Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 302327
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
627 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR with light winds through most of Friday, except at LBB where
SW winds of 15-20 knots are likely by midday. Moistening E winds
at CDS overnight could garner some TEMPO low vis there, but odds
are against this for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017/

SHORT TERM...
Quiet weather across the forecast area this afternoon and much
warmer compared to yesterday thanks to mostly clear skies and a
decent downslope wind, mainly across the southern third of the
forecast area.  The back door front that the 12-18Z HRRR and RAP
runs have continued to advertise has yet to materialize as surface
winds across the rolling plains have remained light and variable.
Models continue to insist that at some point tonight into the early
morning hours, a weak front will push west across the forecast area
resulting in an easterly wind through the night.  The ARW and GFS
however keep the front east of the Caprock and have a southwest wind
across the Caprock through the night.  Have opted to lean towards
the latter two models which means that we should see temps lean
towards the warmer guidance for locations on the Caprock thanks to
the west wind remaining in place.  Biggest question will be if low
clouds and/or fog will develop across the Rolling Plains if easterly
upslope surface flow can develop.  Models have been overestimating
the dewpoints early in the day but have gotten closer to
observations this afternoon so feel that the potential for fog and
low clouds is low but still non-zero.

Wind will start to veer back to the southwest for the Caprock by
sunrise but with uncertainty if the Rolling Plains will manage to
keep an easterly wind through the day.  Dry air does mix back into
the southwestern Plains to near I-27/edge of the Caprock by the
afternoon which will drop humidities and help boost high
temperatures.  There still is some fire weather concerns, see
discussion below.  Even with the uncertainty in how surface
conditions will evolve, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer
tomorrow than today as warmer air mixes in from the southwest.  Lee
trough will also strengthen through the day as flow aloft becomes
increasingly southeast ahead of the next storm system that moves
west from the Pacific Northwest tonight into tomorrow.

Jordan

LONG TERM...
Upper low currently over NV will push southeastward by early
Saturday. Models still can`t agree on the exact path of this low.
The GFS continues to favor a more northerly path swinging
northeastward across the OK Panhandle into KS with the ECMWF still
favoring a more southerly path across the Permian Basin into the Big
Country. The ECMWF has been more consistent run to run that the GFS
with the handling of the upper low in which the ECMWF will have more
of an impact on the forecast allowing for high PoP chances as we get
into the late weekend particularly across our eastern zones. With
either solution a front is expected to push through the FA by Sunday
and will cool highs down into the 60s. We will quickly warm back up
by Monday as skies will be more clear and upper ridging will move in
overhead. Previously models have agreed upon a fast moving upper low
passing across the central plains Tuesday bringing a cold front
southward by Wednesday with windy conditions Tuesday ahead of the
front. Now models are agreeing on the upper low staying farther to
the north making Tuesday not so windy (not that I mind). Forecasted
winds have been lowered from the previous forecast for Tuesday but
still kept on the breezy side as the front approaches. While temps
on Wednesday should be slightly cooler because of the fropa we
should not see a significant cool down as the source region for the
front will be south-central Canada. This area will not have enough
time to recover from the cold air it let go during the previous
front.

FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue fire weather watch for Friday as there is some concern
how far east critical fire weather conditions can develop. Minimum
RH values at or below 10 percent will develop across the
southwestern South Plains with 10 to 15 percent west of roughly a
Tulia to Jayton line.  Wind speeds across the Rolling Plains will be
below critical values so do not expect Red Flag conditions there.
Second concern for the South Plains are wind speeds which may not be
strong enough for a long enough period of time.  Window for
sustained 20 to 30 MPH is pretty narrow and also limited to the
counties near the Texas/New Mexico state line.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for TXZ021-027-028-033>035-039>041.

&&

$$

93



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