Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
FXUS61 KALY 260441
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1241 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
High pressure will build into the region through Wednesday. The
weather will be dry and chilly, with temperatures below normal.
The high pressure will exit the region on Thursday as an area of
low pressure approaches the region from the west. Ahead of the low
pressure system...precipitation will overspread the region from
west to east during the day on Thursday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1240 AM EDT, low clouds are persisting across portions of
the southern Adirondacks, eastern Catskills, and higher terrain of
southern VT/NW MA. These clouds extend into the mid Hudson Valley
region as well.
Meanwhile, breaks in the clouds have developed within the
remainder of the Hudson River Valley from Glens Falls south.
Temperatures across the region are not falling off that much so
far, generally remaining in the mid/upper 30s in valley areas, and
lower 30s across higher elevations.
We do expect the clouds across the mid Hudson Valley to shift
southward over the next 1-2 hours with clearing thereafter.
Occasional fragments of clouds may still affect portions of the
Hudson River valley, especially closer to daybreak, otherwise
clear to partly cloudy skies expected through daybreak. The clouds
across the southwest Adirondacks, eastern Catskills, and southern
VT/NW MA will likely persist through daybreak. Expect low
temperatures to range from the upper 20s to lower 30s, although
colder mins could occur in localized areas where pockets of
decoupling develop before daybreak.
Wednesday...High pressure will build into the region during the
day on Wednesday. However, lingering moisture trapped beneath a
strong subsidence inversion will likely keep plenty of clouds
around into at least mid afternoon for areas north of I-90 and
southern VT/NW MA. It will be dry but chilly with highs in the
upper 30s to lower 40s across the higher elevation areas to the
mid 40s across the valley locations.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wednesday night...A low pressure system will approach the region
from the west. With clear skies for the first half of the
night...lows will be chilly in the mid to upper 20s.
Thursday...A low pressure system will approach the region. Ahead
of the system...precipitation will start to overspread the region
from west to east in the morning to early afternoon. Latest model
guidance has the system a bit slower than earlier runs. With the
slowdown in timing....the bulk of the precipitation will not reach
the region until late Thursday morning. With the change in
timing...surface temperatures should warm up enough to allow much
of the precipitation to fall as rain. However...as the system
enters in the Adirondacks and Schoharie valley...it may start out
as a period of Snow...then mixing with rain. Timing is going to
be critical for Thursday. Areas across Southern vermont could see
snow mixed in as well. At this time...potential advisory areas
where 3-6 inches of snow may be possible are the Adirondacks and
maybe portions of Southern Vermont. By thursday night...some areas
may see a mix of rain and snow. Again timing will be key.
Friday...The area of low pressure continues to move north and
east. With this track...areas from the Greater Capital Region
northward may see a chance of showers. However...the showers will
be light. Highs on Friday will continue to be a few degrees below
normal due to clouds and air mass. Friday night lows will drop
into the upper 20s across the Adirondacks...Southern Vermont and
the Catskills. The remainder of the area should see lows in the
low to mid 30s.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The nearly zonal quick upper flow pattern is difficult to resolve
in various set of long range guidance. The only semblance of
agreement in sets of guidance is a brief period of dry weather
Friday night perhaps into early Saturday. After that, there are
considerable differences in timing and track of quick moving upper
systems Saturday through Monday.
Because of the considerable disagreements, have indicated isolated
to scattered showers and snow showers the entire period Saturday
through Sunday night, which is a bit deceiving because it will not
be cloudy and showery/snow showery the entire time but determining
the time windows of dry weather that far into the future is difficult
The better coverage of showers and/or snow showers during the period
would be north of the Mohawk Valley into southern VT, where again,
scattered coverage is indicated. In southern areas, suggesting
intervals of clouds with more isolated activity. There could be some
lake effect influence areas north of the Mohawk Valley as well with
west boundary layer flow. Any snow showers would be during the
Highs Saturday in the lower to mid 50s but mid to upper 40s in
higher terrain. Highs Sunday, with possibly a little better warm
advection proximate to upper energy tracking through the region, in
the mid to upper 50s but mid 40s to around 50 higher terrain. If
upper energy tracks as far north as some guidance suggests,
temperatures could get well into the 60s but very high level of
Any lingering showers or snow showers likely end Sunday night. There
are disagreements in guidance even in the Monday through Tuesday
time frame. Just keeping a dry forecast in the 6-7 day time frame
until evolution becomes clearer and guidance comes to a better
consensus. Highs Monday in the Lower to mid 50s but mid to upper 40s
higher terrain. Highs Tuesday in the mid to upper 50s but lower 50s
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
It will be brisk with intervals clouds through tonight. High
pressure will build in Wednesday across eastern NY and western
VFR conditions are expected to prevail the next 24 hours ending
00Z/THU for KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU. In the broad cyclonic flow
expect mainly BKN-OVC conditions with stratocumulus clouds in the
4.5-6.0 kft AGL through this evening, then the clouds will
gradually thin shortly before or just after midnight. Overnight,
few-sct clouds will prevail with decreasing winds.
More sun than clouds is expected late Wednesday morning into the
afternoon with few to scattered stratocumulus around 5 kft AGL.
Northwest to north winds of 10-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts will
diminish to less than 10 kts after midnight, and may completely
decouple at KPOU/KGFL to 5 kts or less. The winds will increase
from the north to northwest around 10 kts late Wednesday morning,
continuing through the afternoon.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
High pressure will build into the region on Wednesday. Before the
high builds in...it will remain chilly and brisk tonight. The high
pressure will keep the weather dry but chilly on Wednesday. This
will be short lived as low pressure system approaches the region
from the west on Thursday.
With the precipitation we had last weekend and three quarters of
an inch to an inch on Thursday forecasted...no major fire weather
issues are anticipated.
There will be a few showers south and west of the Greater Capital
region this evening. These showers will be light...only producing
a few hundredths at most.
Widespread precipitation is expected during the day on Thursday.
With a cold start to the morning on Thursday...areas west of the
Hudson Valley and the higher elevations could see a period of
snow before going over to or mixing with rain. BY Thursday
afternoon...rain will be over much of the area...with snow mixing
in across the Adirondack region. At this time...model guidance
looks to bring the precipitation in bit later. This would mean
much of the area would see rain with the exception of the
Adirondacks and the higher elevation areas in southern vermont.
Forecast precipitation totals will generally be from three
quarters of an inch to an inch through Friday.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our