Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 210517
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1217 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.AVIATION...

Overall VFR flight conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours.
Late Thursday night to Friday morning, patchy light fog will be
possible but not be widespread. Winds will be light from the south
or light and variable to calm Thursday night to early Friday
morning. Winds on Friday will be southeast to southwest at 5 to 10
mph. An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible Friday
afternoon to early evening, but will be very isolated and not
included in Tafs at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 830 PM CDT Thur Jul 20 2017
)

Discussion...

Overall forecast on track. Evening convection did wind down and
dissipate. Thursday night to Friday morning, some patchy fog will be
possible, but not widespread. Mostly clear skies will be seen with
lows mainly in the 70s. Friday will be hot with a heat advisory in
effect for much of AR. Isolated convection will again be seen mainly
over southern AR. (59)

Prev Discussion.../ Issued 630 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017/
AVIATION...

Overall VFR flight conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours.
Evening convection will weaken after sunset and dissipate. Late
Thursday night to Friday morning, patchy light fog will be possible
but not be widespread. Winds will be southeast to southwest at 5 to
10 mph Thursday evening, then become light from the south or light
and variable to calm Thursday night to early Friday morning. Winds
on Friday will be southeast to southwest at 5 to 10 mph. An isolated
shower or thunderstorm will be possible Friday afternoon to early
evening, but will be very isolated and not included in Tafs at this
time. (59)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday Night
A ridge of high pressure will continue as dominant feature
on Friday. Under the ridge, above average temperatures are
in the forecast, with very spotty precipitation during the
heat of the afternoon and early evening.

A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the entire forecast
area on Friday. Afternoon heat index values will range from 100
to 110 degrees at most locations.

On Saturday, the ridge will weaken a bit. This will allow
a cold front to slowly approach from the north. No huge
changes are in store. There will likely be more clouds and
small chances for precipitation. It will also be slightly
cooler. A Heat Advisory may be required, but will not be
extended at this time.

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
The gist of the long term period is continued warm weather through
the weekend, with a bit of a reprieve and chances of rain during the
early part of next week. Then, the heat returns.

Upper ridging will be in the process of retrograding back to the
west Saturday night, as a decent shortwave trough moves southeast
across Minnesota and the Great Lakes. This shortwave will eventually
force a weakening boundary into Arkansas by late Sunday night into
Monday. This boundary will both knock temperatures down for the
first couple of days early next week, and also offer a good chance
of showers and thunderstorms. Expect to see fairly widespread
showers and thunderstorms for Monday and Tuesday, but still of the
hit and miss variety most likely.

By the middle of next week, it looks like there is a good chance the
upper ridge will shift back eastward towards Arkansas, for a return
to hot weather.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-
Cleburne-Conway-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-
Independence-Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Perry-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-
Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.


Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR Bradley-Calhoun-
Clark-Cleveland-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Lincoln-Ouachita-Pike.

&&

$$


Aviation...56


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