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000
FXUS61 KALY 151935
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
335 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FOR TONIGHT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION USHERING IN
MUCH COLDER AIR. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY WHERE UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE DECREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION DEEPENS THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. WINDS SHOULD BE QUITE BREEZY...AND THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
LATE SUNDAY ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S
WITH HIGHS AROUND 30 NEAR POUGHKEEPSIE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO 10 ABOVE
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE
FROM 5 BELOW NORTHWEST TO 15 ABOVE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR...TO PERHAPS A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL LEVELS FOR MID MARCH...AND PRECIPITATION NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO TURN TO A WARMER SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
REGION. ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE MAY ALSO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO
THE REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA...THE SYSTEM/S
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME SNOWFLAKES
POSSIBLY MIXING IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE VALLEYS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...BUT WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME LAKE/
OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...OR PERHAPS A WINTRY MIX TO
THE REGION NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH MORE RAIN SHOULD
THE SYSTEM TRACK TO THE NORTH...AND MORE OF A SNOW/WINTRY MIX IF IT
TRACKS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS STILL
YET TO PASS. CLOUDS...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 20Z AS THIS FEATURE
PASSES. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...BUT
WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THE TAF STIES.

SO...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z/SAT.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-20
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 25-30 POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF.
WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AFTER SUNSET...AT
GENERALLY 8-12 KT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
SUNDAY...AND INCREASE TO 10-20 KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30
KT DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING.

SUN NT-TUE NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

THE COMBINATION OF LITTLE SNOWMELT... AND LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD NOT
PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS...AND SHOULD
ALSO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FURTHER LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE
BREAKUP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS