Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 251516
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
816 AM MST SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TODAY WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR BY MONDAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT SOME CLOUD COVER TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST
AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT USHERS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO PREVENT ANOTHER NEAR RECORD HEAT
DAY. TOMORROW HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER...WITH MONDAY BEING
THE COOLEST DAY IN THE FORECAST. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ONCE THIS TROUGH SLIDES THRU HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP AS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE IN BY
LATE WEEK.

AT THIS TIME THE ONLY SHOT FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH THRU. BY SUNDAY EVENING
HOWEVER DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT. FOR THIS REASON WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS LOW END SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/18Z. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH
DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH.
BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD...A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS
NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...WITH SEVEN DAYS LEFT IN OCTOBER...TUCSON CURRENTLY RANKS
AS THE 11TH WARMEST OCTOBER ON RECORD...HEADED FOR ANOTHER TOP 10
WARMEST MONTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 AM MST SAT OCT 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY ACROSS SE AZ WITH A FEW
LOCAL AT OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR OCT 25. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT WAS OFF NRN BAJA COAST THIS MORNING. ALREADY
STARTING TO SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVE INTO SW AZ FROM THE GLFCA THIS
MORNING. MODELS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST THIS MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE
800-650 MB LAYER WITH DRY CONDITIONS BELOW. SO A SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
START TO THE MORNING GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
AFTERNOON.

WEST COAST TROF TODAY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING RELIEF TO THE CURRENT LATE OCTOBER
HOT SPELL. HIGHS BY MONDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. DRY NW FLOW ON
TUESDAY AS A DRY UPPER LEVEL TROF PUSHES THROUGH.

TURNING WARMER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. ECMWF AGAIN WARMER THAN THE GFS. CURRENT FORECAST MAY NOT
BE WARM ENOUGH. SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MEADOWS

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