Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 042358
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
758 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WE WATCH FOR A DEVELOPING STORM TO OUR SOUTH AND WHAT...IF
ANY...IMPACTS FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TRENDING TO CALMER WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT...

AS OF 600 PM EDT...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUICKLY BEGINNING TO STABILIZE WITH
LOSS OF PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. CONTINUE TO TRACK TWO MAIN
AREAS...THE FIRST A BATCH OF SHOWERS/WEAKENED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND
EXTREME NORTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...AND ONE CELL TRACKING EAST INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY THAT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
HAVE TAKEN A BLENDED MESOSCALE MODEL APPROACH WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
AND CHANCE POPS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO GETTING AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS
THE CAPITAL REGION TOWARDS SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL
START OFF THE EVENING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE PIECES OF UPPER- LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY...NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS
ARE EXPECTED DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE/INITIATE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN MIGRATE INTO THE
VALLEYS. AS FOR OVERALL INSTABILITY...NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS
TUESDAYS BUT SBCAPES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG WITH SHOWALTERS NEAR OR
JUST BELOW 0C. WHERE DEEPER CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH INVERTED-V TYPE
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH LINEAR HODOGRAPHS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
DROPPING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 8K FEET. AS THE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK
TO JUST BELOW 10C...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS WELL
WITH MAINLY 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT SLOWLY RECOVER AND SURFACE PRESSURES BUILD. WE WILL REDUCE
POPS/WX WITH A MOCLR-PT/MOCLDY SKY FORECAST /MAINLY THE DACKS FOR
MOCLDY/ ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 60S AND 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
40S TO MID 50S.

WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST TRENDS
ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE EVOLVING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WATCHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIKELY DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
MOVING TOWARDS THE DELMARVA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL TRENDS FROM
GFS/ECMWF INDICATING THIS SYSTEM TO PASS BY TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION. IN FACT...BOTH 12Z
MODELS SHOWING NO QPF. SO AS NOT TO CHANGE FORECAST CONSISTENCY
CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL MORE THAN THREE
DAYS AWAY...WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE RANGE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST.

WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AGAIN FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF ALBANY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
COASTAL STORM TRACKING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE MAY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN SYNCH AT THIS TIME SO
WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE POPS WEST OF ALBANY AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST.
THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE
DEVELOPING FAST FLOW ALOFT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TO SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A
SMALL BATCH OF SHRA WEST OF KALB SO WILL MENTION A VCSH FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS THERE. OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE DRY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN NY MAY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FROM AROUND KALB NORTHWARD TO KGFL. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER DARK
THOUGH...SO AGAIN WILL MENTION JUST VCSH FOR NOW.

SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KPSF OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR
AND WINDS DECREASE. RAINFALL FROM EARLIER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOIST
GROUND CONDITIONS WHICH WILL AID IN FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITION HAVE BEEN FORECAST STARTING AROUND 04Z-06Z.
ELSEWHERE FOG FORMATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED EXCEPT FOR SOME BR AND
POSSIBLE MVFR VSBY AT KGFL.

WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL PARKED OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY..SOME WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT KALB/KGFL/KPSF MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AFTER
DARK...THEN BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 9-12 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME
GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CIRCULATE DISTURBANCES AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUM RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT CLIMB
BACK TOWARD 70-100 PERCENT THEN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 40-70 PERCENT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
LESS THAN 10 MPH...THEN INCREASE 10-15 MPH FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
AS BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/IRL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM


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