185
FXUS63 KFGF 241955
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
255 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

The main challenge will be pcpn chances tonight and then the
lingering effects of this system into Sunday. As of mid afternoon
the main tstm action has been over southeast SD into southwest MN.
This activity seems to be more focused along the sfc warm front,
which is tied to the sfc low over southwest ND. The main 500 mb
low is also over the western high plains, quite a bit further west
than our FA. Cloud cover has inhibited temps today, but mainly
over northwest MN. Despite the clouds the strong SSE wind push has
brought up mid 60 dew points and temps in the upper 70s to near
80F across the south.

Instability has risen to about what was expected today, in the
500-1500 J/kg range. However, there still has not been much
activity developing other than that further south. Latest SPC HRRR
shows the activity further south lifting up into mainly west
central MN tonight, but it does have a little pcpn poking up thru
the central and northern Red River Valley. The dry slot will try
to push up into the FA later tonight followed by the wrap around
on Sunday. Gusty northwest winds will also kick up on Sunday, but
at this point it looks like the worst of it may brush the Devils
Lake region and areas just west of the valley. Later shifts can
take another look at that.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Upper level low will begin to exit the area Sunday night with
wraparound showers exiting northwestern Minnesota.  Clearing to move
in Monday...though may take a bit longer to clear out the far
eastern fcst area than models indicate.  Breezy north-northwest
Sunday night into Monday before diminishing Monday evening as high
pressure ridge begins to move in.  Clear or clearing out Monday
night all areas with sfc high over eastern North Dakota by 12z
Tuesday.  Looks like a cool night and coordinated with BIS/ABR and
dropped lows below model blend guidance and have mostly upper 30s.
Dry Wed-Thu as upper level ridge builds in for dry and a bit milder
airmass.  A weak short wave will move in for Friday into Saturday
giving a chance for precipitation.  Temperatures will run a tad
above normal late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Winds have been a little slow to materialize in areas that had fog
earlier this morning. Most of the gusts have been at KFAR and
points southward. Main challenge for the TAFs will be any thunder
development this afternoon and evening. Tried to break down a 2-3
hour period that the SPC HRRR is showing the best chances being
during. Other than that, wind gusts should decrease during the
evening, but ceilings will be highly variable. Wrap around pcpn
and low clouds will roll back into the FA on Sunday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...Godon