276
FXUS64 KTSA 060455
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1055 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1043 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

 - Low clouds and fog will reform across much of the area tonight
   and Saturday morning.

 - A cold front Sunday morning will result in continued below
   average cool weather and mostly cloudy skies. The warming trend
   starts Monday with clearing skies.

 - Mild weather returns Tuesday and lasts through Thursday before
   another cold front brings temps crashing down by the end of the
   week.

 - Precipitation chances are very low over the next 7 days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1042 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

A band of mid cloud sweeping across the region in advance of an
upper wave should clear the region by daybreak Saturday. Clearing
skies will allow the cool and relatively moist airmass in place to
radiate out and fog up. The HREF/HRRR have shown consistent
signals for dense fog over a good portion of E OK and far NW AR.
An advisory will be issued from midnight to 11 AM Saturday. With
temps near freezing in some spots, will need to watch for the
potential for freezing fog, though this potential appears to be
low with dewpoints over much of the region near or above freezing.

The fog and low cloud will probably be slow to erode like it was
today. Followed the lead of the previous shift and kept high temp
forecast several degrees below the model blend (NBM).

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1042 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

A cold front will sweep southeast across the region Saturday night
into Sunday, bringing gusty NW winds and continued below average
cool conditions. Precip chances with this system should stay to
the north and east of the forecast area closer to the surface low
pressure and shortwave trough aloft. A bank of low cloud is
likely to surge into the area from the north behind the front and
may be tough to get rid of. Like Saturday, went a few degrees
below NBM for forecast highs Sunday, but a warming trend will get
going Monday.

The broad upper trough over the eastern 2/3rds of the country this
week will shift east next week. Downslope flow will bring a sharp
warmup starting Tuesday, with above average warmth expected to
persist through Thursday. Most of the ensemble forecast scenarios
as well as the latest deterministic data suggest that the next
front will arrive by Thursday night, with much cooler temps on the
way for Friday.

The lack of upper troughing to our west in this upper pattern
precludes much in the way of precipitation chances for our area
over the next 7 days.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

High level clouds will give way to MVFR ceilings becoming LIFR/IFR
conditions late tonight through much of Saturday morning across
the CWA. Will continue with Tempo groups for timing of the greater
LIFR potential at each TAF site. Late morning through the
afternoon hours conditions look to slowly improve with
scattered/broken MVFR ceilings mid afternoon into Saturday
evening. There is also potential of broken MVFR ceilings returning
to northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas toward the end of
the TAF period as a dry cold front nears the region. Southerly
winds are forecast through the period with the exception of
variable/easterly winds anticipated for KFSM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   44  32  50  35 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   49  33  53  39 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   45  32  53  38 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   45  28  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   47  32  51  36 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   48  33  53  37 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   45  33  53  36 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   44  31  50  33 /   0   0   0   0
F10   48  32  53  35 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   43  33  53  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST Saturday for OKZ049-053>071-
     073-075.

AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST Saturday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...20