497
FXUS64 KTSA 191713
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1113 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1109 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

  - Well above normal temperatures continue today, near record
    highs again south of I-40.

  - Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances this evening
    through Thursday night. A few stronger storms possible
    Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon.

  - Cold front Friday will drop temperatures closer to seasonal normal
    this weekend.

  - Increasing rain chances again late weekend into early next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1109 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Most of the day today will see pleasant conditions under increasing
high cloud cover from an approaching storm system. Temperatures will
once again push record highs generally along and south of I-40 as a
warm front lifts back northward through southeast Oklahoma and west
central Arkansas this afternoon. The warm front could also serve to
focus the development of a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms
later this afternoon and evening across SE OK extending into NW AR
this evening. Modest instability will be present south of the
frontal boundary and any storms that can sustain, could potentially
become strong to marginally severe, with large hail up to half
dollar size the primary threat through the period. The warm front is
progged to continue to lift northward through the evening and
overnight in response to a deepening surface low over the
Kansas/Colorado High Plains. An intensifying low level jet will
develop over the boundary tonight, and the result will be increasing
chances for showers and storms across NE OK into NW AR during the
overnight period tonight. A locally heavy rain threat will the
primary concern overnight, as storms could train over the same areas
near the frontal zone. The severe potential will be less, but not
zero during this time as elevated instability remains in place
posing a continued hail threat.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1109 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Widespread showers and storms will likely be ongoing Thursday
morning within the zone of isentropic ascent from Highway 412 north,
while another area of precipitation develops across SE OK with the
arrival of the synoptic system. The severe threat looks to wain into
the morning hours Thursday as instability weakens from the
widespread rain showers. A lull in precipitation appears possible
during the early afternoon hours before another round of widespread
showers and storms moves through the region from late afternoon
through the evening hours with the primary shortwave moving through.
The main threat will be for locally heavy rainfall, with storm total
precip expected to be 1 to 3 inches with locally higher totals where
more convective activity can occur. Any lingering rain showers will
exit the area Friday morning with the passage of a cold front,
giving way to a pleasant weekend across the area. Temperatures will
return back to nearer seasonal normals, though still slightly on the
warm side for this time of year.

Another system is forecast to move out of the Southwest CONUS by
late weekend into early next week. Guidance still differs on the
timing of this system, but generally increasing chances for showers
and a few thunderstorms will begin during the day Sunday into
Monday. Locally heavy rainfall will again be the primary concern
with this system before it exits the area on Tuesday. There is more
agreement that a stronger outbreak of Arctic air could be on the way
around Thanksgiving into early December, so we will be watching that
as it gets closer in the forecast range.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1109 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Ongoing VFR conditions will gradually deteriorate overnight into
the day Thursday. Isolated showers and storms may develop as early
as late afternoon,however a more likely increase in coverage will
begin late tonight with widespread rains and scattered storms
Thursday. Ceilings will gradually lower with prevailing MVFR to
periodic IFR conditions likely late tonight through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  70  59  71 /  60  80  90  20
FSM   64  73  61  76 /  60  90 100  20
MLC   64  73  60  75 /  60  90  90  10
BVO   54  68  55  69 /  60  90  90  30
FYV   61  70  58  72 /  60  90 100  30
BYV   59  67  60  71 /  60 100 100  50
MKO   63  70  60  73 /  60  90  90  10
MIO   58  68  59  70 /  70  90 100  40
F10   62  70  58  73 /  60  90  90  10
HHW   64  73  60  75 /  70  80  90  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07