000
FXUS63 KUNR 221057
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
457 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Windy and slightly cooler today.

-Turning unsettled this week with chances for showers and
 thunderstorms returning by Thurs and continuing into the
 weekend.

-Breezy at times this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Sunday)
Issued at 117 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Progressive NW flow will transition to western CONUS troughing
this week as another deep upper trough moves out of the eastern
Pac. This will support a shift to wetter and more unsettled flow
toward the end of the week with a good chance of showers by Fri.
Currently, a fast moving NW flow impulse is advecting through the
region. The main impact from this system will be gusty NW winds,
which will develop behind a cool front, with adv level winds
expected across NW SD. Temps will be cooler than yesterday, but
right around seasonal norms in the 50s and low 60s. Dry and
seasonal weather can be expected Tues with breezy NW winds
continuing on the SD plains. Shortwave ridging will ensue Wed
along with WAA. Temps will warm into the 70s at many locations
with breezy southerly winds developing on the SD plains. Western
CONUS trough will shift east and support increasing chances for
showers and a few TS Thur/Fri as deeper moisture advects into the
region ahead of a sfc low. Cool and unsettled conds can be
expected into the weekend as cyclonic flow will linger aloft in
weak CAA flow. The best chance for appreciable rains looks to be
from SW to scentral SD where over an inch is possible Thur-Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued At 453 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A cold front currently crossing the region is producing some light
rain showers over northwestern SD, these showers will move from
northwest to southeast along with the front and may result in
local MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions anticipated
through the TAF period.

Gusty northwest winds will develop this morning across the western
SD plains. Winds will be strongest in northwestern SD where gusts
of 40 to 45 kts are possible. Winds will diminish late this
evening.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening
     for SDZ001-002-012>014-078.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...Wong