Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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424 FXUS64 KTSA 140538 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1238 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 933 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Slow moving mid/upper level low continues to maintain its influence over the region this evening. Widely scattered showers with some embedded thunder are beginning to wane across the area as the trough axis slowly pushes into western Arkansas and the boundary layer stabilizes as the sun has set. Showers should continue to shift east this evening with the trof axis and weak to negligible surface boundary that is draped from southeast Oklahoma through northwest Arkansas. As skies clear later tonight, some potential for patchy fog seems likely before more cloud cover spills in from the north behind the exiting upper wave. Going forecast in is good shape with just some minor updates based on the current trends. Bowlan && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Tuesday morning the mid/upper low is forecast to be positioned over Western/Central Missouri with the trof axis having exited the CWA. This wave will continue to move off to the east with the backside of the departing low exiting by Tuesday evening. Low end chances for additional showers/storms remain forecast over mainly far Northeast Oklahoma and also Northwest Arkansas during the day. Severe potentials remain quite low on the backside of the low. Once the precip exits and the low moves farther away...rising heights are expected Tuesday night with clearing conditions and light winds become more east/southeast. These conditions could potentially allow for areas of fog development once again over parts of Northwest Arkansas. Back over Northeast Oklahoma...additional cloud cover is forecast to move in late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning as a mid level impulse approaches from the west. There is a slight chance of showers/storms moving into Northeast Oklahoma as this impulse pushes through. Underneath this cloud cover...temps look to warm into the 70s/low 80s while mid 80s are forecast along/south of Interstate 40. Storm chances increase Wednesday night into Thursday for the CWA in response to a lead wave ejecting out of the Desert Southwest ahead of the parent upper low. The greater storm chances are currently forecast over Northeast Oklahoma underneath the lead wave. Storm chances continue Thursday into Friday with the parent upper low progged to move out and across the Southern/Central Plains. There still remains some uncertainty among the extended model solutions with the timing/progression of this wave. However...there is slightly more agreement than 24-hrs ago. For this forecast...the upper low is forecast to exit Friday night with the backside of the wave departing Saturday morning. Thus...will hold onto PoPs into Saturday morning before tapering them off from west to east. Temperatures in the 70s/low 80s are forecast late week and then look to warm into the mid 80s over the weekend behind the exiting precip chances. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 In general, VFR should prevail through the next 24 hours. However, will need to monitor for periods of fog and low-level ceilings, particularly at the Arkansas terminals, overnight tonight and through the morning hours. Brief/occasional periods of LIFR and VLIFR vsbys/cigs may occur through at least 12z, perhaps a few hours after as low-level moisture continues to wrap around a departing mid-level low. VFR should prevail at all sites by mid-afternoon. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 79 57 82 64 / 0 0 10 60 FSM 77 57 85 65 / 10 0 10 20 MLC 80 56 86 66 / 0 0 10 20 BVO 78 54 81 61 / 0 0 20 70 FYV 71 53 82 63 / 30 0 10 30 BYV 71 54 80 63 / 40 0 10 30 MKO 78 56 84 65 / 0 0 10 40 MIO 74 54 79 62 / 30 0 20 60 F10 79 56 84 66 / 0 0 10 50 HHW 81 57 86 67 / 0 0 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...67