Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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533 FXUS64 KTSA 051935 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 235 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Areas of light to moderate rain will begin to shift northeast this evening with upper wave. Still a few areas that could see localized flooding given current rainfall rates. All rivers have also now fallen below flood stage. As mid/high clouds shift northeast this evening, patchy dense fog will be possible after midnight across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas and a dense fog advisory may be needed in a few areas. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Attention quickly turns to Monday with the likelihood of a significant severe weather event late afternoon/evening in association with strong upper storm system. Steep mid level lapse rates overspread warm sector Monday afternoon in advance of system with modest cap limiting convective initiation until late afternoon/early evening. Ample low level moisture will allow MLCAPE values to climb into the 3000-3500 J/kg range by late afternoon across northeast Oklahoma. As mid level vort max lifts into the northern Plains, upper trough axis becomes negatively tilted, swinging into the central Plains by 00Z. In conjunction, 300 mb upper jet streak knifes into Oklahoma with extreme upper divergence / diffluence developing over far NE OK/SE KS in association with upper jet couplet. Given the very strong forcing, there is a slight chance (20%) for an isolated supercell or two to develop by late afternoon/early evening in areas northwest of Tulsa with all hazards possible. More widespread storms/higher end severe threat is expected to move in from the west by early to mid evening. Still some question on storm mode evolution, but regardless damaging winds expected with a few QLCS tornadoes possible given the strong kinematics expected. Any storms that do remain discrete would have the potential to produce a strong tornado. Severe threat continues as storms moves into northwest Arkansas Monday night. In addition, with the already saturated soil conditions, could see a limited flash flood threat across NE OK/NW AR. Behind departing system on Tuesday, a drier air-mass will be in place as Pacific front moves through far southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTx region. A few isolated showers/thunderstorms could be possible over aforementioned area, but overall coverage will be limited. Severe weather chances ramp back up on Wednesday as another upper low shifts east out of the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains. Overall upper level dynamics will not be a strong as Monday`s system, however a very unstable air-mass will develop ahead of strong cold front, which is progged to move through the area during the day. Stronger deep layer shear (50-55 kts) will support a very large hail / damaging wind threat as broken line of storms move through southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Wednesday afternoon. More tranquil / dry conditions are expected for the latter half of the work week into the weekend. Secondary surge of colder air filters into the region as surface high builds into the southern Plains Friday into Saturday. This will provide mild days and cool nights. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 A bit of a messy aviation forecast through the next 18 to 24 hours. Currently, latest obs around the region show a mixture of MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys, mostly due to light to moderate (and occasionally heavy) rainfall occurring across the region. Thunderstorm activity should wind down by mid-late afternoon, west-to-east, but low cigs will likely hold strong thereafter. Forecast guidance suggests light fog and periodic LIFR ceilings developing by or just after midnight tonight. Brief, patchy dense fog may develop at a couple of sites, but confidence wasn`t high enough to include in the TAFs at this time. Both cigs and vsbys should improve after sunrise and into midday Monday, with south/south-southeast winds prevailing. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 59 81 59 82 / 10 20 80 0 FSM 63 83 69 86 / 20 20 70 20 MLC 60 83 66 84 / 0 20 60 0 BVO 56 80 54 81 / 10 20 80 0 FYV 58 81 62 83 / 30 20 80 20 BYV 60 80 64 83 / 40 20 80 20 MKO 60 80 65 82 / 10 20 80 0 MIO 58 80 61 80 / 20 10 90 10 F10 59 80 62 83 / 10 20 80 0 HHW 63 80 68 84 / 10 20 50 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...67