Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
388 FXUS64 KTSA 131726 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1126 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1124 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 - Well above normal temperatures through early next week. - Dry weather will persist through weekend with periodic breezy days which could locally raise grassland fire concerns. - Shower and thunderstorm chances return early next week with locally heavy rain possible by mid week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1124 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 South winds continue to transport moist airmass northward across the area this morning with dew points rising 10-15 degrees since early this morning. Despite winds and much above normal temperatures, grassland fire concerns will be mitigated this afternoon by the increase in low level moisture as RH values mostly bottom out in the 45-55% range. South winds continue overnight to keep lows very mild for the time of year. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Thursday) Issued at 1124 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 Breezy and very warm conditions continue Friday under shortwave ridging aloft and sfc high extending across the southeast U.S. maintaining southerly winds. Humidity level should remain at or above todays levels as moist low level flow continues. A frontal boundary will approach from the north Saturday, likely causing some veering of low level wind fields in advance. This would result in some low level drying over parts of eastern OK with 850 mb temps supporting highs at or above record levels. Wind speeds likely will weaken some in this scenario, however the drier air will make for more receptive fine fuels. The front will push through most of the area by Sunday, but will only result in a modest cool-down. Expectation remains for the boundary to lift back north quickly Monday as shortwave ejects out of the Rockies. A few showers will be possible Monday as this occurs, though the forecast track of the system remains to our north and thus, the bulk of any associated precip should remain north as well. Very warm conditions occur once again, with potential push of dry air into eastern OK again raising some concerns for fire weather. The pattern is still expected to become more active mid to late next week as the frontal boundary pushes back south in the wake of Monday`s system and the upper air pattern transitions to a stronger southwest flow. The confidence in details is not high yet, however this pattern could support a significant increase in deep layer moisture across the area after mid-week. Rainfall probabilities will eventually increase substantially by the end of the forecast period, but still a wide range of potential outcomes with the amounts and placement of the heaviest rainfall. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 VFR conditions will persist with stronger and periodic gusty winds during the day time hours today and Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 58 78 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 57 80 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 60 80 61 83 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 52 77 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 57 76 59 79 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 57 76 61 77 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 59 78 62 82 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 58 76 61 79 / 0 0 0 0 F10 59 80 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 60 79 61 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...07