365
FXUS65 KVEF 031146
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
446 AM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A low pressure system will bring gusty southwest winds to the
  region today, with increased precipitation chances for the Great
  Basin and eastern Sierra.

* Temperatures will be slightly below normal through the weekend
  before rising back to near normal next week.

* Dry weather is expected from Saturday at least through Wednesday.
  Beginning Thursday, there is a chance for tropical moisture to be
  pulled into the Desert Southwest, but there is a lot of
  uncertainty.
&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday. Early morning satellite loop
showed two bands of clouds associated with the incoming trough - one
located in northwest Inyo and western Esmeralda counties and the
other located in Clark and Lincoln counties. Area radars showed weak
returns over the Sierra Nevada with occasional lightning strikes.
Surface obs showed warmer and drier conditions than 24 hours ago
with areas of gusty southwest winds. The winds will be the main
forecast concern today. The Wind Advisories for the Spring Mountains
and most of the San Bernardino County deserts still look good. Just
north of the northwest tip of the Spring Mountains, Desert Rock has
started to gust early this morning. There has been a history of
isolated downslope winds in this area during the early part of wind
events before the mean wind vector veers from southerly to
southwesterly. Since this will affect Highway 95 but not Pahrump
(the population center in the same forecast zone), will handle it in
conjunction with the highway patrol rather than expanding the
Advisory. Farther north, chances for showers and thunderstorms along
with high mountain snow will swing east through Inyo, Esmeralda,
Nye, and Lincoln counties today and tonight. Amounts should be light
and more beneficial than hazardous, barring any training
thunderstorms. The main low will exit to the northeast Saturday
morning, leaving behind a weak baggy trough for the first half of
next week. This will result in a slow, steady warming trend from
about five degrees below normal Saturday to near normal Wednesday.
From Thursday onward, forecast confidence is very low. By that time,
the next low in the westerlies is expected to be nearing the West
Coast, with the usual uncertainty in the exact position/track/depth.
At the same time, presumed Hurricane Priscilla is forecast to be
somewhere west of the southern tip of the Baja. Will the low in the
westerlies be far enough south and east, and will Priscilla be far
enough north, for tropical moisture to be pulled north into the
Desert Southwest? Well...maybe. We can`t be sure that it will, but
we also can`t be sure that it won`t. Timing is also a big question.
Some model solutions show chances for showers and storms southeast
of I-15 as early as Thursday, others show a stormy weekend, and
others keep the moisture away from our area altogether. Will
continue to monitor trends.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Early
this morning, winds will generally be southerly with some
variability between 160-190 true, with intermittent gusts to
around 15-18KT. By mid morning, winds shift to the southwest,
increasing to 15-20KT sustained with gusts to 25-30KT, peaking
during late afternoon and early evening. After sunset, winds
diminish somewhat, with a brief lull expected overnight ahead of a
northwesterly wind shift as a front moves into the Valley just
after daybreak. Northwesterly winds will become gusty by mid
morning, continuing beyond the end of the period. VFR conditions
prevail with FEW-SCT clouds around 25kft.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...A gusty day is ahead
for the region, with winds shifting to the southwest by mid to
late morning, becoming elevated and gusty with gusts to 25-35KT
common from late morning through early evening. The strongest
winds are expected mid to late afternoon through sunset, with
strong southwesterly to westerly winds persisting much of the
night across the western Mojave. An exception is across the Owens
Valley, where gusty northerly to northwesterly winds are expected,
peaking at 25-35KT this afternoon and evening. Additionally, a
cold front moving southward into the region will be accompanied by
a northwesterly wind shift, expected to move through southern
Nevada terminals near or just beyond the end of the period.
Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail with FEW-SCT clouds around
25kft, except in portions of the Owens Valley where showers are
expected over the Sierra and White Mountains, resulting in
ceilings around 8-12kft this morning, along with potential light
rain in the vicinity of KBIH.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Morgan
AVIATION...Phillipson

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