Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 230339
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
839 PM MST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES AND QUIET WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN US TONIGHT. INHERITED GRID ELEMENTS ALL LOOKED ON
TRACK BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS SO NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/06Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT A FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SKC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME COOLING WILL
OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY/TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH
THROUGH SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
GUSTY WEST WINDS SUNDAY...AND ENHANCED NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE UPPER
GILA VALLEY ON MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN
CONUS INTO FRI. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES... AND RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR SOME
LOCALES THUR-FRI. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR TUCSON INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT CONTINUES WITH 94 DEGS F FRI/SAT. THE LATEST DATE FOR 95
DEGS F RECORDED AT TIA IS OCTOBER 26, 1934 AND 2001.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS SAT AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH ENTERS THE WEST COAST. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE NEARLY
IDENTICAL TO FRI EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. 22/12Z GFS DEPICTED AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE TO OCCUR SAT. THE GFS EVEN PRODUCED A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF QPF/S JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THIS FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...THE 22/12Z ECMWF WAS NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST WITH THIS
DEPICTION OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS SE AZ. THE ECMWF ALSO
DID NOT PRODUCE ANY QPF/S. AT ANY RATE...HAVE MAINTAINED DRY
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE SAT.

22/12Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING THE WEST COAST TROUGH
TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUN. THESE SOLUTIONS
DEPICTED LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGHS VERSUS PREVIOUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS TROUGH SUN WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN WLY/
SWLY WINDS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THEREAFTER...THE ECMWF DEPICTING
A MORE-AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH TO BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA MON VERSUS
THE FLATTER GFS UPPER PATTERN. A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD
YIELD DRY CONDITIONS MON WITH PERHAPS SOME BREEZINESS IN THE UPPER
GILA VALLEY. WLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PROVIDE CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS TUE-WED WITH NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PREV DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL











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