Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 110434

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1034 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017


VFR will prevail through the period. Light westerly winds will
shift to the north-northwest behind a cold front early afternoon.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017/

Not much change from previous forecasts. We seem to be stuck in NW
flow with a Rex Block type pattern over the western Conus, and a
downstream trough across the east with periodic short waves
traversing through the NW flow. These disturbances are sending
weak cold fronts across our region every couple of days. The first
front will move across the area during the afternoon hours on
Monday. Some elevated fire weather is forecast from about 17z
through 22z (11 am until 4 pm). Higher risk farther north across
the Panhandle. Cooling around 5-10 degrees for Tuesday. Another
front late on Wednesday. Winds increase a little more on Friday
and that could lead to elevated fire weather possibly persisting
into Saturday. Some of the energy from the southern stream low
may get absorbed into the northern stream, but doesn`t look
favorable for precipitation over the upcoming weekend as W/NW
broad zonal flow pattern persists in slightly more progressive
pattern but still deep layer dry air across the region.

It is interesting that that the longer range GFS deterministic
runs have been showing a significant cool down for a few runs as
we get close to Christmas, so perhaps some arctic air in a couple
of weeks. Until then, pretty quiet for mid December.





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