Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 261350

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
850 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Issued at 846 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Quick update for observed trends through 13 UTC and to increase
winds towards the higher edge of forecast guidance with peak gusts
already between 24-28kts being observed.

UPDATE Issued at 639 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Going forecast remains on track with winds gradually becoming
gusty across the west.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Current surface analysis places low pressure along the
Saskatchewan/Manitoba border with frontal boundary dipping down
near the Red River Valley, while high pressure stretches down
just to the east of the continental divide. Upper level analysis
places low along the Manitoba/Saskatchewan border, with secondary
low spinning over Idaho. Cyclonic flow remains over our area with
a variety of short waves noted moving through the flow.

For today...aforementioned upper low tends to loiter in place
keeping cyclonic flow over our area, which may result in some
showers developing primarily over northern locations this
afternoon into early this evening. At the surface, modest pressure
gradient remains in place with low to the north which will result
in yet another breezy day over the region.

For tonight...lingering showers should dissipate by mid-evening
with a quiet night to follow.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Saturday will bring the greatest chances for precipitation to our
area as the upper low meanders through Manitoba and a notable
short wave swings through the northern plains. With that said,
available moisture to work with will not be all that high so
not a lot of precipitation is expected. Chances push east

Low makes its way into Ontario for Sunday with the next wave
swinging around it which will bring rain chances to eastern
portions of the area.

For the upcoming week...upper ridging to the west will gradually
creep to the east bring mainly quiet weather through the end of
the extended period with a gradual warming trend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 846 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

MVFR stratus this morning across western and central North Dakota
will lift and scattered through the late morning and into the
afternoon. Strong west to northwest wind gusts of 25-30kts are
expected across much of the area today.




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