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000
FXUS61 KBGM 271740
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
140 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front swings through the region later today through
Sunday bringing a chance of rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Temperatures trend much warmer starting Sunday,
this pattern holds into the middle of the week. Cold front will
bring more rain showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1240 PM Update...

No significant changes with this update. PoPs and QPF were
tweaked based on the latest radar and trends in the NBM/CAMs.
Light rain is moving in on schedule and temperatures are falling
back into the 40s where the steady rain has developed. The
elevated instability and slight chance for thunderstorms does
not arrive in the northern Finger Lakes to Syracuse metro area
until around or after sunset this evening.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms are still expected for most
of the forecast area on Sunday, with the 12z guidance continuing
to shower around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE over the southern half of
the CWA in the afternoon. PoPs were bumped up into the likely
range for Sunday, but it will not be an all day washout.

950 AM Update...

Only minor adjustments to temperatures, cloud cover, PoPs and
QPF based on the latest observed trends and hi-resolution CAM
guidance. Also adjusted the probabilities for a few, elevated
thunderstorms across the Syracuse metro and Mohawk Valley this
evening into the overnight. If there is enough sunshine and
surface heating tomorrow we may need to watch for a few stronger
t`storms to develop over the Twin Tiers and NE PA during the
late afternoon and evening hours. Guidance such as the 06z NAM,
GFS, and 12z HRRR are showing pockets of 400-700 J/kg of MLCAPE
and deep layer (0-6km) shear of around 40 kts. Forecast
soundings from the HRRR are showing Equilibrium Levels up to
around 35k Feet AGL. There does look to be some dry air
entrainment in the mid levels, and lapse rates are only around
6C/km in the 850-500mb layer, both of which could dampen storm
development. Something to keep and eye on, as SPC did mention
small hail and gusty winds will be possible with the strongest
storms (especially across PA).

630 AM Update...

Temperatures range in the mid 30s to mid 40s this morning with
high clouds moving into the region. Minor changes were needed to
update temperatures and dew points with current observations.
Otherwise previous forecast remains on track at this time.

400 AM Update...

Surface high pressure system slides east this morning with a
warm front approaching the region. Model guidance shows dry air
in place this morning within the low to mid levels, this should
delay precipitation until the late morning/afternoon timeframe.
Otherwise a dry start to the day is expected with high clouds
gradually lowering and thickening as the showers move in from
the west. Minor timing differences are observed in the CAMS
suggesting increased confidence of the onset time being late
morning/early afternoon. Temperatures are expected to climb into
the upper 50s to low 60s this afternoon. Scattered rain showers
will continue throughout the day and into the evening hours
with only a tenth of QPF expected at most. Rain showers linger
through the night with sufficient moisture and lift present.
There is potential for some thunder, but model soundings showed
an inversion keeping conditions stable overnight. Lows are
expected to range in the mid 40s to low 50s across the region.

Upper level heights continue to rise on Sunday with the warm front
staying to our north of our region. In this section, warm air
advects into the region allowing temperatures to soar well into
the 70s. Enough moisture and instability looks to be in place,
therefore it will be partly sunny with scattered mainly
afternoon thunderstorms around. Tough to time and place such
storms, as model soundings show some variability in terms of
timing of instability. Regardless daytime period will be favored
with the building instability.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Recent trends continue with the warm sector ahead of the next cold
front having less northward extent into our region. This keeps the
boundary nearby Sunday night through Monday night. Enough lift and
moisture look to be present for isolated to scattered showers. Some
weak instability looks to be present also adding in the potential
for a few thunderstorms as well. With the increase in moisture,
temperatures Sunday night only fall into the 50`s. With more clouds
around Monday temperatures have continued to trend slightly cooler
as most locations look to top off in the upper 70`s now.  Monday
night still looks rather muggy as most locations again struggle to
fall much below 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main low pressure system and cold front is modeled to move
through the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will serve to
bring us more widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms ahead
of the front. Instability on ensemble guidance has trended more
disorganized given the shorter window in the warm sector. Still
500- 1,000 J/KG surface CAPE with dewpoints into the low 60`s
could be realized. In terms of any thunderstorm organization
0-6KM bulk shear is modeled to be around 30-40 knots ahead of
the front which may lead to thunderstorm organization into
linear segments with a gusty wind threat. However, could see
quite a bit of cloud cover and modeled lapse rates have been
constantly modeled as poor.

Taking a look at Tuesday from a hydrological perspective. PW values
do look to rise above an inch with some favorable vector profiles as
well for training thunderstorms. This is showing up as well with
some ensemble members painting localized 1-2 inch rainfall amounts
over portions of the region which gets close to 6 hr FFG.

This frontal boundary washes out east of the region so not much of a
cooling trend for the middle of next week. We may end up getting a
drier window Wednesday and Thursday before our next frontal boundary
and chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives Friday. Lows in the
50`s and highs in the 70`s generally.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

130 PM Update

Lower end VFR conditions will continue for the next 1-2 hours
with some light rain pushing in from the west. As the rain
moistens up the lower level of the atmosphere MVFR/Fuel Alt
ceilings restrictions are to develop at all of our terminals
by late afternoon and evening . As showers settle in for the
overnight, MVFR/Fuel Alt ceiling restrictions are expected to
continue for most of the sites. IFR restrictions are possible
heading into Sunday morning along a frontal boundary. The high
probabilities for IFR should be at BGM, AVP and RME in the
09-15z Sunday morning timeframe. After 15-16z the front quickly
lifts north as a warm front, with winds turning southwesterly.
This will quickly scatter and lift CIGs back to MVFR, and VFR by
midday from ITH south to ELM, BGM and AVP. SYR and RME has CIG
restrictions linger the longest on Sunday as the front may stall
in their vicinity. Will have to watch for scattered
thunderstorms mainly after 18z Sunday afternoon as well.

Gusty southerly winds up to 25 knots accompany these
showers. LLWS is possible at ELM/ITH mainly between 05-10z early
Sunday morning. Surface winds turn southwesterly 5 to 10 kts
after the frontal passage Sunday morning or midday.

Outlook...

Sunday Afternoon and Sunday night...Sct`d thunderstorms
possible; especially ITH, ELM, BGM and AVP. CIGs drop back to
MVFR Fuel Alt and/or IFR overnight (except AVP stays VFR).

Monday...Lingering Ceiling restrictions in the morning,
gradually scattering and becoming VFR by afternoon. Low chance
for an isolated shower or t`storm.

Tuesday...Restrictions likely in rain showers and
thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR; slight chance for a shower.

Thursday...VFR Likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...ES/MJM
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...ES/MJM