568
FXUS64 KTSA 150521
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1221 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

 - 10 to 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
   and evening, with the highest potential across northwest
   Arkansas and far eastern Oklahoma.

 - Any storms this afternoon may produce strong wind gusts and
   locally heavy rainfall.

 - Higher, more widespread rain and thunder chances arrive mid
   week with temperatures falling back to near or below average.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Sunday`s upper low has navigated into the northern Plains, with
broad troughing extending west into the Pacific Northwest.
Meanwhile, another upper low pressure system is noted across the
southeastern states today. This provides a weak, elongated ridge
between these features, extending from the southern plains toward
the Great Lakes. A weak upper level wave associated with Sunday`s
system will impinge on the ridge axis today and, combined with
subtle low level convergence, will allow for another round of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Coverage appears
to be slighter higher than previous days, primarily across NW AR
and far E OK, where PoPs have been increased to 20-40%. Severe
weather is not expected, but any storms this afternoon may produce
strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall. Further west, most
locations across E OK are still likely to remain dry with showers/
storms remaining more isolated. Precip likely diminishes with
loss of daytime heating and quiet conditions are forecast
overnight tonight. Temperatures today will be similar to Sunday
given little change in the airmass... generally in the lower to
mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Little change in the synoptic pattern will favor another day of
diurnal showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, particularly across
far E OK and NW AR. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will
again be the main concerns with any thunderstorms. Temperatures also
remain nearly steady in the lower to mid 90s. By late Tuesday into
Wednesday, another upper level low will be pushing into the plains.
This feature is projected to linger in the CONUS, providing
widespread rain chances through late week as smaller disturbances
rotate around the parent low. In general, PoPs have trended
upwards Wednesday through Friday, in addition to potential for
more rainfall overall. Severe weather and flooding potential still
appear unlikely during this period, but trends will be watched
closely as rainfall totals have been increasing as of the last
several model runs. Guidance suggests weak troughing could remain
in the area this weekend and potentially into early next week,
with continued low rain chances (10-20%).

Temperatures will fall back to near or below average by mid to late
week, with most locations topping out in the lower 80s by Thursday
or Friday. Currently held temps near the NBM over the weekend into
next week (lower 80s), reflecting a wetter pattern. If troughing
exits quicker than currently forecast, forecast temperatures may
need to be adjusted upward. Low temperatures generally remain in the
60s/ lower 70s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

While VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period, there remains a small chance of early morning fog
development in a few locations. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon with higher chances
confined to northwest AR. Any direct thunderstorm impact could
result in brief MVFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   94  69  92  69 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   95  70  94  69 /  30  20  20  10
MLC   93  67  93  67 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   93  65  91  65 /  20  10  10  10
FYV   92  65  91  65 /  30  20  30  10
BYV   91  65  89  65 /  40  20  40  10
MKO   93  68  92  67 /  20  10  10  10
MIO   92  67  91  65 /  20  10  20  10
F10   92  67  92  66 /  20  10  10   0
HHW   92  68  91  67 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...14