830
FXUS64 KTSA 091712
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1112 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1108 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

 - Patchy fog is possible through this morning mainly near and
   south of the Ouachitas, especially in the valleys.

 - Warm and breezy conditions likely today, with gusts up to 30
   mph promoting limited fire weather potential this afternoon.

 - Near to above average temperatures persist through late week
   before additional cold fronts bring below average temps this
   weekend and early next week.

 - Precipitation chances remain very low over the next 7 days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1107 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Patchy fog remains possible this morning in Pushmataha and Choctaw
counties with visibilities locally falling below a mile or less.
Isolated instances of freezing fog could develop as temperatures
fall to near freezing, but coverage and any impacts are currently
expected to remain limited and no advisory is planned with this
forecast package. Will let the midnight shift reevaluate and issue
an advisory if needed. Downsloping SW flow strengthens today as lee
troughing tightens pressure gradients this afternoon. This will
result in breezy conditions and temperatures climbing into the upper
50s and lower 60s, which is several degrees above average for this
time of year. Southwest winds intensify by late morning and
afternoon, with gusts between 20 and 30 mph. As a result, limited
fire weather conditions develop this afternoon as min RHs fall
into the 35-45% range and it has been one to two weeks since the
last wetting rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 1107 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Winds decrease after sunset but remain elevated through the
overnight hours ahead of an approaching cold front. This will help
hold low temperatures tonight mostly in the 40s in the pre-frontal
environment. By late Tuesday night/ Wednesday morning, the front
advances through the FA, bringing a slightly cooler airmass to the
area. High pressure fills into the region during the day Wednesday
with highs in the 50s and dry conditions persisting. Southwest flow
then returns on Thursday as high pressure moves east and lee
troughing redevelops over the high plains. High temperatures again
climb into the upper 50s or lower 60s with breezy conditions.

Another cold front arrives Thursday night into Friday, cooling
temperatures for Friday, especially across NE OK and NW AR, where
highs may struggle to exceed 50 degrees. Yet another cold front is
projected to move through the FA over the weekend, pulling high
temperatures back into the 30s or 40s for much of the area to start
next week. Overall, dry conditions are expected through the forecast
period under dry northwest flow aloft. However, there is some
indication that low level moisture may creep into SE OK and W AR
ahead of the front this weekend, with some showers possible. Will
hold PoPs just below mentionable at this time, but an increase may
be required if it appears moisture will expand this far west prior
to FROPA. Apart from the series of dry cold fronts to end the week,
generally quiet weather is forecast through the long term, with no
hazardous weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1108 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with aviation
impacts over the next 24 hours focused on winds and low level wind
shear potential. Gusty southwesterly winds will continue to
develop early this afternoon across all the terminals, with gusts
in the 20 to 25 kt range common. These gusts will continue into
the evening at the far NW AR terminals, as well as MLC, with low
level wind shear concerns also developing during the evening hours
at these same sites and FSM. A cold front will move through the
TAF sites late in the period, with gusty northerly winds beginning
before dawn at BVO and closer to mid to late morning in W AR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  43  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   59  40  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   61  41  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   62  39  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   57  40  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   58  43  51  32 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   60  41  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   58  40  51  32 /   0   0   0   0
F10   63  42  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   59  39  59  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...22