Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 131130 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
530 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

North winds will pick up to around 20 knots with higher gusts
behind a cold front which will move through by late this morning.
Winds will remain northerly tonight, but they will decrease to
around 10 knots or less. Skies are expected to remain VFR.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 250 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017/

Not too much derivation from the previous forecast. Winds today
will shift from southwesterly to more northerly as we approach
the late morning into early afternoon starting in northern areas
working south in association with a cold front moving through the
region. Winds behind the front will be sustained between 15-20
kts with some gusts up to 30 kts at times, especially in the early
to mid afternoon hours. Winds will diminish as we go past 00Z
Thursday as clouds will build south in the wake of the cold front.
High temperatures should reach well into the 60s for most areas
today, especially ahead of the front in the SW surface flow.

Latest 13/00Z model and probabilistic guidance along with hi-res
data continue to show a slowly decaying Rex Block with the main
upper level ridge shifting further west with its axis along the
CONUS Pacific coastline by Thursday morning. As it does so, a
localized vort max from BC/Alberta will work its way south across
the Rockies downstream of the building west coast ridge early
Thursday. However, like most low pressure impulses most of this
Autumn season, moisture will continue to be a limiting factor.
Latest numerical guidance has some agreement to showing some mid
level moisture helping to perhaps moisten up the lower levels of
the atmosphere. In-conjunction with forcing within the
disturbance, this may bring an isolated chance of seeing a
scattered snow or rain/snow shower as we go into Thursday
morning. Right along the forcing in the far northwestern areas
will be the best chances of seeing precipitation. Temperatures
behind the front will drop high temperatures to near to slightly
below average.

Going forward through the remainder of the forecast, dry
conditions continue to dominate. A second cold front will move
through the Panhandles during the first half of Sunday bringing a
temporary cool down to the second half of the weekend. Otherwise
temperatures will be generally above normal as we continue into
mid December.


Elevated fire weather conditions are possible today, especially as
we head into the early afternoon hours. As a cold front moves
through the region, behind the front, a very dry airmass with RH
values in the 15-20% range will spread across the Panhandles.
Early into mid afternoon, 20 ft. winds will be sustained around
15-20 kts. for most of the Panhandles which will aid to the
elevated risk across the region. As clouds build in later this
afternoon into evening hours, RH values will rise above threshold
and winds aloft and at the surface will diminish under 10 kts
diminishing the fire wx risk. Going forward into Saturday will be
our next chance of elevated fire weather conditions as a warm dry
SW wind gets established across the region with low RH values
at or below 20% with a cold front bringing a wind shift in the
afternoon and evening. No elevated or critical fire weather
conditions are expected Sunday and Monday as relative humidities
remaining above necessary thresholds.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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