Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 310250
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
950 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE...WITH A TIME
LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 23-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND THE 00 UTC
NAM NEST STILL HANDLING WELL THE ONGOING POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
THUS...WILL FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AS OF 2330 UTC...A COLD FRONT WAS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE HIGHWAY
83 CORRIDOR...AND WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH
THE EVENING. THEREAFTER...POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 05 UTC AND SPREAD NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE STRONGER NORTHERN
US ROCKIES SHORTWAVE. GIVEN GOOD HANDLING OF ONGOING CONVECTION
THROUGH 23 UTC...USED A BLEND THE 20-22 UTC HRRR TIME LAGGED
ENSEMBLE AND 18 UTC NAM NEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS
NEARLY ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND THUS IS MOVING SLOWLY
EAST. IT APPEARS SOME SMOKE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND IMPACTING NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH WILLISTON AROUND 2 MILES
IN HAZE/SMOKE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADD A PERIOD OF SMOKEY
WEATHER FOR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MID EVENING.
OTHERWISE WILL NOT MENTION MORE SMOKE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES
SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE WITH
NOT MUCH MORE THAN 30 PERCENT POPS TONIGHT ENDING MONDAY MORNING.
COOLER MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT/PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS THEN DEPICTED FOR LATE NEXT
WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WITH MODELS STILL SHOWING INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. CAPPING DURING THE DAY MAY HOLD
OFF ON CONVECTION UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

BEYOND TUESDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND RIDGING OFF TO OUR EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH COMBINED WITH ANY EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WHEN A STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH 80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS THEN COOLING A
BIT INTO THE 70S AND 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF THEN BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
3-5C DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 3-4 UTC...AND SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
FEW POCKETS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. SMOKE MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND THICKER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD



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