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000
FXUS65 KTWC 190415
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY MOST OF THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE WILL SEEP
BACK INTO EASTERN AREAS LATER THIS WEEK FOR A CHANCE OF MAINLY
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SE AZ AT THIS TIME ALONG
WITH LIGHT WLY/NWLY WINDS. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THE REST
OF TONIGHT. THERE ARE NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER
TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /250 PM MST TUE JUN 18 2013/...MODELS ADVERTISE THE
UPPER HIGH TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALSO MOVES EASTWARD. WE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST CORNER OF COCHISE COUNTY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH AROUND SUNDAY. SOME MINIMAL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND INTO NEW MEXICO. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE HIGH MAY BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION TO IMPORT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...
BUT STILL MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON TO THE
INTERNATIONAL AND NEW MEXICO BORDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...
THEN AROUND 1 TO 2 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THEREAFTER. LOW TEMPS WILL
HOVER WITHIN 2 TO 3 DEGS OF NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...SKC-FEW CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OR 20/00Z. SURFACE WIND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WLY/SWLY 12-20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS...STRONGEST WIND EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG SOLAR HEATING. STRONGER
WINDS ARE FORECASTED ON WEDNESDAY. THUS...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ALPINE DISTRICT OF ZONE 146 (FAR NORTHERN GREENLEE
COUNTY) FROM NOON THROUGH 7 PM MST ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO
     7 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF AZZ146 (SPECIFICALLY THE
     ALPINE DISTRICT OF ZONE 146).

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION/AVIATION...BF
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
FIRE WEATHER...ZELL