Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 271146 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
546 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT THE AERODROMES WITH
CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 1200 FEET. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BREEZY
LEVELS TODAY WITH CLOUD DECKS RISING TO VFR LEVELS. THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
RAIN WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED
AFTER A VERY BRIEF LAYING OF THE WINDS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
MVFR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLY BEING A COUPLE
OF HUNDRED FEET HIGHER OR LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE NOW IN
EFFECT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH ONLY
PATCHY FOG NOTED AT A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS. THE MOST RECENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS PEGGED A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR SHERMAN TO DEL RIO ACROSS THE
LONE STAR STATE.

TODAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
RAIN SHOULD BECOME MORE PREVALENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AIDED
BY A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVERHEAD IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE AND A STEADILY MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE COURTESY OF AN
INITIAL ONSHORE MODERATE FLOW. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING SO LATE
IN THE DAY...FELT COMFORTABLE LEAVING HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. WITH THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST 500 MB FLOW OVERHEAD
PERSISTING...AND THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
TEXAS BIG BEND...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE
BRO CWFA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 69C/HIGHWAY
281 CORRIDOR. OVERCAST SKIES AND DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S...THE COLDEST IN RECENT DAYS.

SUNDAY...AXIS OF THE 500 MB TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...ENDING RAINFALL
FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT NOT BEFORE ALLOWING GENERALLY SCATTERED
RAINFALL IN THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ARE FORECAST...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...OR JUST ABOUT RIGHT...GIVEN THE FACT
THAT CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MOST UNSURE THING ABOUT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND BRUSH COUNTRY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT TO VEER TO THE EAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING SOME GULF MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY LATE MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 60S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT RECOVERING INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THIS IS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY.

THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...AROUND
1050 MB...SURGES SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
AND THEN CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING EAST NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. CLOUDY SKIES WITH A CHANCE OF OVERRUNNING
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO THE MID 50S ALONG
THE COAST. MODERATE TO BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS MAY  PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TUESDAY
NIGHT.

OVERRUNNING RAIN...CLOUDY SKIES AND MODERATE NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP
THE REGION RATHER CHILLY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS AND BRUSH
COUNTRY TO THE 50S NEAR THE COAST. OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...
CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR NEW YEARS EVE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. A COASTAL TROUGH OR WEAK
SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST DAY OF 2015
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES...COOL TEMPERATURES AND
OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEW YEARS DAY WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO HOW CLOSE THE
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. RAIN CHANCES
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH CLEARING
SKIES BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 14 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 18 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY
OVER 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS AT 03 CST/09 UTC. MODERATE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY...AND
SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TONIGHT...REQUIRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS ARE THEN LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS
SUNDAY EVENING WILL QUICKLY DECREASE BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS MONDAY MORNING WILL BECOME EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO BREEZY EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR VERY LIKELY LATE TUESDAY AS
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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