706
FXUS61 KBGM 090012
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
812 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop across the area tonight, marking the
beginning of a cooler pattern. A batch of rain is expected later
Thursday into Friday as an upper level disturbance pivots over
the region. Additional on-and-off chances for showers are
anticipated for this weekend right into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
810 PM Update...
Risk for gusty thunderstorms is over. A frontal band of showers
and isolated thunder reached the NY Thruway counties this
afternoon, with a few showers also popping in Otsego-Delaware-
Sullivan, but all has succumbed to the dry air with which they
were fighting. However, even in the absence of storms winds were
plenty gusty across the area simply from strong flow aloft
being able to mix well to the surface in the warm unstable air
mass. Gusts areawide frequently reached 30-40 mph; we even had
observed peak gusts of 49 mph in Penn Yan, 46 mph in Elmira, and
44 mph in Syracuse.

Cold front is dropping south from Central NY into the Twin
Tiers, and will continue across Northeast PA during the
remainder of the evening. After highs of 70s-mid 80s today, by
dawn we will have mid 40s-lower 50s, followed by highs of only
upper 50s-upper 60s Thursday under plenty of clouds. That said,
models continue to trend slower for the onset of our next rain,
to the point that many locations will get away with dry
conditions most of the day before the rain more decidedly
develops Thursday night.

Previous discussion...
Thursday is looking much cooler with northerly flow advecting
in cooler 850 mb temperatures. As the upper level trough slowly
drops south through the day, a 500 mb shortwave and associated
surface low moves through the mid Atlantic increasing chances of
rain mainly in NEPA with CNY staying dry before sunset.
Thursday night, an inverted trough sets up with light rain
overspreading the region. QPF amounts are looking light, largely
staying under half an inch and the rain rates will also be
light, likely staying below a 10th of an inch per hour.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
240 PM Update:

Friday will be the coldest day of the week as a shortwave trough
moves into the region, towing in a cold air mass with it.
General rain showers can be expected for Friday, with high
temperatures in the low-50s. Going into the weekend, the
shortwave trough continues moving east into the region, with
rain showers expected and chances of afternoon thunderstorms
possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
240 PM Update:

After the aforementioned shortwave trough pushes east and out
of the region Sunday night, we`ll see a slight warming trend
heading into the first half of the week, with temperatures
potentially in the low to mid 70s by Wednesday. Conditions will
be showery through the week, with chances for thunderstorms
during the late afternoon into evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will drop south across the terminals this evening,
with post-frontal shallow ceiling development into MVFR to fuel
alternate required levels overnight-early Thursday morning.
Ceilings will rise into VFR levels midday onward. Showers from
the next system, are likely to hold off during the day, but will
be inbound after 00Z Friday.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday...Deteriorating conditions
Thursday evening as ceilings lower and rain develops; rain and
restrictions likely overnight into Friday.

Friday Night through Monday...Periods of showers with
intermittent restrictions as multiple disturbances pass through
the region.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG/MDP
NEAR TERM...AJG/MDP
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MDP