474
FXUS64 KTSA 262322
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
522 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 515 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

 - Slightly below average temperatures and mostly dry through the
   rest of the week.

 - Next storm system arrives Friday night and Saturday bringing
   strong winds, rain, and low thunderstorm chances. Strong cold
   front then brings much colder temperatures for early next week.

 - At least low potential for impactful winter weather early next
   week. Please monitor for forecast updates as more details
   become available over the next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1205 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Dry conditions are likely through the day with high pressure
centered over the region. With a colder airmass now in place, high
temperatures will probably max out in the upper 40s to mid 50s
this afternoon, which is slightly below average. A subtle wave
embedded within NW flow aloft will move towards the region today
and tonight, promoting increasing cloud cover with time. There is
still low potential for some light drizzle or flurries as this
wave passes just to our north tonight, but dry low-level air will
probably prevent much precipitation from reaching the ground. Will
continue the trend of non-mentionable PoPs (5-10%) in NE OK and
NW AR to account for this potential, but any precip is likely to
remain very light and no impacts are expected regardless. Low
temps tonight bottom out near or below freezing (upper 20s near
KS/ MO borders).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 1205 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

After the previously mentioned wave departs, a seasonably
pleasant day is forecast for Thanksgiving across E OK and NW AR...
featuring partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies, light winds, and
highs in the 50s. Another chilly night is in store Thursday night,
as lows again fall into the lower 30s or mid-upper 20s. By Friday
morning, a mid-level lead wave will be moving out of the Four
Corners region and into the Southern Plains. As this occurs, high
pressure will be exiting the region as a lee low intensifies to
our west. This will bring winds out of the south again, becoming
gusty during the afternoon hours. Notable height falls arrive by
late day and overnight as an intense low level jet develops
overhead. Given the increase in moisture and lift, widespread
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday
evening and overnight as the stronger parent trough arrives.
Strong sfc winds are likely to continue through Friday night and
into Saturday, gusting 25 to 35 mph.

The trough axis moves overhead early Saturday with moderate to
heavy rainfall continuing across the area. The wave then departs
to our east Saturday afternoon and evening, dragging a potent cold
front through the forecast area. This will result in diminishing
precipitation for the FA, rapidly cooling temperatures, and strong
NW winds. Before precipitation ends, a brief switch-over to
wintry precip types is possible... but this still appears unlikely
and no impacts are expected, even if it were to occur. Given the
fairly progressive nature of this storm system and the relatively
brief window of moisture return ahead of it, rainfall totals
should remain less than an inch for most. Although, some isolated
amounts up to 2 inches are not out of question across SE OK and NW
AR. Winds behind the front may approach advisory levels, and this
will need to be monitored over the coming days. The wind will
also create very cold wind chills Saturday night/ Sunday morning,
falling into the teens for much of NE OK and NW AR. Primarily dry
conditions are then expected on Sunday before the next storm
system arrives late Sunday night/ Monday.

Guidance has generally trended toward a less aggressive solution
regarding winter weather potential Sunday night through Monday.
However, it should be stressed that plenty of ensemble members
still show potential for impactful winter precipitation, and there
is still plenty of time for trends to reverse. With that said,
the latest favored outcome suggests a quicker and less intense
open wave for the region. This implies lighter precipitation,
along with lesser duration and coverage for our area.
Additionally, the vertical temperature profile in this outcome
would favor more snow than freezing rain...especially for northern
locations. The forecast today generally reflects that message,
with a light wintry mix or rain/snow late Sunday night through
Monday night and very little or no accumulation.

So what is the message to take away from this? While odds for an
impactful winter storm early next week have trended down overall,
winter weather is still in the forecast and minor impacts are
still possible. Additionally, there remains a small but meaningful
percentage of ensemble members which paint a more robust storm,
with greater potential for snow and ice impacts. Uncertainty with
pattern evolution persists and the forecast should continue to be
monitored for changes in the coming days. In the meantime, please
consider your typical winter weather precautions as we go into
early December.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

High and some middle clouds will cross the area tonight and
decrease from northwest to southeast late tonight and tomorrow
morning. Winds are expected to be light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   33  54  33  54 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   36  56  34  56 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   33  57  34  57 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   28  53  28  53 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   30  52  29  52 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   32  50  30  51 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   33  54  33  54 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   31  51  30  53 /  10   0   0   0
F10   32  56  32  54 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   35  57  34  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...08