242
FXUS64 KTSA 030216
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
816 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 811 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

 - Above normal temperatures return for the coming workweek.

 - Breezy conditions develop Tuesday and Thursday afternoons, but
   should remain below advisory criteria.

 - A weak front moves into the are late in the week with isolated
   showers possible in far northwest Arkansas and far northeast Oklahoma
   on Thursday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 551 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Surface ridge axis lies from east TX, across the Arklatex, and
into the lower Mississippi Valley. Lee side low pressure over
eastern CO has set up a decent pressure gradient across OK. The
gradient will slacken a bit overnight as a weak boundary
approaches the KS border. Nevertheless, persistent southerly flow
across OK will lead to a much milder night tonight. In the valleys
of far eastern OK into western AR closer to the surface ridge,
overnight lows are expected to dip into the 30s, but chances for
frost are lower tonight.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1206 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

High pressure at the surface is shifting east of the area and this will
result in generally light southwesterly flow tonight, except where
valley conditions force light and easterly flow. Temperatures tonight will
be tend to be 10 to 15 degrees warmer tonight as compared with last night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1206 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

South to southwesterly winds will continue through Tuesday. Winds will be
a little breezy Tuesday afternoon. A weak windshift line will come into the
area on Wednesday and fade away to southwesterly winds on Thursday. Isolated
showers are possible in far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas
Thursday night. Depending on how far south the forcing with the next system
develops, there could also be an isolated thunderstorm as air parcels near
850 mb could be forced to ascend. The overall thunder chance is below 10 percent
and only shown / mentioned in our decision support services.

Temperatures stay above normal through the work week, but could trend toward
normal next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 815 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

No changes planned from 00Z forecast. LLWS conditions develop
after midnight across NE OK into far NW AR, ending mid to late
morning on Monday. VFR conditions prevail through the period with
non-impactful sfc winds.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   44  70  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   40  71  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   43  75  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   39  69  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   39  68  46  72 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   42  67  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   43  71  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   43  68  49  73 /   0   0   0   0
F10   44  73  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   42  73  46  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...30