499
FXUS65 KTWC 132043
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
143 PM MST Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm, dry and locally breezy conditions will persist
through the week. Daily high temperatures will be near to slightly
above normal, with several degrees above normal expected next
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite and looking out of the windows shows some
cloud build ups along the higher terrain. These clouds may give
hope for organization, but the are mainly stratocumulus with a few
cumulus mixed in that will mainly provide relief from the sun. A
shortwave ridge will continue to move through the region and the
week diffluence in the upper levels will provide oppurtunities for
daily cloud build-ups. This morning`s HREF run show small chances
for some showers but the moisture is lacking for any real
development. Thus, the stratocumulus clouds suggest nothing more
than a spritz on the ridge tops and more of sun shading for
everywhere else.

A closed off low will move into the area starting tomorrow to
provide southwesterly flow and keeping temperatures at bay.
Temperatures will run around normal to slightly above normal
through Friday. Wednesday and especially Thursday, better dynamics
will be in play to give more organization in cumulus build-ups and
into a short-lived storm or two, mainly along the White
Mountains. More likely to be a dry storm with several rumbles of
thunder on Thursday afternoon.

By the weekend, a ridge will build fairly quick to bring
temperatures to several degrees above normal. Tucson has 10% of
reaching the 100 degree line on Sunday. Afternoon breezes will
around due to the differential heating of the surface. Then,
ensemble models show a trough moving through the region starting
later Sunday and into the new week. There are still some
decrepancies among the ensembles on the timing and position of the
feature, but in generally, Southeast Arizona would experience another
round of breezy and dry conditions for the start of the new week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 15/00Z.
Skies SKC to FEW 8k-12k through this evening with FEW-SCT cirrus
around 20k feet after 00Z. Winds become west to northwesterly this
afternoon generally 12 kts or less, though a few gusts up to 20
kts possible. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Afternoon temperatures near to slightly above
normal will persist rest of this week. Min RH values will remain
in the single digits in the valleys and in the teens for the
mountains. 20-foot winds will follow the typical afternoon
breeziness this week. Wednesday and Thursday may be the breezier
days due to a weak passing system. Mountains may see daily
afternoon cloud build ups, especially on Thursday to give slight
chances for a dry storm in the White Mountains. By the weekend,
above normal temperatures can be expected with stronger afternoon
breezes.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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