715
FXUS64 KTSA 051745
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1145 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1140 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

 - Low clouds and fog will diminish this afternoon before
   reforming across much of the area Saturday morning

 - A cold front Sunday morning will result in continued cool
   weather through Monday but with clearing skies

 - Mild weather returns Tuesday onwards, with little to no chance
   of rain

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Areas of low clouds and fog have enveloped much of the area
today. Model guidance has been nearly useless, but short term
observational trends suggest these clouds will mostly diminish by
mid afternoon. However, confidence is low. With this in mind,
temperatures should still make it into the mid to upper 40s for
most locations.

Overnight tonight, lows will drop into the low to mid 30s with
widespread low clouds and fog returning. A Dense Fog Advisory will
most likely be needed at some point for at least portions of the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Widespread low clouds and fog will be present Saturday morning over
most of if not the entire forecast area. A few areas could see
brief freezing fog. In spite of a warming airmass aloft, the
surface will remain chilly and inverted during the day Saturday.
With continued warm and moist advection above the surface, it will
be difficult to break out of the clouds once again. Lowered NBM
forecast temperatures substantially from the mid to upper 50s to
upper 40s to low 50s. If clouds end up being more stubborn, highs
may end up only reaching the mid 40s.

A cold front Sunday morning will clear out the clouds, with high
temperatures in the 40s and lows Monday morning in the low to mid
20s. Breezy northerly winds behind the cold front will create a
bit of a wind chill factor, with a few areas seeing "feels like"
temperatures as low as 20 F on Monday morning. Temperatures rise
slightly Monday afternoon, and more substantially Tuesday onwards
as a warming downslope (westerly) flow sets up. During that
period, well above normal readings will return with some areas
approaching 60 F. No rain is expected during the next week, if not
longer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Low clouds and patchy low vsby continue across much of eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas currently, and have been slow to
erode. Cigs should gradually rise over the next couple of hours
before clouds scatter out somewhat this afternoon, improving to
mostly VFR conditions by mid afternoon for all sites. Mid level
cloud cover will stream back over the region this evening as a weak
system moves through the region. Low clouds and fog look likely to
develop over much of the area again tonight into Saturday morning,
with a medium to high probability (50-70%) of widespread dense fog.
Best chances look to be from KMLC northeast into NW AR sites through
mid morning tomorrow. NE OK sites could see dense fog as well, but
look to be on the fringes of the lower vsbys as of now. IFR to LIFR
conditions will be likely from late tonight into tomorrow morning
with both cigs and vsbys.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   31  49  35  43 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   33  53  38  51 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   32  54  37  50 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   27  48  32  41 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   31  51  35  45 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   32  52  37  44 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   31  51  36  46 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   30  48  34  40 /   0   0   0   0
F10   31  51  35  47 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   33  54  39  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...04