616
FXUS63 KGRB 020851
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
251 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An arctic front will bring a chance of light snow (30-70%)
  tonight into Wednesday, followed by the coldest air of the
  season so far. Snowfall accumulations up to an inch are
  expected, with an inch or two possible across Door County.

- Record or near record cold is expected on Thursday with a few
  locations possibly setting a record low or record low maximum
  for the date.

- Below normal temperatures will continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Wednesday

Other than some flurries across north-central Wisconsin, dry
weather is expected across the region today. Highs today should
generally be in the lower 20s.

An arctic front tracking through the region will bring a chance
(30-70%) of snow tonight into Wednesday. The best forcing and
moisture will be to the north; therefore, snowfall amounts are
expected to largely be an inch or less. Door County could squeeze
out an inch or two as this area will be closer to the better
moisture and dynamics from this moisture starved system. Lows
tonight are expected to range from 10 to 15 across the north, to
the upper teens across the Fox Valley. Highs on Wednesday are
expected to generally be in the 20s before the arctic air causes
temperatures to plummet behind the front throughout the day.

Long Term...Wednesday Night Through Monday

A persistent west to northwest flow will continue to bring colder
than normal conditions through next weekend. For Wednesday night,
snow showers or flurries will linger across the far north (20-50%
in most of Vilas and far northwest Florence counties) with only a
minor accumulation expected. Lows temperatures should drop into
the single digits below zero across much of the area, except
across far northeast WI near Iron Mountain and Marinette, and
across Door County. Wind chill readings will drop to zero to 10
below zero across Door County, while the remainder of the area
should see wind chill readings in the 10 below to 20 below zero
range. The NBM probabilities of experiencing subzero temperatures
were highest across central and north-central WI which were from
70-90%, 50-70% across the Interstate/Highway 41 corridor to less
than 10% across northern Door County. Very cold conditions for
early December continue on Thursday with highs 8 to 16 degrees
above zero. A few places could see a record low or record low
maximum for December 4th. See climate section for December 4th
records. Later Thursday night and Friday, increasing southwest
winds are expected ahead of the next arctic cold front approaching
from the northwest. The passage of the arctic cold front will
necessitate a chance of snow showers (30-50%) as the front passes
across the area Friday afternoon and Friday night. Arctic air remains
in place next weekend. There is one item to watch next weekend.
The GFS/ECMWF/Canadian have a system passing to the south of the
area Saturday night into Sunday. Will continue to monitor to see
if there is a northward shift in the storm track.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1056 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

The widespread area of light snow and flurries will continue to
slowly end from northwest to southeast across the region late this
evening. As the snow ends, look for low clouds (IFR/MVFR with
patchy LIFR) to remain across central and north central WI
(AUW/CWA/RHI) into Tuesday (with a brief period of just mid-clouds
late this evening). Across eastern WI (ATW/GRB/MTW), MVFR and
some IFR clouds will move in, but some breaks in the low clouds
are expected, mainly late this evening into Tuesday morning. The
breaks in the clouds could allow for very patchy fog to develop.
Some flurries can`t be ruled out in any of the low clouds
overnight into Tuesday. Any breaks in the clouds will fill back in
on Tuesday afternoon as another weak system approaches from the
west. This system will spread another round of light snow from
west to east across the area after 00-03z Wednesday. Winds will
remain on the light side overnight, mainly out of the SW/W. SW
winds will increase Tuesday morning with gusts to around 15 kts
expected by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 249 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Record or near record cold is expected on Thursday December 4th,
with a few locations possibly setting a record low or record low
maximum for the date. December 4th (record low/year(s) & record
low maximum/year(s)):

Antigo (-13/1985 & 8/1991), Appleton (-9/1940 & 14/1929,1942),
Green Bay (-8/1977 & 15/1976), Manitowoc (-2/1976 & 13/1976),
Marshfield (-16/1919 & 11/1972), Merrill (-23/1919 & 8/1976),
Oshkosh (-5/1977,1985 & 11/1991), Rhinelander (-22/1927 & 8/1972),
Stevens Point (-11/1902 & 10/1972), Sturgeon Bay (-1/1940 &
12/1976), Wausau (-7/1991 & 12/1991), Wisconsin Rapids (-18/1940 &
9/1991).

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski/Eckberg
AVIATION.......Bersch
CLIMATE........Eckberg