Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
628 FXUS65 KTWC 290801 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 100 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Above normal high temperatures continue through Sunday, along with dry conditions. A weather system moves to near the Four Corners Sunday night and Monday, resulting in a few showers in the White Mountains and slightly below normal high temperatures on Monday. Dry weather returns next Tuesday and Wednesday, with high temperatures right around normal levels. There is the potential for another weather system late next week resulting in precipitation chances. && .DISCUSSION...Not much change in the forecast versus 24 hours ago. The large scale pattern has weak ridging to zonal flow across the desert southwest through Sunday. A fast moving storm system will dive from the Pacific northwest into south central Colorado Sunday night and Monday, before rapidly pushing east into the plain states. Weak shortwave ridging then takes place Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. Today and Sunday, high temperatures will be 2-4 degrees above normal. This translates into lower to mid 70s from Tucson westward and in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the lower elevations of eastern Santa Cruz, Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties. Dry conditions and high clouds at times will prevail across southeast Arizona over this time frame. Sunday night and Monday, the latest model runs continue to indicate the system will skirt east of the Four Corners, with only a 10-15 chance of precipitation across northern Graham/Greenlee counties. High temperatures will cool 3-6 degrees on Monday (compared to Sunday) on the back side of the system, with highs 1-3 degrees below normal Monday. Dry conditions return next Tuesday into Wednesday with shortwave ridging and high temperatures right around normal levels both Tuesday and Wednesday. Late next week the ensembles and deterministic models indicate troughing across the southwestern United States, as a highly amplified ridge develops over the eastern Pacific Ocean from west of central California northward into British Columbia. There is alot of uncertainty regarding the evolution of this pattern and resulting weather impacts across southeast Arizona. The current forecast has PoPs of 20-30 percent Wednesday night and Thursday and then 10-15 percent PoPs Friday into Saturday, which looks reasonable given the continued uncertainty. Forecasted high temperatures (at this time) are a couple of degrees below normal. && .AVIATION...Valid through 30/12Z. SKC-SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru the forecast period. SFC wind 12 kts or less thru the valid period, favoring a WLY/NWLY direction during the afternoon/early evening hours and variable in direction at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions through Sunday, with a slight chance (10-15 percent) of valley rain/mountain snow Sunday night and Monday in the White Mountains northeast of Safford. Above normal high temperatures continue through Sunday, cooling to slightly below normal levels Monday and then right around normal on Tuesday and Wednesday. Min RH values will continue to be in the 20-30 percent range through the middle of next week. 20-foot sustained winds of 15 mph or less are expected the next 7 days, along with normal diurnal wind trends. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Zell Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson