Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 241601
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1101 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1101 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Adjusted pops based on radar trends and latest high res model
output. Precip continues to work eastward and have also removed
western and southern tier of counties from the advisory area with
precip either having ended or temps above freezing. Light snow
continues across the north, including KMOT and points eastward.
KMIB reporting light freezing rain with latest ob. Will allow
advisory to continue across the north, but anticipate allowing it
to expire at 1 PM CDT.

UPDATE Issued at 907 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Back edge of precip continues to push eastward, though some
lingering light rain/freezing rain around Dickinson and along
portions of I-94 corridor. Media partner relayed report of icy
conditions on I-94 in Glen Ullin region and ND DOT travel map
shows icy roads vicinity of Dickinson. Bowman radar also shows
continued decrease in radar returns southwest. Also continue to
have light snow reported across the northwest, including KISN,
though that should be ending shortly also. Will continue to let
advisory ride for now, but will likely begin trimming counties
from it within an hour or so.

UPDATE Issued at 616 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Previous forecast remains in rather good shape, with only changes
needed were to slow down the ending of precipitation on the west
side a bit in line with latest radar trends and high-res guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

A surface low in South Dakota is producing widespread showers
across western and central North Dakota. So far this morning we`ve
seen mainly snow across northwestern North Dakota and a mix of
rain/snow across southwest North Dakota. The bulk of precipitation
should remain snow across locations along and north of Highway 2.
A mix of snow/freezing rain/rain is likely between Highway 2 and
200. Further south along the I-94 corridor we should see a mix of
rain/freezing rain. South of I-94 precipitation should remain all
rain. Air temperatures are generally at or below freezing across
most locations. However, surface temperatures are a few degrees
warmer. Initial precipitation may not freeze, but as precipitation
intensifies and dynamic cooling continues slick roads will become
a problem...mainly north of I-94. Precipitation should come to an
end by the afternoon. In the end between 1 and 3 inches of snow
is expected north of Highway 200. Higher amounts are possible the
Turtle Mountains.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Generally dry and cool weather is expected Tuesday through
Thursday with highs rising from the 30s and lower 40s Tuesday,
through the 40s to around 50 by Thursday. Expect partly cloudy
conditions through this time period. A strong storm will impact
portions of the plains next weekend, but latest trends have the
storm south of North Dakota.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Widespread MVFR-IFR conditions remain across all TAF sites through
the TAF period. A mix of rain/snow and possibly freezing rain
will continue to spread west to east across the area this morning.
Strong easterly wind will subside late tonight and shift
northeast and eventually north through the day.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for
NDZ002>005-010>013-021>023-025.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS



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