Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 200512
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1012 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 256 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW FROM EASTERN
MT THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND ACROSS NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS STILL
SHOWS TROF AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH A FEW
FLURRIES OVER NORTHWESTERN SD. MID AFTERNOON TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR
20 OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN SD TO THE LOWER 30S OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD. BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL SD
PLAINS.

A MAINLY DRY PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK WITH A WARMING
TREND FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STAY MOSTLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY...WITH A
NORTHEASTWARD PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST WY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE BLACK HILLS AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FRONT...A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST. HAVE ADDED
PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WOULD NOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL LATER TONIGHT IN A
FEW AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR THIS RIGHT NOW.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S OVER FAR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...TO THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTHEAST WY.
SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH THE MOST SUN
EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
MAY KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE SD
PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
40S. SNOW CHANCES WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ARCTIC AIR WILL AGAIN PUSH SOUTHWARD...RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPS
FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON
SUNDAY AS WELL. UNDER AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...THERE ARE DAILY
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LOWEST CIGS WILL BE AROUND THE BLACK
HILLS WITH LCL LIFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...7






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