000
FXUS63 KFGF 090348
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
948 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

CURRENT FORECAST OVERALL ON TRACK. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER AS AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PATCHY CLOUDS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA A LITTLE LONGER THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD OFF SET
INITIAL COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN FA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST AND SHOULD EXIT THE VALLEY
REGION IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. CLEARING THROUGH DEVILS LAKE WITH RELATED DROP IN
TEMPERATURE. SO FAR THIS HANDLED WELL BY CURRENT FORECAST SO NO
UPDATE NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
ANTICIPATE CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WITH
CLEARING AND 10-15 MPH WIND BEHIND THIS FEATURE. WITH THE
CLEARING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. THESE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS WILL BE WIND CHILLS
INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON...TIMING IT ALONG WITH THE CLEARING. WILL
CONSIDER EXPANDING THE ADVISORY IN TIME ON LATER SHIFTS.

REGION WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY...WITH A CLIPPER
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW INTO THE NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THIS SNOWFALL WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
INTO A MAJORITY OF THE FA MONDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN
INCH THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. THE MAIN PUSH OF WINDS WILL BE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO MIXING OF WINDS TO THE SURFACE
WILL BE MINIMIZED. AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA...ENOUGH FOR DRIFTING SNOW...BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR BLOWING
SNOW REDUCING VSBY TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS IS VERY LOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
(ALTHOUGH COULD BE VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AT TIMES WITH ANY
WAVE IN FAST MOVING UPPER FLOW). THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...FOR WED NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SFC PATTERN
WOULD FAVOR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN FA AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PERIODIC LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE
WESTERN FA. MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES APPEARS TO BE
WEAK WARM ADVECTION. BY SAT INTO SUN THE FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL AND
THE SFC HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO TRACK ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WOULD SPREAD A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW TO
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. TEMPS
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WOULD BE THE MILDEST SINCE THE COLD SNAP
STARTED. HOWEVER THIS IS STILL QUITE A WAYS OFF YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBY CONTINUE IN SNOW BAND WITH WEST EDGE NOW
REACHING THE WESTERN VALLEY. CLEARING THROUGH DVL AND ALL FEATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST AT AROUND 20KTS. MAIN CHALLENGE WAS TO
TIME ENDING OF SNOW AND LIFTING OF CIGS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ALL BUT
FAR EAST WILL BE VFR BY MIDNIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ030-039-049-052-
     053.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>029-038-054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER