Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 301406
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1006 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT...WORKING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL
APPROACH OUR AREA BY TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BREAK
OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN...AS THE
COLD FRONT REACHES OUR REGION...IT WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
ALBANY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHICH COULD BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...A REVIEW OF THE 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL PWATS ARE
CLIMBING ACROSS WESTERN NY/PA WITH THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS
TRANSVERSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA. H2O VAPOR
LOOP REVEALS THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A FEW SUBTLE EMBEDDED WAVES ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES. MODIFYING THE SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM YIELDS SBCAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO CONTINUE THE
PREVIOUS SPC OUTLOOK OF `MARGINAL` 5%. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP CLOSE TO THE NOON HOUR THEN EXPAND IN
COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AS THIS UPSTREAM FRONT SLOWS
DOWN ITS FORWARD PROPAGATION AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER
PWATS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3RD OF THE CWFA. SO FOR THIS
ESTF...MODIFIED THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
OBSERVATIONS...ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
RESPECT TO SOME GUST WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN AND PER THE
SOUNDINGS...OUR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.


PREV DISC...
AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP...IT WILL BECOME UNSTABLE. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST (AROUND 5.5 C/KM). HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL
RAMP UP TO ABOUT 1500 SBCAPES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CROP UP...ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR
MOST OF OUR REGION IN MARGINAL WHICH MEANS SOME STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE STORMS COULD HAPPEN LATER TODAY DUE TO INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT. WE WILL INTRODUCE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY
CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS. SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE...BUT RIGHT NOW...WIND
APPEARS THE BIGGER THREAT.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THIS CURRENT WARM SPELL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND BY AFTERNOON...MOST PLACES
WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE  THIS
EVENING...AND WORK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CAPITAL REGION OVERNIGHT.
WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND EVENTUALLY ANTICYLONICALLY
CURVED UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION...COMBINING WITH PWATS WELL
OVER 1.5 INCHES...THIS SET UP IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A GOOD
BET TO BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.

NOW IT WILL PROBABLY NOT RAIN THE WHOLE TIME FRAME. INITIALLY IT
LOOKS LIKE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW MORE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THERE MIGHT BE A REDUCTION IN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS ONE WAVE PASSES
BY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS AS IF A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
FORM BY LATE SUNDAY...TRACKING FROM THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY...WESTERN PA AND UP ACROSS NY STATE. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
SHOT OF STEADY RAIN...POSSIBLY MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY AT TIMES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY CHILLIER BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FIRST AREAS
TO FEEL THIS WILL BE NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S...WHILE MUGGIER 60S WILL BE
COMMON FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD.

SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES MIGHT HOLD IN THE MID OR UPPER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...LOWER 60S IN THE CAPITAL REGION...STILL WARMER
SOUTH WHERE THE FRONT WILL LIKELY TO CLEAR UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES NEAR POUGHKEEPSIE WILL LIKELY POP INTO THE 70S.

MUCH COOLER EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY AS OUR REGION LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
THE COOL SECTORS...GENERALLY AROUND 70 SOUTH...LOWER TO MID 60S IN
AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...60 OR LOWER NORTH. THESE VALUES ARE
MUCH CLOSER FOR THE 1ST DAY OF MAY AS OPPOSED TO THE FIRST DAY OF
JUNE.

TO THE SOUTH OF CAPITAL REGION...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK THROUGH.

CHECKING ANOMALIES...THE PWATS UP TO 1.75 INCHES CONTINUE TO BE 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL. THE H850 SOUTHERLY COMPONENT  REACHED
THE 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATION RANGE...AND THE 250 WIND (EAST WEST)
COMPONENT NEVER STRAYS THAT MUCH FROM NORMAL. THE 03Z SREFS AVERAGE
ABOUT 1.5 INCHES FOR ALBANY...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS AROUND 3.5
INCHES. THE 00Z GEFS WERE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER...AVERAGING AROUND 3
INCHES WITH MEMBERS AS HIGH AS 4 INCHES AND THE LOWEST VALUES AROUND
1.3 INCHES.

FOR NOW OUR QPF WAS BLEND OF THE GEFS/SREF. MORE ABOUT THE QPF CAN
BE FOUND IN OUR HYDROLOGY SECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE WAVE AND HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL HAVE ALREADY
CLEARED THE REGION BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...WE CAN STILL EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 40 TO 50
PERCENT TUESDAY MORNING...DECREASING TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT WITH TEMPS
GRADUALLY RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 40 TO 50.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY
AND TONIGHT. IT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH KGFL BEFORE THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z SUNDAY...BUT REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
KALB/KPOU/KPSF.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY WITH MAINLY MID/HI CLOUDS AND SCT CUMULUS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE A MVFR STRATUS DECK
WAS OVER KPOU AS OF 630 AM. THIS STRATUS DECK SHOULD MIX OUT BY
AROUND 14Z.

SHOWERS WILL BE ADVANCING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...AND HAVE
PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF AFTER 21Z...AND INCLUDED
A PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
30/21Z- 22Z AND 31/03Z-04Z. AT KPOU THE VCSH STARTS AT 23Z WITH
THE PROB30 GROUP FROM 30/23Z TO 31/05Z. AFTER THE THREAT OF
TSTMS...HAVE FORECAST CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z AS A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN.
BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z...VSBYS SHOULD LOWER EVEN FURTHER...WITH CIGS
LOWERING INTO THE IFR RANGE AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY...REACHING SPEEDS OF 10
TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BY MIDNIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10
KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 15 KTS AT KALB. AT KGFL...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AROUND 09Z AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS WILL START OFF WITH HIGH RH VALUES TODAY...IN THE 75-90
PERCENT RANGE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS.
THE MOST NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...LESS NUMEROUS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF A SOAKING RAIN IS LIKELY HAPPEN TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WHILE IT NOT BE RAINING ALL OF THIS
TIME...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.
IT IS ALMOST A CERTAINTY EVERYONE WILL END UP WITH WELL OVER A
QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL...MOST AREAS LIKELY RECEIVING AROUND TWO
INCHES OF RAINFALL.

DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE RAINS
ARE REPLACED BY DRIER AND EVENTUALLY A RETURNS TO WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE BOUNDARY SLOWING ITS PROGRESS ACROSS
THE REGION AND RESULTING IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME...A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HAVE ADDED MENTION TO
OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THAT IF THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THIS WILL LIKELY BE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL SINCE MUCH OF OUR
REGION HAS ONLY SEEN ABOUT HALF ITS NORMAL RAINFALL SO FAR THIS
YEAR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV


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