Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 051044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY
AS WELL. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...OVERCAST SKIES BUT DRY WEATHER OCCURRING EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. TODAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER COOL AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...AS WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME. VERY LIMITED
FORCING TODAY...AS THE CORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW WILL
TRACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH LESS COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE TIME. WITH A CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ONCE
AGAIN WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS EVENING SHOULD START OUT MAINLY DRY BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY...AS THE
CORE OF THE CUT-OFF LOW REMAINS WELL SOUTH NEAR THE VIRGINIA/N.
CAROLINA BORDER. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE STARTING TO TRACK
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST...AND IS FORECAST TO SPAWN A SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE DELMARVA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ASCENT DUE TO CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION...WILL LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR AREAS FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTHWARD. AS WITH MANY CUT-OFF LOWS...MODELS ARE NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF QPF SO WILL TRY AND
TREND POPS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

RAIN WILL BE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME AS PIECES OF
ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE CUT-OFF LOW RESULTING IN WAVES OR BATCH OF
RAIN. SHOWALTER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
ZERO ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. TEMPS SHOULD END UP
BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY...BUT NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER DUE TO SLOWER ONSET AND LESS COVERAGE OF RAIN.

RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE CUT-OFF LOW...WHICH IS FORECAST TO STALL NEAR
THE MASON-DIXON LINE. WITH THE LOW GRADUALLY FILLING
OVERNIGHT...CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE AS WELL. WITH MODERATE
850 MB WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 30-35 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENT...UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH...ALTHOUGH
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...AS THE CUT-OFF LOW WEAKENS IN PLACE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...WE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME. SO WHILE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE LOOK POSSIBLE AT LEAST
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WESTWARD...MUCH OF THE DAY COULD END UP
MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS THE LOW FINALLY STARTS TO PULL
AWAY. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN PLACE AND SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AT LEAST MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS MONTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAD BEEN PLAGUING THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
OPEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT IT WILL THEN BECOME
CONSOLIDATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS NEAR HUDSON`S BAY
AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW IT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DRIVING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THIS SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH AND CROSS THE
REGION. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME STRONGER LOW TOPPED CONVECTION
TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD CONTAIN STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE BRISK AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOPED.

HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS SOME RIDGING
BUILDS IN ALONG WITH SOME RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS OUR ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. DEEP
SOUTHWESTERN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE RIDGE IS
SUPPRESSEDOFFSHORE AND A TROUGH APPROACHES. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING WELL EASTWARD FROM A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
BE ON THE APPROACH. IN ADDITION...THE HUDSON`S BAY UPPER LOW WILL
BE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AS SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE ABOUT IT
AND PIECES OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL BE FLYING THROUGH THE
FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR
MORE RAIN THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

INITIALLY WE WILL HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH SEASONABLY WARM VALUES FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST OVER THE OHIO/TONNESVALLEYS
WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...12Z/FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERCAST SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS/CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO WIDESPREAD
VFR. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO WIDESPREAD TO MVFR.

LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-FRI NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SAT-SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY AS
WELL. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE 55 TO 70
PERCENT...INCREASING TO MAXIMUM VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.
RH VALUES ON FRIDAY WILL DROP TO AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS NORTHERN
TO AROUND 70 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WINDS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER.

TOTAL QPF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND A QUARTER INCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE HSA...WITH ONE HALF TO ONE INCH FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. WITH VEGETATION STILL IN THE PROCESS OF
GREENING UP...THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. RIVER LEVELS EXPECTED TO ONLY EXPERIENCE MINOR
RISES.

AFTER SOME MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
IS FORECAST WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV



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