737
FXUS64 KTSA 112322
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
622 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Cloudiness will be on the increase overnight in advance of the
next storm system that will affect the area Sunday and Monday. A
few showers and possibly a thunderstorm will be possible overnight
in far southeast Oklahoma, but most rain will hold off until
Sunday. Overnight low temperatures will range from the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Showers and a few thunderstorms will be on the increase Sunday and
Sunday night as the upper system to the west begins to move out
into the plains. Instability will remain modest by typical May
standards so severe weather chances will remain low. Shower and
storm chances will continue Monday as a surface low and weak cold
front move across the area, but severe chances will remain limited
at best. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible Sunday into
Monday.

Another upper level storm system will affect the area Wednesday
night and Thursday bringing an additional round of showers and a
few thunderstorms. Again, severe weather potential will remain
rather limited, but locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

Temperatures will generally remain near the seasonal averages
through much of the upcoming week, but a notable trend towards
warmer weather will be seen by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR will prevail thru the period, with one possible exception to
be discussed below. Gradually increasing mid and high cloud will
be the rule thru the TAFs, with some chance for a few showers
Sunday afternoon at the E OK TAF sites. Activity will be fighting
drier air in the low levels so elected to use VCSH mention for NE
OK. Chances higher at KMLC so a SHRA prevailing mention was used.
There`s a low chance at the tail end of the forecast Sunday
afternoon for some MVFR cigs to move into KMLC. Kept W AR sites
dry with VFR cigs.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  60  77  61 /   0  10  60  90
FSM   84  61  80  61 /   0  10  40  80
MLC   83  61  76  61 /  10  10  70  80
BVO   82  56  77  59 /   0  10  60 100
FYV   81  54  78  58 /  10  10  20  90
BYV   78  56  79  58 /  10  10  20  80
MKO   83  60  77  60 /   0  10  60  90
MIO   80  56  78  59 /   0  10  40  90
F10   81  60  75  60 /   0  10  70  90
HHW   80  61  74  61 /  10  20  80  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30