419
FXUS61 KBGM 111824
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
224 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Frontal system pushes into the region this evening kicking off
more rain showers. Showers are expected to continue through
Sunday with a brief break Sunday night, before the next frontal
system approaches Monday morning. An active pattern will
continue this week with unsettled weather through at least mid
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

220 PM Update:

Unsettled weather will continue through most of the period with
just brief high pressure Sunday night into Monday morning.

Weak surface low pressure and upper level shortwave trough will
push across the Great Lakes this afternoon and evening, kicking
off more widespread showers tonight. Out ahead of this system,
we are seeing a few diurnal rain showers popping up across
central NY. The diurnal heating, aided with the cool air aloft,
could produce an isolated rumble of thunder.

The low will fill and become vertically stacked overnight into
Sunday as it moves over Central NY. This will keep shower chance
up through the day tomorrow, especially with diurnal heating
during the afternoon hours. This low moves east of the area by
Sunday evening which will allow for showers to gradually taper
off and should see some clearing in the clouds overnight into
early Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
410 AM Update

This period starts off briefly quiet Sunday night, with dry weather
and partly cloudy skies. It will be seasonably cool, with lows in
the upper 30s to mid-40s in most locations. Outside chance for some
patchy frost in the colder valleys of the Catskills, but not enough
confidence to include in the forecast grids at this time.

It then becomes somewhat more active on Monday, as a surface front
slides into central NY from Ontario. At the same some, mid and upper
level ridging will be building over the Mid-Atlantic. This will
cause the surface front to stall, likely somewhere over Central
NY...but the exact location/position is unknown. Along this front
scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will develop. At this
time, further south toward the Wyoming Valley looks to stay dry,
under partly sunny skies. High temperatures will range from the mid-
60s to low 70s Monday afternoon. The stalled front remains along the
northern periphery of the Mid-Atlantic ridge Monday night. This will
keep showers in the showers in the forecast, especially from the
Twin Tiers north into Central NY. Milder with lows in the upper 40s
to 50s Monday night.

The weather then becomes much wetter/more active Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Moisture advection increases on a southwesterly flow
into the region. This is in response to a developing low pressure
system over the Ohio Valley that will move slowly east-northeast
Tuesday night. Exact details remain uncertain, but it could start
off somewhat dry earlier on Tuesday over NE PA and the Southern Tier
before periods of rain and possible embedded thunderstorms move in
from the west along the occluded frontal boundary. Rain overspreads
the region Tuesday afternoon and continues Tuesday night. The latest
trends are for a stronger, slower moving low pressure system with
higher rain amounts for our area...but exact totals are unclear.
Seasonable with highs 65 to 75 and lows in the 50s areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
410 AM Update

Main notable trend for this forecast update was to slow down
the upper level low, which brings higher chances for more
showers and isolated thunderstorms all day Wednesday and perhaps
even into Wednesday night now. The 00z GFS showed this trend,
along with the 00z CMC and the 00z ECMWF was now the slowest,
with the low centered over south- central PA early Wednesday
evening. The 00z ECS also showed plenty of precipitation lingering
over the forecast area all day Wednesday. With this in mind,
started to trend PoPs higher than what the 01z NBM was showing...
but in collaboration with neighboring offices decided to still
cap PoPs below likely thresholds on Wednesday. If this latest
trend continues in the guidance, PoPs would continue to rise on
Wednesday and into Wednesday night.

Most of the guidance still dries us out for Thursday, with the 00z
ECMWF being an outlier in keeping the upper level low close enough
for showers over the eastern half of the CWA. Went back to the 01z
NBM for the official forecast Thursday, which kept it dry and mostly
sunny with mild temperatures in the 70s.

There remains uncertainty and spread in the guidance for Friday;
especially in regards to how fast the next weather system will push
into the area from the Ohio Valley. For now, stayed close to the
NBM, which gives increasing shower chances in the afternoon.
Temperatures stay steady, with highs in the low to mid-70s and lows
in the upper 40s to mid-50s each night.

The next trough and weather system will be over the eastern US
heading into the start of next weekend. This kept more shower
chances in the forecast, with temperatures holding at seasonable
levels.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions are expected this afternoon, however
another frontal system moves in this evening from the west. This
will bring IFR to MVFR restrictions through the overnight hours.
There will be some improvement tomorrow morning, but MVFR
ceilings will likely continue into Sunday afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday afternoon through Thursday...Occasional rain showers may
bring intermittent restrictions as multiple disturbances pass
through the region. Some periods of mainly VFR conditions
possible in between disturbances, but timing of this is
uncertain.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...MPK