224
FXUS64 KTSA 190530
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1230 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

 - Hot and dry conditions are likely to persist over the next
   several days across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
   Heat indices likely rise to near or above 105 degrees this
   afternoon and Heat Advisories are in effect for much of the
   area.

 - Additional heat headlines are likely into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Today marks the beginning of a much quieter period of weather,
albeit very hot. Broad upper level ridging continues to intensify
over the region leading to very low precipitation chances and hot
conditions. High temps today will be similar or slightly warmer than
yesterday... generally in the mid to upper 90s. While breezy SW
winds may tend to temper dewpoints and heat indices some, believe
the NBM is still under-doing dewpoints in spots and have increased
accordingly. This results in heat index values climbing to or
exceeding 105 degrees for a good chunk of the area again, and have
opted to expand the Heat Advisory to much of eastern Oklahoma and
west-central Arkansas from noon to 8 PM today. Please make sure to
take breaks and stay hydrated if spending extended periods of time
outdoors today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Ridging will continue to dominate the extended forecast with a
prolonged period of dry conditions and very hot temperatures/ heat
indices. As the ridge becomes increasingly centered over the region
into next week, temperatures are gradually forecast to warm into the
upper 90s, perhaps exceeding 100 degrees in spots. This is likely to
result in heat indices between 105 to 109 degrees for much of the
area and daily heat headlines are likely. Otherwise, mostly clear
skies are forecast through the extended period with occasionally
breezy afternoon S-SW winds. Please remember to follow heat safety
guidelines to reduce risk of heat illness over the coming days,
especially given this is the first potent heat wave of the summer.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Mostly clear to scattered high clouds are forecast through the
TAF period across the CWA. Also, a few mid clouds may develop
during the afternoon hours across southeast Oklahoma and west
central Arkansas. VFR conditions are forecast through the majority
of the period, with the potential for a brief period of MVFR
conditions in far northwest Arkansas around sunrise Saturday
morning. Will continue Tempo groups for timing of greater
potential. Winds through the period stat out light, become breezy
late morning/afternoon Saturday, and then weaken again after
sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  78  98  78 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   97  77  97  77 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   96  77  95  77 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   96  75  98  75 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   94  74  94  75 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   95  75  95  75 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   95  75  95  76 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   94  75  95  75 /   0   0   0   0
F10   95  75  95  76 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   94  75  95  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053>062-064>067-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...20