Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 311751
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1251 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. LOWER STRATUS IS
QUICKLY ERODING OVER THE FAR WEST. TEMPERATURES LOOK IN LINE.
WIND ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST AT 18 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS REMAINS OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR WITH THIN CIRRUS SPREADING FROM CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATED SKY COVER IN THE WEST TO KEEP
CLOUDS IN THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. LATEST 13 UTC RAP SHOWS LOW
LEVEL RH DISSIPATING QUICKLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY MIDDAY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MORE MARGINAL CRITERIA FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY AS WE
MOVE CLOSER TO MIDDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

STRATUS DECK ORIENTED ALONG A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO
ERODE THIS MORNING AS VERTICAL MIXING COMMENCES. THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS
GOOD BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. ONLY MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO
THE NEAR-TERM HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG
WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO
SASKATCHEWAN...MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH AND
EAST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. LOW STRATUS DECK
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHRINK WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ERODES THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE CLOUDS. SCT-BKN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MATERIALIZES TODAY IN THE WAKE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA. AS IS COMMON WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW...STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT (40KTS +) LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE STRONGEST GRADIENT FORCING IS
DEPICTED. THUS CURRENT WIND ADVISORY (SOUTHWEST) LOOKS GOOD BASED
ON THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT ANALYSIS. BREEZY BUT SUB
ADVISORY WINDS ELSEWHERE.

DESPITE GOOD RETURN FLOW TODAY...SCT-BKN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK
COMBINED WITH A VERY COLD START THIS MORNING WILL ONLY SEE DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S CENTRAL AND EAST. A BIT WARMER WEST
(40S) THANKS TO A WARMER MORNING START AND BETTER WAA.

PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SUCH AS THEY ARE THIS
MORNING. THE BAD NEWS IS LOWS ARE STILL FORECAST AT 25 TO AROUND
30...RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CRESTS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN IN MONTANA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS NORTH
MONDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK CLIPPER CLIPS THE STATE. THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE EITHER
RAIN OR SNOW...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
BROAD UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LOWER STRATUS HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED A KISN AND KDIK. THEREFORE
WILL BE ABLE TO START OUT THE 18 UTC FORECAST WITH VFR CEILINGS
AT ALL AERODROMES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF RETURNING STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WEST/CENTRAL BUT MODELS INDICATE LESS OF AN
INVERSION TONIGHT WITH NOT AS MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040-041-
043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH






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