Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 250544
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1244 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WTIH JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED IN THE MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...
SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FOG FORMATION
IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN IN THE FAVORED AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEST...AND BE AROUND 7 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS CYCLE ARE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
THEN A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A
CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE MONDAY TO MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER AND
SURFACE SYSTEM TO AFFECT AR.

MORNING FOG DID DISSIPATE BY NOON...AND WILL AGAIN INCLUDE SOME
TONIGHT WITH SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE UPPER
TROUGH HAS MOVED OUT OF THE REGION TO THE EAST...WHILE
UPSTREAM...A SHORT WAVE WITH SOME MOISTURE WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. HAVE SEEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING SE INTO AR THIS
AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY WITH 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAVING A
PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.63 INCHES...WITH ONLY MOISTURE IN LOWER 5K
FEET. QUITE DRY ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER AR AT THIS
TIME...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S. TEMPS WERE WARMING
TODAY INTO THE 60S AND MAINLY 70S.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
PATCHY FOG AGAIN. THE WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TO AR AND LIMIT FOG FORMATION. ISOLATED DENSE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
RIVER VALLEYS AND ISOLATED NORMAL LOCATIONS BUT WILL NO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO DELINEATE IN THE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT
MOSTLY IN THE 50S. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
OVER THE REGION AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS OVER AR THEN
SHIFTS MORE TO THE SE AND A S TO SW WIND FLOW RETURNS TO AR. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO SOME 60S. PATCHY FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. ON MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE DOES
MOVE EAST AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO LIFT TOWARD AR. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALSO APPROACHES THE REGION...AND CHANCES OF CONVECTION
ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NEW MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO GENERATE A LITTLE MORE QPF ALONG A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COMES IN EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND STICKS
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT
ENOUGH AGREEMENT THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED IN SPITE OF
THE NEW EURO BLOWING THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH FASTER. SINCE THIS IS
THE FIRST RUN SHOWING THIS INCREASED SPEED...WILL LEAN SLIGHTLY
TOWARDS THE GFS FOR NOW.

PERIOD STARTS WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA WITH AN OPEN TROUGH IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER
THE UPPER MICHIGAN PENINSULA WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE.

FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AS IT RUNS INTO THE FLORIDA HIGH.
MODELS NOW SHOWING DECENT ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN THAT POPS WILL NEED
TO BE BUMPED INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE INCREASED SOMEWHAT AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES
TO THE NORTH BUT A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WILL BE TAKEN HERE. THE
BOUNDARY FINALLY CLEARS THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY
TAKING PRECIP CHANCES WITH IT.

TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL DAYS SIX AND SEVEN. MEX
GUIDANCE LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL GENERALLY BE ACCEPTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     82  57  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         83  56  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       83  58  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  58  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  58  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     83  57  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      82  55  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  84  55  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        83  57  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     82  57  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   83  55  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         82  55  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      83  58  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51





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