Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 250859
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
359 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...SHALLOW MOISTURE POOLING IN
ADVANCE OF A STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TO KEEP THE REGION
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP MIX OUT
THE SURFACE MOISTURE PROVIDING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES BUT REMAINS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE HOWEVER SOUTHEAST
BREEZES PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IF
CLOUDS CLEAR IN TIME WITH MID 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND LOW TO MID 90S OUT WEST. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES OVERALL
NEAR ZERO TODAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT WILL BE WATCHING A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO THIS MORNING AND
APPROACHING NORTHEAST MEXICO TONIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MAINTAIN AN
INFLECTION WITHIN THE 500-250MB PRESSURE FIELDS AND INDICATE SOME
QFP VALUES OVER THE SIERRA MADRE ACROSS NUEVO LEON BY 00Z SATURDAY.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE DRIFTING
SLOWLY EAST-NE BUT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES. ONE OR TWO CELLS STILL COULD
VENTURE CLOSE TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION LOW CHANCES FOR ZAPATA AND
WESTERN STARR AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES JUST IN CASE A ROUGE STORM
TRACKS ACROSS THE RIVER. OTHERWISE A MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST FLOW. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPERATURES RATHER BALMY.

SATURDAY THE MUCH ADVERTISED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INDUCING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO EXTEND SOUTH ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE SIERRA
MADRE WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE DAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS EAST OF HWY 69C EXPECTED AFTER NOON WITH
TEMPERATURES INCHING UPWARD A FEW MORE DEGREES AS SUN BREAKS THROUGH
THE MORNING CLOUDS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO WITH ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING NO RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS STABLE AND NO DISTURBANCES ARE SEEN AT THIS TIME MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED...WITH LOCAL WINDS ALOFT CONTINUING FORM THE SOUTHWEST.
AT THE SFC...THE DRYLINE WILL INTRUDE INTO THE WESTERN VALLEY ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR. WITH DRY AIR FROM THE SW
ALOFT...SKIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO
THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S. RECORD HIGHS ARE LIKELY NOT IN
JEOPARDY...THOUGH...AS APRIL 27 1984 WAS ONE OF THE WARMEST DAY ON
RECORD FOR THE VALLEY. MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR...WITH THE DRYLINE
INTRUDING INTO THE WESTERN VALLEY. WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT DRAWING
NORTHWARD...LOCAL MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL BE MORE FROM DUE
WEST...WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY LESSEN THE DESERT AIR IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH FINALLY STARTS TO ROTATE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PULL A DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WITH A BOUNDARY
IN THE VICINITY AND POSSIBLE SWLY IMPULSES ALOFT...THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE SHOT FOR RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SFC BOUNDARY STALLS
IN THE VICINITY FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...BUT WITHOUT SUPPORT
ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMIZED. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WILL DRAW TEMPS BACK INTO THE 90S...WHILE THE MODIFIED
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PULL TEMPS FURTHER BACK INTO THE 80S
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TO KEEP EASTERLY FLOW LIGHT TODAY. WINDS TO
SLOWLY VEER SOUTHEAST AND REMAINING LIGHT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. WINDS STRENGTHEN
ENOUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR A POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AS APPROACH SUNSET.


SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS AT LEAST 15 TO 20
KNOTS. THIS WILL KICK SEAS UP TO 6 FEET SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
CAUTION WILL BE ADVISED FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED...WITH ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE IF GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH. WINDS FINALLY RELAX BRIEFLY
ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT STALLS JUST TO THE NORTH AND KEEPS
GRADIENT WEAK. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL GET A PUSH INTO THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  84  72  87  75 /   0  10   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          86  72  88  76 /   0  10   0  10
HARLINGEN            89  71  91  75 /   0  10   0  10
MCALLEN              93  72  95  75 /   0  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      95  72  97  77 /   0  20   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  72  80  75 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

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