Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 242024
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
224 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.AVIATION...24/18Z TAF CYCLE

Warm front wl cont to lift NWD acrs N AR this aftn. Expect IFR
conds N of the bndry, with mainly MVFR conds noted elsewhere.
Convection wl cont to expand in coverage to the E this aftn and
this evening ahead of an apchg CDFNT. The main squall line wl
push into Cntrl AR arnd 24/22Z and out of SE AR arnd 25/03z.
Expect gusty winds and OCNL IFR conds with storms. VFR conds wl
return fm W to E later tngt as drier air works into the FA. /44/
&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 345 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night The focus lately has
been on heavy/excessive rain and flooding across Arkansas. This is
still a concern in the near term, but so is severe weather.

A potent storm system will track from the Texas panhandle this
morning into eastern Missouri by this evening. The system will
drag a cold front into the region, with widespread
showers/thunderstorms ahead of the front.

As the system tracks through the southern Plains, a warm front
over southern sections of the state will slowly lift to the north.
There is plenty of low clouds/fog/drizzle north of the front
early this morning, and this will continue for a few hours. This
boundary will make it into northern sections of the state by this
afternoon. The heaviest rain will be along/north of the front,
with severe storms farther south.

For now, have locally more than two inches of rain in the forecast
from Mena to Morrilton and Batesville. Just north and south of
this band, have one to two inch amounts, with half inch to inch
totals in the southeast.

Severe storms will mainly affect the southeast half of Arkansas
this afternoon. Most unstable CAPE values are in the 1500 to 2000
J/kg range, with 0-1km helicity values over 300 m2/s2. There will
likely be a line of storms, and it will move quickly. Would be
worried about discreet cells/supercells ahead of the line, and
rotation in cells along the line. In brief, the main concerns
are strong/damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.

Precipitation will mostly come to an end and the sky will clear
tonight as the front slides to the east. There will be lingering
chances of showers in the southeast, and this will continue into
Sunday. The period will finish with dry conditions Sunday night.

As far as temperatures, readings will climb well above average
today. Readings will be closer to seasonal by Sunday/Sunday night,
but still above average.

LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday
High pressure will be in place at the surface across the region at
the start of the long term portion of the forecast and will continue
to remain nearby through Tuesday as it begins to shift east. Zonal
flow aloft will begin to transition more out of the southwest by
Tuesday as a trough is set to dive south of the four corners region
and approach Arkansas from the west.

Moisture will begin to return to the state and temperatures will
warm as well. A warm front moving north over the state will signal
the major change at the surface on Wednesday, before a developing
low pressure system and trailing cold front look to move nearby and
through the area Thursday. Rain and thunderstorms are likely ahead
of this front, with severe weather a possibility.

Behind this front, cooler but near normal temperatures will appear
in the forecast along with drier conditions for the time being.
There is still some uncertainty with regards to location and timing
of the primary shortwave aloft and surface features as well.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-
Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-
Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-
Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-
Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.
&&

$$



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