822
FXUS64 KTSA 101113
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
513 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 504 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

 - Cold temperatures continue through Monday. Wind chill readings
   fall to 12-22 F by early Monday morning.

 - Widespread hard freeze with high potential for a killing freeze
   tonight; Freeze Warning in effect from 9 PM this evening until
   9 AM Monday.

 - Much above normal temperatures return mid through late week.
   Dry weather will persist until Saturday, with breezy conditions
   at times.

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances next weekend, with a low chance
   for strong to severe storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

After a widespread hard to killing freeze overnight, Monday will
be another chilly day, but winds will be lighter than Sunday.
Sunshine will be abundant, with afternoon high temperatures
mostly in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Gusty south winds return Tuesday, heralding a warming trend that
will continue through the rest of the week. Fire weather concerns
will increase some Tuesday, and again Thursday and Friday, with a
brief break from the gusty winds Wednesday as a weak frontal
boundary briefly dips south into the area. Afternoon high
temperatures will warm well above normal Wednesday through Friday,
with some places possibly reaching near 80 degrees by Friday.

The next storm system will affect the area next weekend. Track and
timing differences remain, but for now it appears the highest
shower and thunderstorm chances will be Saturday and Saturday
night. Instability may be sufficient for a few strong to severe
storms as well given the strength of the system, but this time of
year track and timing will be important regarding the overall
severe threat. This will be need to be monitored as the week
progresses. Temperatures will likely cool back to near the
seasonal averages following the passage of this system late next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

A band of MVFR cigs is moving south to southwest across MO/KS
early this morning, in the direction of the far NW AR TAF sites,
and possibly KBVO. This band of low cloud is not expected to
arrive until aft 15Z, at which time daytime heating may begin to
scatter out the low cloud. Given the higher uncertainty, have
inserted a scattered low cloud mention and no cig at the far NW
AR sites and no mention at KBVO for now. Elsewhere, expect VFR
conditions with N to NW winds to start the day and light to
variable winds to close out the day. Tonight, winds turn around to
the south, and a SWrly LLJ will develop, yielding LLWS conditions
aft 09Z at the NE OK sites. These conditions will spread to the
SE OK and NW AR TAF sites just beyond the scope of this forecast.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   46  35  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   47  30  65  43 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   49  34  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   45  29  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   43  24  61  38 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   41  26  60  42 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   47  31  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   42  28  62  39 /   0   0   0   0
F10   48  32  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   50  32  66  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30