Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 040245
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1045 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. GENERALLY DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THIS
EVENING WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING. LATER TONIGHT...CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SO WILL KEEP
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER 6 AM SATURDAY. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE COOL AGAIN...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA. MOST OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IN THE
AREA NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...ESP FROM AROUND
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR LESS...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH DUE TO
THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE. NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FOR SAT NT...AFTER A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AND
TEMPS WILL DROP TO LOWS IN THE 50S. SOME UPPER 40S ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACTS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY RESULTING IN THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK FEATURING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL INCREASINGLY MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ON
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF
THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE/PERHAPS A WEAK COASTAL LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS MOVEMENT
AND RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AT NIGHT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CIGS WILL BE VERY HIGH
INITIALLY...THEN GRADUALLY LOWERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT
REMAINING VFR.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. STILL EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE PERSISTENT SHOWERS. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND OCCASIONAL.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THERE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM


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