Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 311754
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
154 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over southeast Canada will remain in control into
Thursday with fair and mild conditions and comfortable humidity
levels. An approaching cold front will bring a threat of showers
and thunderstorms from late in the day Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 110 PM EDT, skies remain mostly sunny across the
region...with just some cumulus clouds developing across portions
of the western Adirondacks and eastern Catskills.

A strong shortwave was seen on WV satellite imagery traversing
eastern Quebec. A weak secondary cold front was trailing southwest
from this disturbance, with cooler and even less humid air in its
wake.

For the remainder of this afternoon, mostly sunny skies should
continue, with the exception of some patchy clouds across the
western Adirondacks with the approach of secondary front. Ahead of
this boundary, west to northwest winds will increase, with speeds
of 10-15 mph, and some gusts up to 25 mph, if not slightly
stronger.

Will have to watch radar trends in case isolated showers or
sprinkles develop along the front across the western Adirondacks
later this afternoon.

High temperatures should reach the lower/mid 80s in valley areas,
and mid 70s to around 80 across higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The ridge of high pressure will dominate our weather through the
mid week period as it moves across our region and eventually
slides eastward off the New England coast. Expect generally clear
to partly cloudy skies through Thursday morning with increasing
clouds Thursday afternoon. A cold front will approach from the
eastern Great Lakes Thursday night bringing the chance for showers
and thunderstorms Thursday evening as Showalter indices approach
zero with showers becoming more numerous during the second half of
Thursday night.

Lows tonight are expected to be in the upper 40s to upper 50s with
highs on Wednesday in the 70s to lower 80s. Lowered mins a few
degrees tonight to collaborate better with neighboring offices. Lows
Wednesday night are expected to be in the upper 40s to mid 50s
with Highs on Thursday in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Lows Thursday
night will be in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Trend toward an unsettled pattern into the weekend and early next
week as upper trough re-establishes itself across the Great Lakes
and northeast corridor.

We begin this long term with the passage of a cold front Friday with
a round of showers.  At this time, instability parameters look less
than ideal for most of the region to preclude the mention of thunder
at this time.  Clouds and the showers should limit temperatures too
with mainly U60s to L70s for the region.

A brief period of tranquil and near seasonable temperatures are
expected Friday night into Saturday as a weak yet progressive
surface high and short wave ridge moves across.  So we will keep the
weather dry under partly cloudy conditions.

Latest NCEP model suite and international guidance point toward
increasing amplification of the upper pattern as a strong upper
impulse from Alberta dives southeast toward the Great Lakes region.
In turn this will aid in the entrainment of sub-tropical moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico into the mid-Atlantic and northeast.  So
increasing clouds Saturday night with increasing PoPs overnight into
Sunday.  This will keep temperatures below normal with the potential
for above normal but needed rainfall for the region.

Rather excellent agreement among the models heading into Monday as
the main moisture advection transverses offshore but leaving behind
a cool and relatively moist cyclonic flow to keep the low chance
PoPs in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A ridge at the sfc and aloft will build in from the Great Lakes
Region late tonight into Wednesday with VFR conditions prevailing
at KPOU/KPSF/KALB/KGFL the next 24 hours ending 18Z/WED.

A weak cold front will drift through the region tonight with a
few-sct clouds. These will generally be high clouds especially
south and east of KALB.

The winds this afternoon will be from the W to NW at 10-18 kts
with some gusts around 25 kts at KALB/KPSF. The winds will
lighten from the N to NW at 4-8 kts by 00Z/WED...and will become
light to calm shortly before or just after midnight. The winds
will generally be light and variable in direction in the late
morning into the early afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cooler and drier air mass will be ushered into our region
today. High pressure over southeast Canada will remain in control
into Thursday with dry conditions and comfortable humidity levels.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 50 percent this
afternoon, recover to 75 to 90 percent tonight, and drop to 30 to
45 percent on Wednesday.

Winds will be north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to
25 mph today, light and variable tonight, and east to northeast
around 5 mph on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
High pressure will build into our region with dry weather
continuing through the middle of the week. The next chance for
showers will return late in the week as a frontal boundary
approaches.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...SND/KL/11
SHORT TERM...SND/11
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV



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