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000
FXUS61 KALY 011440
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
940 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. IT WILL
NOT BE AS COLD AS SATURDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM EST...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM NOT
HAVING MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SCATTERED FLURRIES CONTINUE TO
MOVE SSE INTO THE SOUTHERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CATSKILLS.
THIS WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SOME PARTS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ARE
EXPERIENCING SOME BRIEF SUNSHINE. AS WE WORKING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. SOME OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY WORK INTO THE REGION BEFORE 00Z THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER AS SUPPORTED BY OUR 12Z ALB SOUNDING...THE MID
LEVELS ARE VERY DRY WHICH WILL DELAY THE SNOWFALL FROM REACHING
THE SURFACE WITH SOME VIRGA TO START BEFORE THE SNOWFALL BEGINS
LATER ON TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT IS
EXPECTED AS A NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH SNOW
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING.

ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE THIS EVENING TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
THEN PASSES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON MONDAY. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE ISTENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT H7 AROUND 18Z ON MONDAY
AND A DECENT THETA E PLUME H10-H8 DURING MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE
SNOW SHOULD BE THE HEAVIEST. PLUME DIAGRAMS FOR ALBANY ARE
CENTERED BTWN 0.6 AND 1.0 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH FOR THIS STORM GENERALLY IN THE
15-20:1 RANGE. WITH ALL OF THIS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION HAVE
UPGRADED THE FINAL FOUR ZONES UP NORTH TO A WARNING SUCH THAT NOW
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN A WARNING. EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS
ARE 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES WITH 8 TO 16
INCHES ELSEWHERE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BEHIND THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DESCENDS ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO ZERO OR
BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND
COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE MAY ONCE AGAIN NEED
WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION AND
THEN PASS TO OUR EAST LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE VERY COLD WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THU...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON REGARDING THIS CLIPPER...IS THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER WED INTO THU AS TO WHETHER SOME
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY/MOISTURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NW
MEXICO...TRANSLATES NORTHEAST AND BECOMES PARTIALLY PHASED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...AS THE 00Z/01 ECMWF
AND A FEW GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST...THAN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW...AND POSSIBLY GREATER AMOUNTS COULD RESULT SOMETIME BETWEEN
WED AND EARLY FRI...BUT THIS APPEARS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY AT
THIS TIME.

ASSUMING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK/PROGRESSIVE AND EXITS TO
THE EAST...AN ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS
ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRI INTO
EARLY SAT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION HEADING INTO LATE SAT AND SUN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SOME SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING
APPROACHING 20. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO...WITH WIND CHILLS GENERALLY 5 BELOW ZERO TO 15 BELOW
ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS...AND A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF...AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS FRONT. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL SPREAD STEADY SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BEGINNING BETWEEN 04Z-07Z/MON.

AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH TODAY...CIGS MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR
RANGE. ALSO...WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
OCCUR...VSBYS COULD DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE...AND EVEN BRIEFLY IFR
AT KPSF.

LATER THIS MORNING...CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN CIGS AROUND
3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST.

AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES...WE EXPECT A
STEADY SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 04Z-07Z/MON. INITIALLY THE SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...BUT AFTER ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO OF STARTING...INTENSITY WILL
INCREASE...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TO BE FALLING AT
KALB/KPSF/KPOU TOWARD AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 10Z/MON. THE HEAVIER
SNOW MAY NOT REACH KGFL UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z/MON. EXPECT FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE ONCE THE
STEADY SNOW DEVELOPS...WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR DEVELOPING CLOSER TO
10Z-12Z/SUN.

LIGHT WEST WINDS THIS MORNING AT 5-10 KT WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH AS THE FRONT PASSES AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL THEN VEER INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT AT 5-10 KT...BUT SOME GUSTS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
12Z/MON...ESP AT KALB...WHERE THEY COULD REACH TO AROUND 15-20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ICE
TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES
OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IRL/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11