497
FXUS63 KGRB 111752
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1152 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Blustery this afternoon through Wednesday.

- Temperatures will gradually warm through the rest of the week.
  Highs rise above normal Thursday through Saturday.

- A chance of rain with gusty winds this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

A fairly quiet week expected across the region with only some
morning flurries/light snow today, a little breezy today and
Wednesday, then a split flow regime leads to uncertainty regarding
the next chance for precip this weekend. Temps will return to
above normal by late in the week.

Today into Wednesday: WAA and FGEN will continue to produce a
north-south orientated band of flurries and light snow early this
morning. But surface observations and model soundings continue to
show dry air under 10,000 ft making it difficult for the snow to
reach the surface. There has been enough saturation for at least
a period of light snow within this band as it continues to shift
east through the morning hours, but it will continue to fight the
dry low level air. Accumulation should be a tenth or two, with
little to no impacts expected. The activity will exit to our east
by late morning. North-central WI will see some light rain/snow
showers late this afternoon through late evening as surface-850mb
winds turn to the northwest and a weak through swings across the
region. With Lake Superior water temps still running in the 5-9C
range and 850mb temps dropping to -4C to -6C, delta Ts will climb
into the low to mid teens. Inversion heights will also climb to
~7,000ft with a period of deeper moisture pushing over the
northern Great Lakes. These will combine to produce some lake
enhancement, especially this evening. However, snowfall totals
will be limited (to under a half inch) due to the inversion
heights not reaching the DGZ, some rain mixing in, and drier air
arriving overnight.

Clouds are expected to start the day, with some partial clearing
aided by downsloping winds over eastern WI late this afternoon.
Then more clouds return for a time this evening to the entire
area, with a more pronounced clearing trend overnight into
Wednesday as flow turns westerly. Temps will slowly moderate today
and Wednesday, with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s today and in
the upper 30s to upper 40s. Southwest to west winds gusting to
around 25 mph will drop wind chills into the teens and 20s this
morning. West to northwest winds gusting to 35 mph on Wednesday
will produce wind chills in the 20s and 30s.

Late This Weekend and Weekend: GEFS/ENS/GEPS in good agreement to
bringing mid and upper level ridging over the western Great Lakes
late in the week with dry conditions expected. Temps will continue
to moderate, with above normal readings expected Thursday-Saturday.
It will be a brief return to spring-like temps for many locations,
and a few spots look to make a run at 60 degrees (10-35% of 60+
south of Hwy 29). Uncertainty remains this weekend on how split
flow and an upper low to our southwest will track/play out.
Latest guidance showing the region seeing a shot at some precip
sometime this weekend with a northern stream system and frontal
boundary, but still some question how strong it will be and how
much wind and cold air it will bring.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1144 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Mid-level clouds were exiting to the east early this afternoon,
as stratocumulus clouds (bases 2500-3500 ft AGL) expanded across
the northwest part of the forecast area. Expect the low clouds to
spread east as a cold front approaches, then moves through the
forecast area this evening. Ceilings are expected to either remain
at or lower to MVFR over NC/C WI, though downsloping WNW winds
should keep NE/EC WI in the VFR flight category. Scattered lake-
effect snow showers or flurries are anticipated across NC WI
tonight, though any vsby restrictions should remain close to the
Upper Michigan border. Skies are expected to clear Wednesday
morning.

Gusty southwest winds will veer W-WNW after the cold front moves
through this evening. Gusts to around 25 knots will continue
through Wednesday. Periods of LLWS will develop this evening and
continue at times into Wednesday, as NW winds aloft increase to 40
knots.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Bersch
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch