360
FXUS65 KTWC 030934
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
234 AM MST Fri Oct 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A moisture increase to areas east of Tucson today
will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon into early this evening. Dry conditions this weekend
into early next week. High temperatures up to 7 to 9 degrees
above normal today, before cooling down to near normal levels this
weekend. Breezy southwest winds are expected this weekend as a
system moves by to our north. High temperatures warm again to 3 to
5 degrees above normal next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly clear skies this morning with a few areas of
mainly mid-level clouds. These clouds are associated with a small
push of mid-level moisture from the south with current PWATs of
0.60" to 0.90" increasing up into the 0.80" to 1.20" range this
afternoon, especially east of Tucson. Most recent CAMs producing
isolated convection this afternoon into this evening across
Greenlee, Graham and Cochise counties. Not expecting much rain
from any storms that develop, but do expect gusty winds thanks to
inverted-v sounding profiles. 03/00z HREF has neighborhood probs
up to 50% for winds of 30+ knots. Otherwise the pressure gradient
does increase a bit in response to west coast upper level trof
moving inland. Highs today similar to yesterday with a few low
desert locals touching triple-digits. Latest NBM probs has a 17%
chance for 100 degrees at the Tucson airport.

This weekend: Gusty southwest winds as upper level trof passes by
to our north with Saturday likely being the gustier day. High cool
back down to near normal for early October.

Next week: Highs warm back up early next week under southwest flow
aloft between upper high centered over Texas and west coast upper
level trof. Uncertainty remains with the potential of tropical
moisture advecting into the area associated Invest 99E currently a
few hundred miles off the SWrn coast of Mexico. Latest 6-10 day
(Oct 8-12) precipitation outlooks are leaning above normal (60-
70%) across the area. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 04/12Z.
SKC to FEW clouds at 10k-12kt ft AGL thru 03/17z, then SCT clouds
10k-12k ft AGL with ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA mainly E of KTUS thru
04/03z. Clearing skies thru end of valid period. SFC winds
variable and terrain driven at less than 10 kts thru 03/17Z and
then aft 04/04Z. SWLY/WLY SFC wind at 6-12 kts and gusts up to
around 20 kts at other times. Outflow winds up to 30 kts near any
TS than develop. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A moisture increase today east of Tucson will
bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. Dry conditions will then prevail across southeast
Arizona this weekend into at least early next week. 20-foot winds
will be 15 mph or less and terrain driven today. A storm system
will then move by to our north this weekend resulting in
increasing southwesterly winds. 20-foot winds will be 12-17 mph
and gusts to around 30 mph Saturday and Sunday, with the strongest
winds southeast of Tucson across portions of Santa Cruz and
Cochise counties. Min RH values in the valleys will be in the
15-30 percent range through Friday, lowering to 12-20 percent over
the weekend. RH values in the mountains will generally be in the
25-40 percent range. High temperatures will be 7 to 9 degrees
above normal today, then cooling to around normal this weekend,
warming back up to 3-5 degrees above normal early next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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