Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 281012
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
310 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA MAY THEN BRING A FEW VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...WHICH PRODUCED A VERY WARM
THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE AREA...WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY WITH
HIGHS SIMILAR WHAT OCCURRED ON TURKEY DAY. A FEW SPOTS WILL ALSO BE
NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR NOV 28TH. GRADUAL COOLING TREND THIS WEEKEND
WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SWLY, THIS WILL ALLOW SOME HIGH
CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

LARGE EASTERN PACIFIC LOW WILL PUSH TOWARD THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. INCREASING CLOUDS FOR THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM TAPS INTO SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE. LOW ENDS POPS LATE TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GRADUALLY COOLER NEXT WEEK BUT STILL REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/12Z.
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW CIRRUS ABOVE
20 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN ELY/SELY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 20 KTS...GENERALLY IN THE VICINITY OF KTUS...THRU 28/17Z.
WIND SPEEDS DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 TO 10 KTS WITH NORMAL
DIURNAL TRENDS THRU 29/12Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND
20S WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS 10
TO 20 MPH THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE TO GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS
WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM...PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH
INCREASING RH VALUES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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