Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 310511
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1211 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016
Some patchy fog will be possible by around sunrise at some
terminals. Chances for SHRA/TSRA will again be see for Wed...though
only isolated activity expected once again. Better chances for
precip will be seen across the NRN portions of the state as a cold
front pushes south into the state. This front will continue pushing
slowly south into the state...with chance for precip remaining in
the forecast beyond this TAF period.
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 610 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016)
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
Coverage of SHRA/TSRA is diminishing early this evening...with
mainly dry conditions expected overnight. Some patchy fog will be
possible by around sunrise at some terminals. Chances for
SHRA/TSRA will again be see for Wed...though only isolated
activity expected once again. Better chances for precip will be
seen across the NRN portions of the state as a cold front pushes
south into the state.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday
High pressure...both at the sfc and aloft...was centered to the N of
AR this aftn. As a result...an E/NELY sfc wind flow was noted ovr
the FA. Sctd SHRA/TSRA formed arnd midday ovr mainly NRN and WRN AR.
The activity is bring driven mainly by aftn heating and the
influence of the higher terrain. Thus...expect the convection to
quickly dissipate arnd sunset. Mid-aftn temps ranged fm the upr 80s
to the mid 90s.
The aforementioned upr high is fcst to drift sloly WWD in the next
24 to 48 hrs. This wl allow the upr flow pattern to turn NWLY acrs
the region...allowing a cold front to drop SWD into AR. The steering
flow wl also be enhanced by TD #9 that is fcst to track NEWD into
the NRN part of FL later this week.
Have contd with current trends...mentioning SCTD SHRA/TSRA along and
ahead of the fnt as it works SWD thru the state Wed night and Thu.
Cooler and much drier air wl filter into the FA behind the fnt.
Expect another hot and humid day on Wed with highs in the mid 80s to
mid 90s. Thu wl see highs mainly in the 80s. Lows Thu night wl drop
into the 60s...with some upr 50s noted acrs NWRN AR.
Long Term...Thursday night through Tuesday
The gist of it...a cold front will sweep through the state...setting
the stage for a wonderful weekend.
The long of it...change is on the way. An omega block pattern will
develop over the lower 48 this week...with the ridge located over
the plains and corresponding upper troughs over the Pacific
Northwest and the Great Lakes to New England corridor. The resulting
NNW upper level flow over the upper midwest will help to drive a
front through the state. The cold front will be moving south through
the state late Thursday...likely residing somewhere near the
Louisiana border by midnight Thursday night. Some scattered showers
could still linger in southwest parts of the state Thursday evening
but high pressure will build in behind the fron so in large part the
long term forecast period looks to be dry. The omega pattern will
shift east with time...eventually breaking down altogether by late
in the weekend. As the high moves off to the east a gulf return flow
pattern will resume by Sunday afternoon...but a marked increase in
dewpoints and humidity levels is not expected until the Monday or so.
Temperature wise...Thursday and Friday nights will see lows in the
mid 50s to low 60s up north...with low to mid 60s elsewhere. Highs
will largely be in the low to mid 80s Friday and mid to upper 80s on
Saturday. A gradual warmup is expected Sunday onward.