Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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655 FXUS61 KBGM 120758 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 358 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Frontal system pushes into the region overnight with more rain showers. Isolated to scattered showers are expected to continue on Sunday with a brief break Sunday night, before the next frontal system approaches Monday morning. An active pattern will continue this week with unsettled weather through at least mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 100 AM Update: Only minor adjustments to PoPs and QPF based on the latest radar trends, HRRR and 3km NAM. Overall, forecast remains on track, with no significant changes. Previous Discussion Below Continued minor adjustments with the shower coverage through the overnight based on latest radar trends. Increased QPF slightly in the Southern Tier of NY into the Finger Lakes as well with the late evening update. Sped up the timing heading into the evening hours with the arrival of the next round of more widespread showers. Previous discussion below. 220 PM Update: Unsettled weather will continue through most of the period with just brief high pressure Sunday night into Monday morning. Weak surface low pressure and upper level shortwave trough will push across the Great Lakes this afternoon and evening, kicking off more widespread showers tonight. Out ahead of this system, we are seeing a few diurnal rain showers popping up across central NY. The diurnal heating, aided with the cool air aloft, could produce an isolated rumble of thunder. The low will fill and become vertically stacked overnight into Sunday as it moves over Central NY. This will keep shower chance up through the day tomorrow, especially with diurnal heating during the afternoon hours. This low moves east of the area by Sunday evening which will allow for showers to gradually taper off and should see some clearing in the clouds overnight into early Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 355 AM Update: Weak ridging will be sliding east of the area Monday night with a warm front north of our region. Latest model guidance has trended a bit drier Monday night with most of the rain shower activity located to our north and west/closer to the warm front. Currently maintaining slight chance to low-end chance PoPs for areas west of I-81 Monday night, but if this drier trend continues, it is possible the entire area remains dry Monday night. Lows are expected to be in the upper 40s to upper 50s. A slow-moving frontal boundary will be moving eastward on Tuesday, which will re-introduce showers to the forecast. Depending on the progression of this front, it is possible that much of Tuesday morning may remain mainly dry, especially east of I-81, before coverage of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms increases during the afternoon. Otherwise it will be mainly cloudy with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. The upper level low will slowly drift eastward and the associated frontal boundary will stall over/around our area Tuesday night through Wednesday, which will keep showers and some thunderstorms around. Right now, it appears the best chance for more widespread coverage of showers on Wednesday will be across areas east of I-81/south of I-88, but this is subject to change depending on the progression of the frontal boundary. Otherwise, mainly cloudy skies are again expected, with perhaps some partial clearing late in the day Wednesday for areas west of I-81. Highs are expected to be mainly in the 60s. The upper level low drifts eastward/away from the area Wednesday night, which will allow for the coverage of showers to diminish. However, some model guidance keeps this upper low close enough to have showers linger around a bit longer. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 355 AM Update: Weak ridging builds in Thursday into Friday, which will allow for a brief drier period of weather. The one caveat is that the upper low may remain close enough to the region Thursday for a few isolated showers. That being said, chances are that Thursday will be dry with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Unfortunately, this dry period of weather looks to be rather short-lived as yet another frontal system looks to move through the region late in the period. However, as is typical this far out, significant timing differences are present, which creates uncertainty for Friday`s forecast. Should this next system approach the area a bit slower, Friday may remain dry, but a quicker approach would re-introduce a chance for showers. Confidence in seeing rain showers is higher for Saturday. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 130 AM Update Conditions will transition to MVFR after 06-08z as a frontal system moves in overnight from the west with light rain. Restrictions will generally hold steady around MVFR/Fuel Alt through the rest of the overnight and Sunday morning hours but could touch IFR at ITH and BGM at times with some low clouds and patchy fog around. There will be improvement tomorrow afternoon after 16-19Z, with MVFR ceilings going to VFR at ITH, SYR, ELM and RME by 18-20z. BGM and AVP are expected to remain MVFR through about 13/00z, but confidence is rather low. There could be enough afternoon mixing to scatter out the conditions to VFR at times late in the day. Patchy low clouds and perhaps some fog returns by late Sunday evening, but the clouds certainly look more scattered. Outlook... Sunday night through Wednesday...Occasional rain showers may bring intermittent restrictions as multiple disturbances pass through the region. Some periods of mainly VFR conditions possible in between disturbances, but timing of this is uncertain. Thursday...Becoming VFR as a ridge of high pressure moves overhead. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM/MWG SHORT TERM...BJG LONG TERM...BJG AVIATION...BJT