735
FXUS63 KGRB 051003
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
403 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 50-80% chance of light snow this afternoon and
  evening. Snowfall amounts around an inch are expected, with
  locally higher amounts of 2 inches possible. Freezing drizzle
  may mix in briefly as precipitation ends this evening.

- For late Saturday night into Sunday morning, there is a 50-70%
  chance of light snow south of a Wausau to Sturgeon Bay line,
  where accumulations around an inch or less are expected. Chances
  of light snow taper off over northern WI.

- Two clipper systems are expected to bring another round of snow
  late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning, and then
  again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Snowfall amounts are
  uncertain at this time depending on where the exact storm track
  sets up. The system on Tuesday night and Wednesday has the
  potential to bring a heavier snowfall to the area.

- Below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend with
  moderating temperatures by the middle of next week. Temperatures
  across central and east-central WI could flirt with 30 degrees
  Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Saturday

Some light snow is possible across north-central Wisconsin early this
morning as a mid level shortwave tracks through the northern
Great Lakes along with warm air advection.

A more substantial mid level shortwave and cold front will bring
widespread light snow to the region today and into this evening.
This looks to be a classic low QPF high POP scenario as QPF
amounts will generally be less than 0.10"; however, with snow
ratios of 13 to 15 snowfall amounts around an inch is expected.
Some areas could see up to 2 inches, especially across central,
north-central, and northeast Wisconsin, with slightly less than an
inch possible across the Fox Valley. Probabilistic guidance
currently pegs far northeast Wisconsin with the best chance for
exceeding an inch of snow (30-60%) with lesser chances (10-20%)
elsewhere.

As the snow tapers off later this evening, model soundings
indicate there will be a loss of mid-level moisture. This could
cause some freezing drizzle on the backside of the departing
snowfall across central and east-central Wisconsin. This freezing
drizzle would likely be low impact at that point as the snow will
have already fallen, so it would fall on top of the snowpack, and
be relatively short lived, on the order of a few hours.

Winds will turn northwesterly behind the cold front, which will
mean lake effect snow will continue across far north-central
Wisconsin through Saturday morning until winds back to a more
westerly direction ahead of the next low pressure system.

Long Term...Saturday Night Through Thursday

The west-northwest flow pattern at 500mb will continue through
the middle of the month. After a reinforcing shot of cold air this
weekend, temperatures will moderate some Tuesday and Wednesday
before another surge of arctic air flows southward later next
week. The Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day and weeks 3-4
temperature outlook is calling for greater chances of below normal
temperatures.

For Saturday night, the next clipper system approaches from
the northwest Saturday evening, with light snow breaking out
after midnight and then continues into Sunday morning. Snow
chances are currently from 50-70% south of a Wausau to Sturgeon
Bay line where the chances of 1" of snow is at 40-60%. For Sunday
night, high pressure is expected to be centered across the area
by 12z Monday. Expecting skies to become clear to partly cloudy
and diminishing winds is a recipe for temperatures to tank. Per
coordination with surrounding offices, did bump minimum
temperatures down several degrees, especially across central and
north-central WI.

The next clipper system arrives across the area later Monday
afternoon into Tuesday morning. The GFS does not have much of
a system for this period, but the Canadian/ECMWF show a decent
snow event across northern WI. When this scenario develops in the
models, usually follow the Canadian/ECMWF solution. After the
departure of this system Tuesday morning, it won`t be long before
the next system arrives Tuesday night and lingers into Wednesday
morning. This system has a potential for a heavier band of snow
based on storm track and an axis of heavier precipitation in the
same orientation the system is moving. Still pretty far out to
pinpoint the track of the storm and where the heavier band of snow
will set up. Behind this clipper system, colder air will filter
back into the area later next week after flirting with 30 degrees
on Tuesday and Wednesday over central and east-central WI.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 403 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

MVFR stratus has spread in across the area early this morning,
with some light snow and flurries across north-central Wisconsin.
Clouds will continue to lower throughout the morning (MVFR/IFR),
with more widespread light snow spreading into the region late
this morning through early this evening. IFR and a few LIFR VSBYs
are expected in the steadier/heavier snow. The snow could end as
a little freezing drizzle later this evening.

Surface winds will be southwest today and generally remain below
15 knots, a few gusts to 20 knots are possible across eastern
Wisconsin, especially this morning. Winds will then become
westerly tonight and ease below 10 knots.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski/Eckberg
AVIATION.......Kurimski