Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 261511

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1011 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

A colder and more seasonable air mass for late February will be
over the region today with blustery conditions and isolated to
scattered snow showers mainly north and west of the Capital Region.
High pressure will briefly build in from the mid Atlantic Region
tonight into Monday with moderating temperatures back to above
normal readings.  The next chance of rain and snow showers will be
Monday night into Tuesday with a warm front and low pressure moving
into the Midwest.


A Flood Watch remains in effect for the western Mohawk Valley,
the upper Hudson Region, the southern Adirondacks, Lake George
Saratoga region and southern Vermont until 7 pm today. See the
Hydrology section for details...

As of 1011 AM EST, Fragmented lake effect snow bands still
affect parts of the area, although they have shifted southward
across mainly Schoharie county and into the northern Catskills
due to the flow becoming more northwesterly. Lighter isolated to
scattered snow showers moving across parts of the Helderbergs.
Additional light snow accums are possible ranging from a few
tenths of an inch to an inch or so. Farther east...the Capital
Region...and northern Taconics/Berkshires will have little or no
accums with perhaps some dustings. The westerly upslope region
of the southern Greens may get a dusting to a half an inch
including Bennington, VT.

Otherwise, in the strong cold advection in the wake of the
strong cold front yesterday, and this secondary front, expect
H850 temps to lower to -10C to -13C. It will be blustery and
cold with W/NW winds of 15 to 25 mph with some gusts in the
30-40 mph range. The strongest winds will be across the Mohawk
Valley/eastern Catskills/Great Capital Region/n-cntrl Taconics
and Berkshires due to funneling down the Mohawk Valley and
deeper mixing to 2-3+ kft AGL based on the momentum transfer
profiles from the NAM/GFS in BUFKIT. It will be partly sunny by
the late morning into the afternoon from the Hudson River Valley
eastward, with more clouds than sun further west. The
turbulent boundary layer, directional shear and short-wave will
disrupt the lake bands, and we may actually see narrow multi-
bands impact locations west of our forecast area, as the
boundary layer flow initially veers late today based on the 3-km

Highs today will range from the upper 20s to mid 30s over the
mountains, and mid 30s to lower 40s in the valleys and across
the hills which is normal to slightly above normal for FEB.

Flood warnings continue in portions of the west-central Mohawk
Valley, southern Adirondacks, and the Upper Hudson Region.


Tonight...High pressure ridges in from the Carolinas. The low-
level flow begins to back. A few lake effect snow
showers/flurries may clip the western Adirondacks early on.
Otherwise, we are expecting a quiet night with clearing skies
especially from the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region south and east.
The mid and upper level flow becomes zonal with heights rising.
Lows will be on the cold side with diminishing winds. Low to
mid 20s will be common over the most of the region, except for
some teens over the southern Adirondack park, southern Greens,
Berkshires, and parts of the Lake George Glens Falls area, and
the eastern Catskills.

Monday...Flat mid and upper level ridging will be building in
from off the NJ and New England Coast. A weak northern stream
disturbance will be moving north of the ST Lawrence River Valley
across southern Quebec and northern New England. Most of the
region should have a quiet day except for isolated to scattered
snow showers near the western Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley
in the morning with little or no accums. Low level warm
advection will be ongoing in the boundary layer with temps at
H850 getting back to -2C to -6C. High temps get back above
normal by around 10 degrees or so with upper 40s to lower 50s in
the valley areas and across the southern Taconics and NW CT.
Upper 30s to mid and upper 40s will be common across the hills
and mountains. The winds will increase from the west to
southwest at 10-20 mph with some gusts around 30-35 mph.

Mon night into Tuesday....Some timing differences between the
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEFS on the onset of warm advection pcpn ahead of
a warm front approaching from the south and west associated
with low pressure developing in the central MS River Valley and
moving into the Midwest by Tuesday. Clouds should be thickening
and lowering Mon night with a slight chc of light rain/snow
showers for portions of the region. Temps may fall off early
around midnight and slowly rise from mid 20s and lower/mid 30s.
The warm front begins to push north/northeast from PA and NJ
during the day for an increase chance of showers due to the
isentropic lift. High chc pops were used and we blended the
NAM/GFS/ECMWF for the timing. Highs temps will be in the 40s to
some lower 50s over the Capital District, mid Hudson Valley and
NW CT. These temps will still be mild for the last day of Feb


Active weather will persist through much of the long term period,
with a transition from zonal flow to a broad trough at upper levels,
and much colder temperatures by weeks` end.

The region will be under the influence of strong southerly flow and
ridging Tuesday night/Wednesday due to a warm front lifting through
Tuesday afternoon and a trough deepening in the plains. This frontal
passage will bring some rain showers to the region Tuesday night as
temperatures remain near steady or even warm throughout the night.
Within the warm sector, temperatures are expected to rise into the
50s/lower 60s Wednesday afternoon. Strong WAA and deep moisture
(PWATS around 1 inch), combined with passing embedded mid/upper
level waves will all contribute to periods of rain showers during
this time. The latest GEFS ensemble mean shows PWATS on Wednesday
are 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal which means there is the
potential for heavy rainfall. There should also be enough
instability present to trigger a few thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon with the cold frontal passage.

Behind the front, we will transition to a much colder air mass
Wednesday night/Thursday. Temperatures are expected to fall through
the day Thursday with the high temperature likely occurring at
midnight. Temperatures will start out in the 40s and 50s but fall
into the low teens to low 20s by Thursday night. 700 mb temperatures
from the latest GEFS are 2 to 3 standard deviations below normal for
the beginning of March. That being said, as cold air invades the
region behind the front, any lingering rainfall is expected to
change over to snow on Thursday, with perhaps up to a couple inches
of snow accumulation in the Adirondacks.

Another low pressure system skirts by the region to the south on
Friday with a slight chance for rain/snow showers. Temperatures will
be seasonable with afternoon highs reading the low 20s in the high
terrain and the mid to upper 30s across the valley locations. The
core of the upper trough will be over the Capital District Friday
night where we could see temperatures plummet to near zero in the
Adirondacks and into the single digits/teens elsewhere. Brisk winds
could lead to wind chills dropping into the -10 to -20 degree range
across the southern Adirondacks.

Lake effect snow could be possible on Friday night/Saturday for the
areas downwind of Lake Ontario as cold westerly/northwesterly flow


Scattered snow showers are possible this morning across the area but
should have minimal impact, if any, at the TAF sites. Conditions are
expected to remain VFR through the forecast period. Main concern
today are the winds. Winds from the west/northwest will be gusty
through this afternoon with gusts up to 35 kts possible. Winds are
then expected to slacken after sunset.


Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Chance of RA...SN.


Flood Watch in effect for the western Mohawk Valley, the upper
Hudson, the southern Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga region and
southern Vermont until 7 pm today. Runoff will result from a
combination of snow melt over the past few days and heavy
rainfall yesterday from showers and thunderstorms. Total
rainfall ranged from a half an inch to an inch and a half across
the hydro service area.

All existing flood warning have been cancelled as of late this
morning. We continue to monitor for additional flooding in
these areas this morning. Significant within bank rises of 1 to
4 feet occurred in the flood watch area at some points. The
sharpest rises were on the small streams. Generally, rises were
a foot or less outside the flood watch.

Drier and much colder air continues to filter in across the HSA
this morning with some lake effect snow showers across the
western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley. Strong west to
northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with stronger gusts will also
slow down the runoff late today.

The next chance of widespread rainfall will be Tuesday into

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.


A daily record high temperatures was set yesterday at Albany
with 70 degrees breaking the old record of 67 degrees set in
1976.  Glens Falls reached their daily and monthly records
yesterday with 70 degrees. The old daily record for Feb 25th was
smashed, as it was 58 degrees set in 1984.


NY...Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ032-033-038>043-
VT...Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ013>015.


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