500
FXUS63 KFGF 091934
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
234 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms in western Minnesota Friday
  afternoon.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Fairly quiet for the first part of the night, but a shortwave
coming into Manitoba and Ontario over the top of the ridge could
bring some increasing cloud cover and some light shower activity
to northwestern MN later tonight. The shortwave will dig into
MN/WI during the day tomorrow, bringing some decent broad lift
over our eastern tier of counties into the afternoon. While much
will depend on how morning showers play out and how much cloud
cover remains, there is at least a 40 to 50 percent chance for
500 J/kg of CAPE by tomorrow afternoon. Deep layer bulk shear
will be 30 kts at best, so not expecting any severe potential,
but could see some impacts from lightning and very small hail
across northwestern and west central MN. Winds will be breezy
across much of the CWA as the shortwave comes down and some cold
air advection brings some gusts up to 35 mph at times.

Westerly surface winds and the warm sector of the surface low
will bring very toasty readings for Saturday, and some spots in
the RRV could push 80 degrees. A bit cooler Sunday as a trough
axis/cold front passes through. The next significant trough
starts to move into the western Plains on Tuesday, coming out in
some manner on Wednesday although clusters are still all over
the place. Still could see showers and a chance for
thunderstorms, but specifics on timing and strength too soon to
nail down at this point. Temps will cool down to near or just
below seasonal averages as the more active weather returns.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions now and throughout the period with only some
scattered cumulus clouds. Winds will be the primary issue with
some gusts to around 20 kts this afternoon that will drop off by
early evening. Winds will shift around to a more northwesterly
direction tonight into tomorrow, picking up with sustained
speeds in the 10 to 15 kts and gusts up to around 25 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR