804
FXUS64 KTSA 241749
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1149 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1145 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

  - Light rain, drizzle, and patchy fog lingers into tonight for
    portions of the forecast area, especially north of I-40.

  - Strong and dry cold front on Tuesday afternoon will drop
    temperatures slightly below average through the rest of the
    week.

  - Cooler and wetter weather pattern arrives Friday night and
    into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Most of the moderate to heavy rain has now shifted south and east
of the forecast area. Total rainfall amounts over the past 12-24
hours vary, especially from north to south. Highest amounts fell
across far southeast OK, near the Red River, generally 1 to 2
inches (locally higher amounts). Meanwhile, locations near the
OK/KS and MO/AR borders received the least amount of rain,
generally a tenth to a quarter of an inch. GOES-19 water vapor
imagery shows the center of the upper low over southwest KS and a
pronounced mid-level dry slot beginning to make its way into
eastern OK. The upper-level low opens up as a wave and will slide
across the OK/KS border this afternoon and push east of the area
tonight. Light rain showers and/or drizzle remain possible near
the center of the wave and on its backside this afternoon and into
tonight, but QPF amounts will stay light.

Lingering light rain and drizzle are expected to persist across
far northeast OK and far northwest AR late tonight and into the
overnight hours as the upper-level trough begins to exit the area.
Surface low pressure will slide east of the area late tonight and
drags a weak cold front through the morning Tuesday. Skies will
remain mostly cloudy to overcast through the night. Despite the
weak frontal boundary moving through overnight, temperatures will
stay mild and bottom out in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

A potent shortwave trough will dive south over the Northern
Plains and towards the Great Lakes region during the daytime
Tuesday, helping force a strong and dry cold front through the
area Tuesday afternoon/evening. Winds will become gusty behind the
front Tuesday afternoon and evening, with frequent northwest
gusts 20 to 30 mph through Tuesday night. Temperatures drop below
average by Tuesday night, with a light freeze possible along the
OK/KS and MO/AR borders. After an unseasonably dry and cool day
Wednesday, a more widespread light freeze will occur Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. Otherwise, dry and benign weather
will persist, with slightly below average temperatures, through
the remainder of the week.

By late in the week and into next weekend, surface high pressure
moves off to the east and southerly winds return. Simultaneously,
the next trough will move onshore the West Coast and rapidly
intensify over the West CONUS. Consensus in models show widespread
rain and perhaps thunderstorms developing ahead of the
approaching system Friday night into Saturday. However, beyond
Saturday, forecast confidence remains highly uncertain with
several discrepancies in model solutions. But it is worth noting
that recent trends continue to show an unsettled, wet and chilly,
weather pattern persisting into early next week.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Poor flight conditions are likely to persist through much of the
forecast period for all sites with widespread low clouds and
reduced vsbys. MVFR to IFR conditions are common across E OK and
NW AR early this afternoon, with a trend towards IFR to LIFR cigs
expected this evening and overnight. Showers and/ or drizzle will
also be common through the overnight period, especially in NE OK
and NW AR. By 12-18z, cigs are expected to begin improving from
west to east. However, VFR conditions may not arrive until after
18z Tuesday. Winds generally remain out of the south through this
evening, occasionally gusting to near 20 kts this afternoon.
Overnight, winds shift to northwesterly ahead of an approaching
cold front, which will impact the region just after the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  64  34  50 /  30   0   0   0
FSM   52  65  39  52 /  40   0   0   0
MLC   49  66  37  52 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   46  63  30  49 /  40   0   0   0
FYV   50  62  32  47 /  40   0   0   0
BYV   52  62  33  46 /  50   0   0   0
MKO   52  64  35  50 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   51  62  32  47 /  50   0   0   0
F10   49  65  34  51 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   48  65  39  54 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...43