Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 222255
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
555 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...REMOVED SHOWERS FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON
FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. OTHERWISE...ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITING THE REGION VIA SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. NORTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING IN SOME STRATO CU ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AND WILL EXIT THE REGION BY MID EVENING. ACROSS THE
EAST AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION AND WILL
CARRY THE SHOWERS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BE
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 7 PM CDT. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRYER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. GOOD VIEWING
OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TREND ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH ALL THE
DYNAMICS NORTH AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE STATE. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL PUSH
OFF TO THE EAST AS THE MODELS POINT TO A TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE MODELS
DIFFER GREATLY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN NEAR
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CIGS OVER KMOT WILL CLEAR OUT BY 03Z THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING
WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TM




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