006
FXUS64 KTSA 061440
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
840 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 840 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

 - Low clouds and fog continue through this morning.

 - A cold front Sunday morning will result in continued below
   average cool weather and mostly cloudy skies. The warming trend
   starts Monday with clearing skies.

 - Mild weather returns Tuesday and lasts through Thursday before
   another cold front brings temps crashing down by the end of the
   week.

 - Precipitation chances are very low over the next 7 days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Widespread dense fog has spread in over much of eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas this morning. A few isolated locations
remain below freezing leading to some localized freezing fog
across the area. These areas could see a few slick spots on
elevated roadways for the next hour or so before the temperatures
rises above freezing. The fog will be slow to burn off, sticking
around through much of the morning in most locations before
dissipating by afternoon. Recent trends show low level cloud
cover/fog hanging on across eastern Oklahoma from near Highway 75
and points west into the early to mid afternoon at least. This
will limit temperatures this afternoon and the updated forecast
accounts for this trends. The result will be highs in the low to
mid 40s for these locations, while the eastern half of the
forecast area will likely see more sunshine and highs around 50 by
this afternoon.

Bowlan

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1042 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

A band of mid cloud sweeping across the region in advance of an
upper wave should clear the region by daybreak Saturday. Clearing
skies will allow the cool and relatively moist airmass in place to
radiate out and fog up. The HREF/HRRR have shown consistent
signals for dense fog over a good portion of E OK and far NW AR.
An advisory will be issued from midnight to 11 AM Saturday. With
temps near freezing in some spots, will need to watch for the
potential for freezing fog, though this potential appears to be
low with dewpoints over much of the region near or above freezing.

The fog and low cloud will probably be slow to erode like it was
today. Followed the lead of the previous shift and kept high temp
forecast several degrees below the model blend (NBM).

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1042 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

A cold front will sweep southeast across the region Saturday night
into Sunday, bringing gusty NW winds and continued below average
cool conditions. Precip chances with this system should stay to
the north and east of the forecast area closer to the surface low
pressure and shortwave trough aloft. A bank of low cloud is
likely to surge into the area from the north behind the front and
may be tough to get rid of. Like Saturday, went a few degrees
below NBM for forecast highs Sunday, but a warming trend will get
going Monday.

The broad upper trough over the eastern 2/3rds of the country this
week will shift east next week. Downslope flow will bring a sharp
warmup starting Tuesday, with above average warmth expected to
persist through Thursday. Most of the ensemble forecast scenarios
as well as the latest deterministic data suggest that the next
front will arrive by Thursday night, with much cooler temps on the
way for Friday.

The lack of upper troughing to our west in this upper pattern
precludes much in the way of precipitation chances for our area
over the next 7 days.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Most sites will see IFR/LIFR conditions early this morning in fog
and low clouds. Conditions will begin to improve by late morning,
with VFR conditions returning this afternoon. MVFR ceilings are
likely to redevelop this evening and overnight at least at the
Oklahoma sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   46  35  41  24 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  39  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   51  38  47  26 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   48  30  40  20 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   52  36  44  24 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   53  37  44  24 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   52  36  44  24 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   49  33  40  21 /   0   0   0   0
F10   49  35  45  23 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   51  39  52  28 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for OKZ049-
     053>071-073-075.

AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for ARZ001-002-
     010-011.

&&

$$

UPDATE...4
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...05