860
FXUS64 KTSA 221148
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
548 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1050 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

  - Areas of fog likely Saturday night into Sunday, some dense
    fog possible.

  - Increasing rain chances again Sunday night into Monday.
    Locally heavy rainfall across SE OK and NW AR is the primary
    concern.

  - After Monday, near normal temperatures and dry conditions
    forecast through the holiday week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1050 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Low level moisture wrapping around back side of departing low
resulting in expansion of low clouds across northeast OK into far
northwest AR presently. This will continue with clouds becoming
more prevalent in much of the area Saturday morning. Some patchy
drizzle or light rain showers have been observed across parts of
southeast KS and some very light precip will remain possible near
KS and MO borders into Saturday morning, however measurable precip
chances remain less than 20%. Overall anticipate a cooler
afternoon Saturday, especially where low clouds are most
persistent, most likely area being northwest AR and adjacent areas
of northeast OK.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1050 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Low clouds should eventually clear for all areas by Saturday
evening. Surface high will settle over the forecast area overnight
with areas of fog developing. Scenario will favor at least
limited potential for dense fog given the recent rainfall. Dry and
warmer conditions expected Sunday in advance of another upper
low, with another surge of moisture by late Sunday resulting in
widespread rainfall chances returning by Sunday evening within
warm conveyor belt ahead of the upper low. A few embedded
thunderstorms also possible Sunday night.

Widespread showers continue into Monday, with stronger deep layer
wind fields spreading over the area during that time. The higher
instability continues to be depicted over southeast OK into west
central AR, and this area should become focus for heaviest
rainfall totals of 1-2" and locally higher amounts. Flooding
potential will be slightly higher with this round being only a few
days removed from recent heavy rainfall. A few strong to severe
storms may develop where the stronger wind fields overlap somewhat
higher instability, again over southeast OK and west central AR.

After this system departs, dry weather expected to prevail
through the Thanksgiving holiday, with temperatures closer to
normal levels behind a more substantial cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

MVFR conditions with the potential for period of IFR conditions
will remain common across the CWA through much of the day while
the backside of mid/upper level shortwave moves over the region.
The greater potential for IFR conditions along with patchy areas
of drizzle are across far northwest Arkansas through late morning.
Cloud cover is forecast to begin scattering out from west to east
late afternoon/evening with northwest Arkansas trying to become
more scattered MVFR late evening. In response, the potential for
fog development increases over the CWA tonight, which could then
quickly spread LIFR/IFR conditions back over northwest Arkansas
through the end of the TAF period. Winds through the period start
out west to northwest and become variable tonight with surface
high pressure setting up over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  43  66  52 /   0   0   0  80
FSM   64  45  70  51 /   0   0   0  70
MLC   62  42  69  53 /   0   0   0  90
BVO   60  37  65  47 /   0   0   0  70
FYV   57  42  67  49 /   0   0   0  60
BYV   56  43  65  48 /  10   0   0  50
MKO   59  42  65  52 /   0   0   0  80
MIO   56  41  65  50 /  10   0   0  60
F10   61  42  65  52 /   0   0   0  90
HHW   63  45  66  52 /   0   0   0  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...20