009
FXUS65 KVEF 221052
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
252 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Light scattered showers will persist across the region this
  morning before shower activity becomes isolated in the afternoon
  and evening, with increased chances of occasional lightning
  strikes.

* As a ridge of high pressure builds over the southeastern Pacific,
  expect warming temperatures, dry conditions, and breezy afternoons
  through Thanksgiving Day.

&&


.DISCUSSION...Today through Friday.

Wrap-around precipitation lingers longer into the weekend with each
model run. The closed low that has brought rain to the region over
the last few days will continue to push eastward through the day
today, resulting in scattered light rain through the morning and
isolated light rain through the afternoon and evening. With cloud
cover ongoing through the afternoon, instability will be quite
limited; however, high resolution guidance indicates that the
isolated shower activity in the afternoon and evening could produce
an occasional lightning strike with moderate rain rates at times.
Best chances of thunderstorms exist across the lower Colorado River
Valley and southern Mohave County, with 10% chances or less
extending into Clark and San Bernardino counties. On Sunday, the
majority of the forecast area should experience mostly sunny skies,
though persistent isolated sprinkles cannot be ruled out in Mohave
County as the center of the low pushes through central Arizona.

Temperatures areawide moderate toward seasonal normals through the
remainder of the weekend and start of next week as a ridge of high
pressure builds over the southeastern Pacific Ocean. Temperatures
peak on Thanksgiving Day, with afternoon high temperatures
between 3 and 5 degrees above-normal. This ridging will result in
a dry northwest flow aloft that will bring shortwave disturbances
through the Mojave Desert, resulting in increased northerly
breezes Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons for the region. Coupled
with topographic enhancement, the lower Colorado River Valley will
experience northerly wind gusts between 25 and 35 mph, which will
result in wave heights between 1.5 and 3 feet on Lake Mohave,
with particular concern near Katherine Landing. Check the forecast
before heading out on area lakes. Heading into next weekend,
ensemble means show a pattern change, with the potential for
unsettled weather to return to the region.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Rain
shower activity will continue to wane through the night with VCSH
expected through the TAF period. The next best chance for light
rain showers will be mid-to-late morning tomorrow. In the
afternoon there will be another chance for rain showers, but
confidence is low in location and timing. The afternoon/evening
will also have up to a 10% chance for thunderstorms. Winds may
still be squirrely overnight, but diurnal winds are generally
expected to prevail. Winds will likely strengthen and reach/exceed
10 knots by 18Z, remaining at or near that threshold through the
remainder of the TAF period. Impactful ceilings of FL050 are
expected through 18Z with gradual improvement to FL100 expected
into tomorrow afternoon. Passing rain showers tomorrow afternoon
will likely lower ceilings.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...With the exception of
BIH, wrap around rain showers will remain possible through the TAF
period. There`s also up to a 10% chance for thunderstorms tomorrow
afternoon/evening. Low-end VFR conditions are expected to prevail
with high-end MVFR conditions possible in rain showers. Winds will
be diurnal, strengthening to become moderate by tomorrow afternoon.
Conditions improve towards the end of the TAF period.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Sarment

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