Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
952 FXUS61 KILN 122324 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 724 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms are possible through Sunday, particularly in the afternoon and evening before drier conditions returns for the start of the workweek. Warm temperatures drop closer to normal on Sunday and Monday, with warmer and more humid air returning by midweek. Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible midweek and beyond with a return to a more active pattern. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... A lead mid level shortwave lifts northeast from the mid MS Valley into the Great Lakes today getting absorbed into a larger/deeper trough digging southeast into the Great Lakes. The Ohio Valley is in a warm southwesterly flow which supports hot and humid conditions with increasing instability to support storms this afternoon into this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed in the unstable airmass where SBCAPE values of 2000-2500 J/KG exist. With initial shortwave pivoting into the Great Lakes - better wind flow will remain north of the area. Deep-layer shear will be weak, with effective shear around 15 kts, so storm organization should be limited. DCAPE values of 1000-1200 J/kg suggest that gusty to damaging winds will be possible due to downburst/outflow with the strongest storms thru early evening. Locally heavy rain and isolated flooding is also possible due to PWat values around 125% of seasonal normal. Regarding coverage - initial scattered activity will push off to the east before another area of storms moves into the west late day into this evening and weaken as they track east due to loss of heating. Can not rule out isolated lingering showers or even a thunderstorm into the overnight hours with surface front moving into the area toward sunrise. Warm and muggy conditions will continue tonight with lows in the in the upper 60s and lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/... A southwest flow aloft continues over the area until mid level trof axis pivots thru the Great Lakes Sunday night. Slow moving front slips into the area Sunday and stalls out and washes out Sunday night. Although forcing is weak expect some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop, with the best coverage southeast of I-71 where the best instby will develop in the 1000-1500 J/KG range. Highs to top out in the mid and upper 80s. Have mainly a dry forecast Sunday night but confidence is rather low with some members producing pcpn ahead of an embedded shortwave trof axis. Lows are expected in the mid and upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Weak high pressure pushes southeast into the middle Ohio Valley on Monday and will drift a bit to the east on Tuesday. With the old cold front to our south, most of the precipitation should stay in that direction, with only a slight chance due to spatial differences in the models. This sporadic convection continues Tuesday afternoon as moisture begins to return on the back side of the surface high. Mid-level heights will increase Wednesday in response to an approaching shortwave across the upper Midwest into the upper Great Lakes. Even so, there could be disturbances ejecting ahead of the wave. In the hot and humid boundary layer, expecting an increase in showers and storms both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. A cold front will arrive into the lower Great Lakes or Ohio Valley Friday, so storm chances will continue this day. As the front sags south, we could keep a chance for storms southeast of I-71 into Saturday. Temperatures will generally be above normal through the extended period with perhaps slightly cooler conditions by week`s end if the cold front clears our area. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Scattered thunderstorms developed this aftn in the warm and unstable airmass ahead of cold front. A few of the stronger storms have produced strong winds. An axis of moderate instability was continuing to support an axis of thunderstorms along the I-corridor. Overall weakening trend observed and will continue with this activity decreasing with the loss of heating as it pushes east across the TAF sites early this evening. Can not rule out an isold shower or thunderstorm thru the overnight hours with the front moving into the area late and washing out. VFR conditions drop to MVFR past 06z through daybreak Sunday before lifting/scattering once again by 15z. Some MVFR VSBYs in fog cannot be ruled out tonight. Additional shower and thunderstorm development possible Sunday with the best coverage over the east. Have limited any mention to prob30 at KCMH/KLCK. There is a signal for fog development Sunday night but with expected clouds forecast have omitted the mention at 30 hour KCVG TAF thru 06Z at this time. Southwest winds around 10kts decrease this evening and veer to the west by daybreak Sunday. West winds at less than 10 kts expected Sunday. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...AR