000
FXUS63 KFGF 100904
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
404 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

THE GEM WAS THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST WITH THE
GFS AND NAM COMPROMISES. WILL BLEND THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
ALTA. ALSO A SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MT. MT SHORT
WAVE/JET STREAK FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN ND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL JET TO RESPOND OVER SD AND NE. INCREASED POPS A
BIT OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TRIMMED BACK POPS IN THE WEST FOR LATE TONIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT
WAVE. ALSO COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT BUT MAJORITY
OF PRECIP TO OCCUR IN SOUTHERN CANADA. POPS TWEAKED FOR FRI BUT
PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST ZONES WITH SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME RETURN FLOW PRECIP EXPECTED ON SAT AND PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SAT NIGHT WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

TEMPS TWEAKED A BIT...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER FOR HIGH
TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH HIGHLY ANOMALOUS DEEP 500MB TROUGH PUSHING DOWN INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IN THE BLYR NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH 850MB 25KT
WINDS BRINGING 4C TEMPS OVER THE REGION. WITH STRONG UPPER FORCING
AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTING SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MONDAY
WITH NEAR RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS THAT AFTN. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE  AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY
AND SLIDES EAST FOR WEDNESDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS UNUSUAL JULY PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME THICKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH MAYBE SOME SPOTTY
STORMS ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER AREA LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...VOELKER