Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 190553
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1253 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING
SOUTHWARD AROUND THIS DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD DEVELOP
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SOUTHEAST CANADA MAY BRING SOME CLEARING FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE OCCLUDED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
AS PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. ONE SHORT WAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
HARD TO SEE ON THE UPSTREAM RADARS. HOWEVER SOME STATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK HAVE REPORTED SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AND VERY
LIGHT SNOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS OCCURRING ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...HELDERBERGS AND EAST CENTRAL
CATSKILLS. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS
CHANCE FOR PATCHES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL REDUCED THE CHANCES WHILE DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE ERN DACKS AND CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE MAINLY COLD...BRISK
AND DRY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH...AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN VALLEY TO THE N AND W. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S...WITH SOME TEENS
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...ESP WITHIN THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME
GUSTS OF UP TO...OR A BIT OVER 30 MPH MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...YET AGAIN...CLOUDS MAY WIN OUT...ESP FROM ALBANY AND
POINTS N AND W. A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SETTLE SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS AND SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...ESP
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SETTLE
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...BUT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST AREAS...AS THE INVERSION LEVEL LOWERS
IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...AND INITIALLY TRAPS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN
APPEAR TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...AGAIN MAINLY LATER IN THE DAY.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID
30S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME
TEMPS MAY EVEN FALL A BIT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
SHALLOW...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS...BEFORE HOLDING
STEADY OR RISING SLIGHTLY AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD SEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HAVE INDICATED GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM N TO S FRI NT...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR SAT
MORNING. BY SAT AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM THE S AND E...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. FRI NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S IN MOST
VALLEYS...WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

SAT NT...AS A SFC HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SE CANADA...A LIGHT
SE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INCREASING.
ALSO...AS THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE ASCENDING
TERRAIN...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS COULD
DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY LATE AT NIGHT...ESP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SE CATSKILLS.
SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S WITH TEENS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN COLDER MINS COULD OCCUR IF
CLOUDS ARRIVE MORE SLOWLY THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS
IMPACTING ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE EARLY TO MID PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES...GFS...ECMWF...CANADIAN AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM QUEBEC.  SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN GREENS...TACONICS...AND
BERKSHIRES.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE -5C TO -7C RANGE.  TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE DEC WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M30S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SFC
HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING
OVER THE NRN-CNTRL PLAINS WITH A DEVELOPING UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A COLD AND DRY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH
LATE.  LOWS WILL BEN IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACK
PARK...AND SRN GREENS.  BY MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS N/NE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CONUS.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE DAY...AND
SOME OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL COMMENCE BY THE  AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE COLUMN WILL BE QUITE DRY TO
START...SO A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN IS POSSIBLE.  THE BETTER
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SFC DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL AT NIGHT
ACCORDING TO GFS/ECMWF/GEFS.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF AND CAN GGEM WITH THE ONSET OF THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN.  HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM U20S TO M30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT TO MID 30S TO L40S SOUTH AND EAST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE BETTER QG LIFT DUE TO THE WARM
ADVECTION IMPACTS THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  SNOW AND RAIN MAY
TRANSITION TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX...AS THE WEDGE OF SUBFREEZING AREA
BELOW H850 ERODES.  THE COASTAL LOW DOES NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND WITH A PRIMARY LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY.  THE SFC WAVE MOVES FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM...AND ANY LIGHT MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN BY THE LATE MORNING.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE THE MID 20S OVER THE DACKS TO LOWER TO
MID 30S FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH AND EAST.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M30S TO L40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS... THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH REVS UP AND
TURNS NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT. SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HELPS ANOTHER SFC CYCLONE FORM OVER THE
CAROLINAS TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAYBE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN BEFORE
THIS NEXT WAVE RACES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.  AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SETS UP OVER THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE
COASTAL WAVE LOOKS TO TAKE AN INLAND TRACK ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO
FLOOD INTO MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  STRONG QG OMEGA
OCCURS DUE TO STRONG CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE INTENSIFYING AND
DEEPENING WAVE...AS IT MOVES TOWARDS NYC BY WED AFTERNOON.  THE H850
WINDS INCREASE TO 35-50+ KTS FROM THE E/SE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  IT
COULD BE QUITE WINDY...AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS POTENTIALLY TO 975 HPA
OR BY EARLY WED EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM THEN HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND COULD EVEN FORM...IF THE
WAVE TRACKS ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
THE GEFS MEAN HAS THE WAVE AS FAR WEST AT THE KBUF-KROC CORRIDOR.
PERIODS OF RAIN... POSSIBLY HEAVY COULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT IF THE
TRACK IS FURTHER EAST IT COULD BE SNOW AND RAIN FOR A LARGER POTION
OF THE AREA.  HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
M40S TO L50S SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPITAL REGION...AND U30S TO L40S.
CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS THE STORM DEEPENS POTENTIALLY TO BELOW
970 HPA OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC.  MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE REGION.  ANY ACCUMS LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS...BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO GET
INTO EXACT SNOW ACCUMS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S CHRISTMAS
EVE...AND 30S TO L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION OVER
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS KEEPING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT AROUND
3500-4500 FT FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS. CLOUDS UPSLOPING THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE BERKSHIRES IS KEEPING MVFR CIGS OF 1500 FT AT KPSF.

ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THESE
LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE. CIGS MAY EVEN LOWER FOR THE
VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CIGS OF 2000-3000 FT IN PLACE TOWARDS
SUNRISE. AT THIS POINT...THEY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE IFR
THRESHOLDS...AND NO PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR.

THESE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR CIGS FOR THE VALLEY SITES IN THE
AFTN...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS TO LOWER
BACK DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES...ESP
FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT SIMILAR SPEEDS FOR DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY...BEFORE LOWERING TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL






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