Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 290242
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1042 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST OVERNIGHT. ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP MODERATE
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...THE AREA OF SNOW WHICH LINGERED FOR SEVERAL
HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION HAS FINALLY
STARTED TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE...AND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH AND EAST. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TACONICS AND SOUTH CENTRAL BERKSHIRES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE ENDING. FURTHER N AND W...ANY FLURRIES SHOULD
END OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

MEANWHILE...THE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY HAS ALSO
DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND SHIFTED SOUTHWARD...AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MOISTURE BEGIN
TO MOVE EAST. THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
THROUGH AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESP ACROSS NW LITCHFIELD
CO AS THE REMNANTS OF THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
TACONICS/BERKSHIRES MAY REACH THESE AREAS. AN ADDITIONAL COATING
TO LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH COULD OCCUR IN THESE AREAS.

OTHERWISE...CLEARING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WITH THE CLEARING LINE
ADVANCING SOUTHEAST. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN QUITE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALREADY. HAVE
LOWERED MIN TEMPS IN THESE AREAS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...ALTHOUGH EVEN THESE TEMPS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS HAVE BEEN MUCH SLOWER TO FALL DUE TO PERSISTENT
CLOUDS AND SOME WIND. HAVE NOT LOWERED MINS TOO MUCH IN OTHER
AREAS...EXPECTED TO FALL MAINLY INTO THE TEENS...BUT IF WINDS
DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED ONCE THE SKIES CLEAR...EVEN
COLDER TEMPS MAY RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z/SUN IN THE VICINITY OF KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR BEFORE IT
TAPERS OFF.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT...INITIALLY
AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE
WEST SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY...AT
5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL


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