735
FXUS61 KILN 121748
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
148 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will move off to the east tonight
and Monday. Low pressure will move out of the Ozarks and track
east across Kentucky Monday night through Wednesday resulting in
unsettled conditions across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure extends across the area. There will be a good
deal of sun with just a few cumulus/cirrus developing.
Temperatures will be a bit warmer than yesterday with highs in
the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Tail end of a weak short wave passing across the Great Lakes
will brush by the area this evening. This could keep some clouds
in northern counties before clearing after midnight.

Surface ridge axis will be in place to the east of the area but
its influence will persist well into Monday. The mid level
ridge axis will translate eastward during the day which will
then allow increasing mid and upper level moisture to stream
into the area during the afternoon. While primary forcing will
still be west of the region through the end of the day, cannot
rule out a few showers developing into western counties,
primarily along and west of I-75.

Modest warming trend will continue with lows in the lower to
mid 50s and highs in the mid 70s to around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure advancing from Missouri to Kentucky will bring
widespread showers and a few thunderstorms Monday night and
Tuesday. Severe weather appears unlikely from an environment
containing less than 500 J/KG CAPE and relatively weak winds
aloft. Showers will diminish Tuesday night and Wednesday as the
system moves east, while northerly winds gust over 20 knots.
Thursday looks to be dry under a ridge of high pressure. A
frontal boundary will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms
on Friday. A few more showers and storms will be possible on
Saturday in residual moisture behind the front.

Temperature forecast starts near normal with highs in the low
to mid 70s Tuesday, with highs perhaps a degree or two cooler on
Wednesday under the northerly flow. A modest warming trend is
indicated for the rest of the period, resulting in highs in the
mid and upper 70s in most locations, with 80 possible on
Saturday near the Ohio River.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
North to south surface ridge axis was located across the region
this afternoon. Only a FEW high based cumulus clouds and a FEW
cirrus clouds were noted. Winds will shift to the west/southwest
as the axis passes by. Winds will become southerly in nature by
00Z Monday.

For tonight, surface ridge will continue east. A southerly flow
pattern can be expected at the surface between the departing
high and a frontal system sagging southeast into the western
Great Lakes. Just some SCT cirrus is forecast overnight. There
could be some shallow MVFR mist at KLUK between 08Z and 12Z.

On Monday, a mid level ridge axis over the middle Ohio Valley
will pass off to the east. This will allow an increase in mid
and high clouds to occur from the west during the day. Some
diurnal cumulus will develop around 16Z as southerly winds
increase and become locally gusty between 15 and 20 knots.
Moisture ahead of the next weather system to our southwest may
bring a low chance of showers near KCVG toward 00Z Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are likely Monday
night into Wednesday, with a period of IFR ceilings and
visibilities possible. Thunderstorms will also be possible
Monday night into Tuesday night. MVFR ceilings and visibilities
possible Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Hickman