Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 291201
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ADJUSTED POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AS IT SEEMS MOST OF THE
PRECIP HAS ENTERED OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. KEPT POPS A BIT
LONGER IN THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THINK WE ARE
PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH RAIN IN THAT AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...BUT SOME SPOTS
BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE FALLEN BACK BELOW. THINK THERE SHOULD BE
SOME MIXING AS THE SUN RISES AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...SO WILL LEAVE
THE ADVISORY AS IT IS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS AND PRECIP TODAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TOMORROW
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS THE POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO MOVE
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW HAS ENTERED THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA. MOST OF THE PRECIP THAT HAS FALLEN SO FAR HAS
BEEN EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERE IS
ALSO SOME RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT THE CLASSIC COMMA HEAD TYPE WRAP
AROUND. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MOSTLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE RADAR TRENDS. LOWERED POPS A BIT IN THE NORTHWEST WHICH SEEMS
THAT IT WILL GET BYPASSED...BUT KEPT CATEGORICAL/LIKELY IN THE
EAST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIP MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 16Z OR SO. THINK THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY
RAIN ALTHOUGH KEPT THE POWT TOOLS IDEA OF A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN
ON THE BACK EDGE.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ARE HITTING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN SOME AREAS...BUT OTHER RANDOM SPOTS ARE NOT BLOWING AS
HARD. MODELS ALL HAVE THE HIGHEST 925MB WINDS OF 40 KTS AROUND 12Z
AND THEN DECREASING BY 18Z. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH MIXING
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO GET PRETTY WINDY AROUND SUNRISE.
THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE WINDS WILL LAST...AS ALTHOUGH MIXING
WILL BE GOOD WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE THE 925/850MB WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY AS IT IS AND CAN CANCEL IF
NEEDED.

TONIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS IN BUT ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN FROM MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN BY MONDAY.
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER WITH QPF BUT
GIVEN ALL MODELS TENDANCY TO OVERDO PRECIP LATELY WILL KEEP BEST
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN CWA WITH FAIRLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. WITH WARMER
925 TEMPS MOVING IN THINK THAT THE PRECIP WILL MOSTLY BE RAIN
ALTHOUGH A FEW FLAKES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EVEN WITH
PRECIP THINK WITH WEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD WARM
NICELY AND KEPT HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MID WEEK. MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S UNDER A WEAK SFC HIGH BUT TEMPS WILL
RECOVER NICELY FOR TUESDAY AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SETS UP SOUTHERLY WINDS. A VERY WARM AIR MASS
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS C BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF MIXING FROM THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUN DURING THE DAY KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S FOR TUESDAY WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND A RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN
CANADA. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LEADS TO A SPLIT FLOW.
UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS WAS A FASTER
SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE TRENDING
SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL REMOVE POPS ON FRI
AND WILL SHIFT INTO FRI NIGHT.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WED AND
WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY NORTH.

HIGH TEMPS INCREASED TWO OR THREE DEGREE FOR WED. LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPS FOR THU THROUGH SAT FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS AT ALL BUT KBJI AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND KBJI SHOULD SWITCH OVER IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. CIGS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY MVFR ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS HAVE
DROPPED DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES. RAIN IS IMPACTING KFAR AND
KBJI...BUT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE MORE WESTERN TAF SITES. CLEARING
LINE IS ALREADY APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND
KDVL SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING. CLOUDS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND THINK THAT ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...HOPPES
AVIATION...JR






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