


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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479 FXUS63 KUNR 172309 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 509 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - System tonight will bring low elevation rain showers and high elevation snow showers. - Pleasant weekend with low end chances for precipitation. - Windy on Monday, with low end precipitation chances. - Dry, with warming temperatures Tuesday-Friday. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday) Issued at 1230 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Currently tracking a fast moving clipper system, is pushing east across eastern Montana. This feature will bring increasing cloudiness and a weak cold front into the region this evening. With modest cold air advection and steepening lapse rates will be enough to both develop some light valley rain showers and some light, high elevation, snow showers. Little to snow accumulation is expected with this passing system. The main hazard with this system will be the potential for some gusty winds to develop early Saturday morning. Confidence at this time is low for an issuance of any wind highlights. Subsidence and rising heights move into the region on Sunday in the wake of the departing clipper system, so we can expect a nice day on Sunday with plenty of sunshine and calmer winds. Heading into Monday, ensemble and deterministic model guidances bring another clipper type system through the region. Unlike the previous system, this looks to be a bit stronger and could bring some high winds to the region on Monday. Forecast trends were to increase wind and wind gusts up toward the NBM90th and applying some regional corrective measures to ensure our typical wind prone areas are reflective in the forecast. This will need to be monitored for the potential for some wind highlights. Heading into Tuesday and the rest of the week, all indicators point toward a long period of dry conditions with gradually warming temperatures back into the 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued At 508 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 A system will quickly push through the region late tonight into Saturday, bringing gusty NW winds behind a cold front and scattered showers. Gusts 30 to 40 kt are possible. A brief period of MVFR/IFR conditions may be possible after 07-09z Saturday morning as the front moves through. Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Woodward AVIATION...SE