479
FXUS63 KUNR 172309
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
509 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- System tonight will bring low elevation rain showers and high
  elevation snow showers.

- Pleasant weekend with low end chances for precipitation.

- Windy on Monday, with low end precipitation chances.

- Dry, with warming temperatures Tuesday-Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Currently tracking a fast moving clipper system, is pushing east
across eastern Montana. This feature will bring increasing
cloudiness and a weak cold front into the region this evening.
With modest cold air advection and steepening lapse rates will be
enough to both develop some light valley rain showers and some
light, high elevation, snow showers. Little to snow accumulation
is expected with this passing system. The main hazard with this
system will be the potential for some gusty winds to develop early
Saturday morning. Confidence at this time is low for an issuance
of any wind highlights.

Subsidence and rising heights move into the region on Sunday in
the wake of the departing clipper system, so we can expect a nice
day on Sunday with plenty of sunshine and calmer winds. Heading
into Monday, ensemble and deterministic model guidances bring
another clipper type system through the region. Unlike the
previous system, this looks to be a bit stronger and could bring
some high winds to the region on Monday. Forecast trends were to
increase wind and wind gusts up toward the NBM90th and applying
some regional corrective measures to ensure our typical wind prone
areas are reflective in the forecast. This will need to be
monitored for the potential for some wind highlights.

Heading into Tuesday and the rest of the week, all indicators
point toward a long period of dry conditions with gradually
warming temperatures back into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued At 508 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

A system will quickly push through the region late tonight into
Saturday, bringing gusty NW winds behind a cold front and
scattered showers. Gusts 30 to 40 kt are possible. A brief period
of MVFR/IFR conditions may be possible after 07-09z Saturday
morning as the front moves through. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
persist through the forecast period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Woodward
AVIATION...SE