Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 230257
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
957 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will gather strength in the southeast U.S tonight,
before emerging off the mid-Atlantic coast by Monday. This
system looks to bring significant precipitation to much of the
region from Monday through Tuesday. Colder air will filter in
tonight, with a few spotty light showers of mixed precipitation.
Steadier precipitation will spread from south to north across
the region on Monday, becoming heaviest Monday night and
diminishing late Tuesday. The best chance for accumulating snow
and ice will be within the higher terrain of the Adirondacks,
Catskills, Berkshires, and southern Greens. However, lighter
accumulations of snow and sleet are likely even in valley areas.
Gusty easterly wind will also occur as the coastal storm
continues to strengthen just south of New York City Monday night
into Tuesday. The storm will finally pull away from the region
Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 10pm EST...as the surface high over Quebec continues to
nose southward, east/northeasterly flow at low levels will
increase, resulting in a continuation of cold air advection.
Drizzle/light showers continue to blossom roughly along and
north of I-90. Have increased PoPs in coordination with
surrounding offices. Some concern that light icing could occur
over the higher terrain of Western New England, the Taconics,
and perhaps the Catskills as temps aloft still may support
liquid p-type early tonight. SPS in place to highlight this
threat. Precip may trend toward light sleet/snow from northeast
to southwest as temps aloft cool, and hi-res models support a
downturn in coverage after 06Z. Otherwise, forecast is in good
shape in terms of temps and winds.

Previous discussion...For tonight...Low pressure will move
slowly east from the Tennessee Valley as High pressure remains
banked across the Canadian Maritimes. A cold front that was
dropping south towards the region has weakened, however this may
be the impetus for some spotty light precipitation overnight
which may be in the form of light sleet or freezing rain late
tonight mainly across the higher terrain either side of the
Hudson River Valley. Since the precipitation will be light and
we only have chance pops in these areas will issue a SPS to
cover this occurrence. It will be cloudy overnight across the
remainder of the forecast area with little in the way of
precipitation expected. Lows overnight are expected to range
from the mid 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A wind advisory is in effect for the Taconics and western New
England from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM Tuesday.

A winter weather advisory is in effect for areas from the Mohawk
Valley to the Berkshires south from 1 PM Monday to 7 PM Tuesday.

A winter weather advisory is in effect for the southern
Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga Region and southern Vermont
from 7 PM Monday until 10 PM on Tuesday.

A complex storm system will impact the region mainly later
Monday morning through Tuesday evening. The difficulty in the
forecast lies with what pcpn type will be predominant and where
it will fall and when. Some of the partial thickness values and
BUFKIT model soundings are indicating that a prolonged period of
sleet may occur from late Monday morning through much of the
day on Tuesday. Where some other guidance such as the SREF pcpn
type probabilities are showing some freezing rain especially
across the mountains. The surface low tracks east from western
North Carolina Monday morning to east of Cape Hatteras Monday
evening and then northeast to south of Long Island Tuesday
morning and into the Canadian Maritimes Wednesday morning as the
upper low and trough axis swing through the region late Tuesday
providing additional QPF. The best way to sum up what is
expected to happen is by highlighting the periods of heaviest
precipitation which will be from Monday afternoon through Monday
night and the expected pcpn type and accumulations with mainly
a snow and ice event across the northern mountains with light
accumulation in the valleys. Valley areas can expect generally 1
to 3 inches of accumulation of mainly sleet with little ice
accretion, while the mountains can generally expect 2 to 6
inches of snow and sleet accumulation with a tenth of an inch or
so of ice. The higher terrain of southern Vermont may see up to
a quarter of an inch of ice while the western Adirondacks may
see up to 8 inches of snow and sleet accumulation. The
precipitation will diminish quickly Tuesday evening with
decreasing clouds overnight. One other potential problem will
be the strong southeast winds Monday into Monday night mainly
across the Taconics and western New England with wind gusts of
45 kts possible. The

Highs on Monday will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s with lows
Monday night in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Highs on Tuesday will be
in the 30s to around 40 with lows Tuesday night in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure races from Chicagoland up through the Great Lakes and
southern Quebec Wednesday and Wednesday night.  The cold front
associated with it will rush through Wednesday night with scattered
showers of mixed precipitation which will taper off as snow showers
and flurries at most locations.  This will set the stage for lake
effect conditions that will persist through the remainder of the
period.

A broad moisture pattern at first will allow for lake effect to
affect locations outside of the usual lake-effect-prone areas.
However...amounts will be mainly light...and probably not be all
snow.  By Saturday the activity will become more confined yet less
concerning...with the entire Hudson Valley free of any threat by
Sunday.  The pattern will keep skies mostly cloudy throughout...with
little more than occasional breaks from time-to-time.

Temperatures will continue to run well above normal but with a
cooling trend.  Highs on Wednesday will range from the mid 30s to
mid 40s...but will be in only the lower 20s to upper 30s Saturday
and Sunday.  Overnight lows will range from mainly the upper 20s to
mid 30s Wednesday night...to the mid teens to lower 20s by Saturday
night.  Albany`s normal high temperature for late January is in the
lower 30s...with the low in the mid teens.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tricky TAF forecast tonight as IFR conditions remain at
KGFL/KALB/KPSF due to lingering moisture trapped beneath an
inversion. Normally having IFR conditions developing early in
the evening is a good indicator of their persistence overnight.
However, as low-level easterly flow increases due to high
pressure creeping in from the north while low pressure
approaches from the south, guidance indicates conditions
improving to MVFR later tonight. Have kept that theme going from
previous TAF package, but confidence is not high on if/when IFR
conditions will improve to MVFR. A few spotty showers may impact
the terminals from time to time overnight as well, so VCSH was
kept in the TAFs.

Confidence is a bit higher in MVFR conditions developing by
Monday morning after sunset as easterly flow continues to
increase and helps mix out low-level moisture. A strong low
pressure system approaching from the south will spread
precipitation from south to north across the terminal corridor
Monday afternoon. There could be some light showers around in
the morning as well, but confidence was not high enough to
include in the TAFs at this point. In addition, downsloping
easterly flow will act to inhibit the northward spread of
precipitation somewhat. Precipitation type will be a challenge,
with rain, sleet, and snow all a possibility toward the end of
the TAF period. P-type and timing will continue to be refined in
future packages.

East-northeasterly winds will be mainly 5-10kt overnight,
gusting to 15-30 kt after daybreak Monday, with the strongest
gusts developing in the afternoon, especially at KPSF. LLWS is
in place for late tonight into early tomorrow morning at
KPSF/KPOU as low-level winds increase while remaining weaker at
the surface.

Outlook...

Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy Definite RA...SN.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy Definite RA...SLEET.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN...RA...SN.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA...SN.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread precipitation will occur from Monday through
Tuesday, but there are still questions regarding the exact
precipitation type and amounts. The latest MMEFS only shows
potential for some minor tidal flooding at Poughkeepsie.
Otherwise, just within bank river rises are expected to occur,
as frozen precipitation will cut back on runoff potential.

Gradual cooling will occur through the rest of the week, with
chances for rain and/or snow showers through Thursday, and snow
showers from Friday into next weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday
     for CTZ001-013.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for CTZ001-
     013.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday
     for NYZ038>040-047>054-058>061-063>066.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ054-
     061-066.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 10 PM EST Tuesday
     for NYZ032-033-041>043-082>084.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday
     for MAZ001-025.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ001-
     025.
VT...Wind Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
     VTZ013>015.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 10 PM EST Tuesday
     for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/Thompson/JPV
NEAR TERM...11/Thompson
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...Thompson
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV



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