Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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514
FXUS64 KBRO 102342 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
542 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE
AREA EVEN AS AN ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT
AS A RESULT. SHALLOW PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE THURS NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES AT THE SURFACE AND LIGHTER
WINDS PREVAIL AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHILE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD KEEPING DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. COLD FRONT WILL DIG
SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT REMAIN TOWARDS MOST OF THE
EAST PORTION OF THE CONUS KEEPING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SATURDAY WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. INTO SUNDAY
THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A BIT MORE AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SOUTH OF WEST TEXAS STRENGTHENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES INCREASE SOUTHEAST
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOW`S WILL RANGED IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

AS TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST AMPLIFIED RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE U.S. BRINGING IN ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE CWA.
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PRODUCING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT MAINLY REMAIN OVER THE GULF
WATERS WITH SE FLOW. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE VERY
LIMITED WITH FROPA KEEPING THE CWA UNDER DRY CONDITIONS BY LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER A FEW DEGREES BUT
WILL BRING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HIGH PRES
WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AGAIN. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 1 FOOT
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 4 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. EXPECT MARGINAL SCEC CONDITIONS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST
THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX. MODERATE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THRUSDAY INTO
THURS NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER WEST TX AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
ARRIVING LATE MONDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF WATERS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE GULF LIMITING ANY RAINFALL CHANCES. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS PLEASANT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
SEAS.

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
LOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THURS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THURS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURS EVENING AS A RESULT OF THE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC
WILDFIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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