Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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312 FXUS63 KBIS 080612 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 112 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low to medium chances for rain showers remain in the forecast tonight through Wednesday. - A transition to warmer and drier weather is expected for the end of the work week and into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 111 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Shower activity continues to become more widely scattered overnight, and is mostly confined to areas along and west of Highway 85. Satellite, radar, and rapid refresh model trends dictated a decrease in PoPs across central North Dakota for this update. Otherwise, the late night forecast remains in good shape. UPDATE Issued at 927 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Showers continue to rotate around the low, but coverage continues to be on a gradual decrease. This was reflected in previous forecast, and the forecast trend continues to be on track. Therefore, only minimal changes were needed. In addition, the wind advisory for far southwest North Dakota was allowed to expire as winds continue to gradually diminish over that area. UPDATE Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Deep low now centered to the north and a little west of Bismarck as of this writing, with rain showers continuing to circulate around it. Heaviest showers at this time remain over western and far northern portions of the state, more scattered over central North Dakota. We did have a period late this afternoon/early evening where the SPC non-supercell tornado parameter was elevated over parts of south central and southwest North Dakota, and we did receive a report and video of a funnel cloud near Dodge, but it never reached the ground. As the evening continues on, the threat will continue to diminish given the low level lapse rates/instability will be on the decrease as we cool. For early evening update, main change was to adjust shower coverage with current trends. Also, winds do remain quite gusty over the far southwest at Bowman and Hettinger, so will let the wind advisory continue until expiration in a couple hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 154 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Vertically stacked low pressure is centered over south central North Dakota and north central South Dakota at this time. Low pressure may meander a bit further north through the remainder of the day today before retrograding back to the south. Very windy conditions that are presently occurring in the far southwest should diminish quickly this evening. Showers will persist over much of western through central North Dakota, especially in the west and north. A line of thunderstorms is trying to develop mainly along and north of Highway 200. However, with mostly cloudy skies through the day, instability will remain limited. Therefore, the threat of severe weather remains low as any hail will likely remain smaller than quarter size. That said, with relatively cold air aloft, it wouldn`t be entirely surprising if a few cold air funnels don`t develop near the low this afternoon, while a landspout or two isn`t entirely out of the question either. Low pressure will finally begin to speed up and propagate to the southeast Wednesday through Wednesday night. As a result, isolated to scattered wrap-around rain showers will persist through Wednesday and possibly Wednesday night. Beyond that, expect a west to east tilted ridge to traverse over the Northern Plains Thursday through Thursday night. This will lead to warmer and mostly dry conditions for the end of the workweek through early next week. That said, weak shortwave energy flattening the ridge could provide light rain over the far eastern forecast area Friday afternoon, although no mentionable PoPs are present in the forecast at this time. Breezy to windy conditions are also expected Friday. By this weekend, temperatures are progged to reach the low to mid 70s across most of the forecast area. These are seasonably warm highs that are around 5 to 10 degrees above average for this time of year. Lows look to remain mostly in the 40s, which is near- average. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 111 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 MVFR/IFR ceilings should prevail across western and north central North Dakota into Wednesday afternoon. Across south central North Dakota, VFR ceilings are more likely to prevail, though some brief period of MVFR ceilings are possible. All terminals are forecast to improve to VFR conditions by Wednesday evening. Isolated to widely scattered showers will remain possible this forecast period, mainly across the west and north central. The strongest winds for this forecast period will be across northwest and north central North Dakota, with east to northeast winds around 15-20 kts. South central North Dakota (KBIS to KJMS) will see lighter southeast winds overnight, turning to the east on Wednesday. At KDIK, a westerly wind overnight should flip to the northeast and increase to near 15 kts on Wednesday. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...Telken AVIATION...Hollan