Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 272344
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
644 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.AVIATION...
Winds have begun to ease as a weak upper level ridge begins its
pass across West Texas keeping us in VFR through the forecast
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Current WV imagery shows the axis of the upper low currently
positioned overhead. This has allowed the dryline to push east of
the FA doing away with any convection concerns this evening and
tonight. Shortwave ridging will develop overnight just to our west
ahead of a deepening trof over the CA coast and will progress
towards the region through the day tomorrow. Surface high pressure
to our southeast will allow for winds to turn back to the
south/southeast which will bring GOMEX moisture back to the region
starting late tomorrow afternoon. The moisture won`t be in place
early enough to take advantage of a few possible disturbances moving
around the upper ridge tomorrow so the forecast will continue to be
free of mentionable PoPs. Aldrich

LONG TERM...
Gulf moisture begins to come back into the area Saturday night as
flow backs in response to the trough digging into the desert
southwest. We`ll probably see some low clouds and possibly some
showers develop early Sunday morning as the first impulse
downstream from the main trough nears West Texas. The moist
conditions/cloud cover may tend to reduce instability development
on Sunday, but if we do see at least partial clearing and temps
rising into the middle 80s as expected MLCAPES of 1500 to 2500
J/kg could be realized along with moderate deep-layer shear which
will bring a chance of severe storms, although perhaps more
isolated in coverage. Several models develop a t-storm complex in
the TX Panhandle late Sunday, which then rolls sewd through much
of our northern and eastern counties overnight and possibly into
the morning hours. Whether or not this comes to pass will likely
have some bearing on what happens on Memorial Day. The atmosphere
should remain quite moist, but there may be shortwave ridging
overhead and we could see some subsidence in the wake of the
complex. Once again, diurnal destabilization Monday could bring
another round of afternoon and evening t-storms, but shear should
be weaker and may not support much storm organization and severe
potential. The upper low/trough will edge closer to the area
Tuesday and we should see upper-level divergence and lift
increase. In addition, another upper low skimming the US/Canada
border will send a front into the area. This should be a favorable
set-up for widespread rain chances and perhaps some potential for
heavy rain. Questions include the timing of the front and the
degree of instability as cloud cover increases and temps cool. The
upper low is forecast to track slowly east across West Texas
Wednesday into Thursday. This will keep the weather cool and
unsettled. Cool North or NW flow aloft and surface ridging may
stay in place all the way to the weekend.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/55



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