in the 20s across the area
(lowest in the north). These factors will support very low wind
chill values of 10-20 F near dawn.

Some mid and high level clouds will stream into the area during the
afternoon helping to keep temperatures down a bit. AI model guidance
is a bit cooler during the afternoon than conventional NWP guidance.
This is a pattern where models typically warm the surface too
aggressively anyway, so kept MaxT`s a bit below the NBM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1041 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

A storm system will then approach the area Monday from the west as a
closed low transforms into a positively tilted trough. As the trough
approaches a weak surface low will develop to the west of the area.
A good chunk of the guidance wants to develop light ESE or even
SE flow Monday morning. As a result, low temperatures warm up
fairly substantially in spite of the cold airmass in place, with
low temperatures into Monday morning right near freezing. The rest
of the guidance, including AI guidance, keeps light ENE flow, and
as a result the low temperatures are colder. This is another area
where conventional NWP models are often too quick to reverse the
flow and warm us up. This is especially true given that we will
still have high pressure to the northeast. The forecast was
adjusted with this in mind to keep low temperatures in the mid to
upper 20s in the north and low 30s in the south.

Warm advection is expected to result in areas of rain, sleet, or
freezing drizzle near and southeast of I-44, and north of I-40
Monday morning. Additionally, areas of higher elevation anywhere
in southeast OK will be at risk. Total accumulation will not be
much, but a light glaze will be possible. Travel impacts are not
expected in most locations given the marginal thermal profile, but
isolated slick roadways are possible. As the upper level low
passes by later Monday, some light snow may develop, mainly north
of I-40 and especially in northwest AR. Maintained some minimal
snow accumulation for these areas, but locally up to 1 inch
remains possible. One last surge of cold air is anticipated into
Tuesday morning, with lows in the teens to mid 20s.

A brief warming trend follows, with highs back into the upper 40s to
low 50s by Wednesday. No rain will occur during this period. Another
potent cold front will blast into the area Thursday, with very
chilly air returning. Ensemble guidance has trended wetter for
Friday as warm and moist air moves in aloft. For now, the
majority of guidance says rain would still be favored, but a
subset of guidance shows the potential for wintry precipitation.
Left mostly rain in the forecast, but included some mixed precip
near the KS border where the potential is highest. Warmer and
drier weather begins to return towards next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Widespread VFR will continue to prevail, with mid/high level
clouds, through the next 24 hours. Winds are expected to veer from
north to northeast by this evening, and eventually east-northeast
by the end of the TAF period, and will slowly decrease through
the daytime. Occasional gusts 20-25 knots will be possible
through the morning hours this morning.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   35  28  34  23 /   0  10  30  10
FSM   41  29  36  26 /   0  10  30  20
MLC   39  29  39  23 /   0  10  30  10
BVO   34  26  34  18 /   0  10  40  10
FYV   36  25  36  21 /   0  10  30  20
BYV   33  25  31  21 /   0  10  30  30
MKO   37  29  35  21 /   0  10  30  10
MIO   32  25  32  19 /   0  10  40  30
F10   37  28  36  21 /   0  10  20  10
HHW   43  31  36  24 /   0  10  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...67