124
FXUS64 KTSA 031740
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1140 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1111 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

 - Another potent cold front arrives this afternoon dropping
   temperatures back well below normal for Thursday.

 - Precipitation chances increase overnight tonight into Thursday
   morning...areas of drizzle or freezing drizzle with chances for
   sleet or a wintry mix Thursday morning especially near the I-40
   corridor.

 - Warmer Friday and Saturday with another cold front Saturday
   night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday Morning)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

A cold front will move south across the area this afternoon and
tonight. Light wintry precipitation is expected to develop north
of the front overnight into Thursday morning, mostly in the form
of freezing drizzle, with mainly just drizzle across far southeast
Oklahoma and parts of west central Arkansas where temperatures
will likely remain just above freezing. A relatively narrow band
of convective precipitation may develop west of our area late
tonight and early Thursday morning and spread east into eastern
Oklahoma, with the area near the Interstate 40 corridor looking
most at risk for this occurrence. Precipitation within this zone
looks to be primarily in the form of sleet, but cannot rule out
some snow as well. There is even a low chance of a rumble of
thunder or two within this convective band Thursday morning.
Trends will need to be monitored the rest of today into tonight as
winter weather headlines may be needed in some places.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Precipitation comes to an end Thursday afternoon with at least
partial clearing Thursday night. Temperatures will warm somewhat
Friday and Saturday ahead of another cold front that will move
through Saturday night. Will need to watch for the potential of
light precipitation Saturday night into early Sunday as well, some
of which may be wintry (likely freezing drizzle again) depending
on temperatures. Confidence remains too low at this time to
include in the forecast, but it will be something to keep an eye
on over the next couple days.

After a chilly day Sunday, temperatures warm during the first part
of next week, with above normal temperatures expected by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

In the short term, areas of low clouds will continue for
northeast OK with ceilings around 1.5-2 kft. A cold front move
through KBVO near 19Z, the Tulsa area 20-21Z, and through the
remainder of the forecast area 22-00Z. Winds will become breezy out
of the north behind the front, with gusts to 15-25 kts. Ceilings
will gradually come down behind the front, falling to 1-2 kft
overnight.

Areas of drizzle may develop for all terminals after about 8Z.
Terminals north of I-40 may see periods of freezing drizzle as well.
A band of snow and or sleet may develop near or south of the Tulsa
area near daybreak, which could reduce ceilings and visibility
further wherever it occurs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   26  33  25  49 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   34  39  31  49 /  10  20  10   0
MLC   32  36  26  51 /  20  30  10   0
BVO   23  31  21  48 /  10  10   0   0
FYV   28  35  25  47 /  10  10  10   0
BYV   28  34  27  48 /  10  10  10   0
MKO   30  36  27  50 /  10  20  10   0
MIO   23  32  24  47 /  10  10   0   0
F10   29  34  24  50 /  20  30   0   0
HHW   37  41  32  50 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06