841
FXUS64 KTSA 240448
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1048 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1044 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

  - High rain chances with isolated-scattered thunderstorms tonight
    and continuing into Monday. Locally heavy rainfall across SE
    OK and NW AR is the primary concern.

  - After Monday, near normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail
    through the remainder of the workweek.

  - Next storm system and rain chances arrive next Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1044 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Area of light to moderate rain with a few embedded thunderstorms
continues to expand across eastern OK this evening in response to
increased forcing ahead of a compact upper low centered over
southeast CO. Fetch of anomalously high moisture continues to stream
north, with central TX RAOBS sampling precipitable water values
above 90th percentile. In addition, MUCAPE of 500-1000 analyzed
through much of SE OK, where efficient rain producing thunderstorm
potential will remain highest overnight. The initial rain shield
will continue to lift northeast over the next several hours, but
additional convection is likely to expand back into primarily
southeast OK and northwest AR later tonight into early Monday
morning. Heaviest overall rainfall will thus remain focused in that
region. For the most part the amounts should stay in the 1-2 inch
range, which remains below FFG, however high rain rates could
result in at least localized flash flooding. There is also some
hints in high-res data of a narrow axis of greater totals in the 3
inch plus range, but no strongly favored location noted at this
time.

The upper low will continue to move east into the Central Plains
through tonight and eventually become more of an open wave. Mid
level dry slot will surge across much of the area this afternoon
with the more widespread precip forced off to the east. As the wave
passes just north of the forecast area, additional more scattered
showers will persist across mainly northeast OK and northwest AR,
with at least a few thunderstorms as subtle mid level cooling takes
place.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1044 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Showers will taper off from the west this evening as the upper wave
is absorbed into stronger westerlies and quickly ,moves off to the
east. Another shortwave diving into the Great Lakes region Tuesday
will force a fairly strong cold front through the area during the
day Tuesday, resulting in a period of gusty northwest winds and an
eventual return to slightly below normal temperatures through Wed
night, with a widespread light freeze expected at that time.

By the weekend the surface high will be off to the east and south
winds will increase as a trough deepens in the west. This will bring
the next chance of rain and thunderstorms beneath strengthening
southwest flow aloft. The evolution of this pattern is quite
uncertain beyond that. For right now the forecast will maintain some
rain chances into Sunday with a downward trend in temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1044 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Ongoing widespread showers and scattered storms will continue to
spread eastward through early morning. The corridor from SE OK
through NW AR is expected to experience a longer duration of
higher precip coverage lasting well into the day Monday. Further
northwest a drying trend is likely with additional scattered
showers through the day. Ceilings will trend low VFR to MVFR with
the ongoing precip becoming IFR to periodic LIFR through the day.
A possible slow improvement in ceilings could be realized by
Monday evening as precip ends but confidence is low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  51  61  50 /   0  90  50  20
FSM   61  50  61  52 /   0  90  90  30
MLC   63  52  63  49 /   0 100  80  10
BVO   57  47  59  47 /   0  90  60  20
FYV   66  49  59  50 /   0  80  90  40
BYV   63  48  59  52 /   0  70  90  40
MKO   59  51  61  50 /   0 100  70  20
MIO   59  48  59  52 /   0  80  70  40
F10   60  51  61  48 /   0 100  60  10
HHW   64  52  61  49 /   0 100 100  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...07