Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 282257 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
557 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

A new cold front is pushing south through the state early this Wed
evening...bringing more cool and dry air to the state. As a
result...expect VFR conditions through the period.
Initially...some gusty winds will be seen along and just behind
this front...but expect winds to lessen later this evening and
overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 209 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016)

Short Term...Tonight through Friday

Latest surface analysis places a cold front across the central
part of Arkansas with the boundary slowly moving to the south.
Front has been fairly inconspicuous with its passage marked simply
by a wind shift to the northwest. Boundary is expected to clear
the remainder of the state and move into northern Louisiana early
this evening.

In its wake, upper level high pressure will build into the nations
mid section. Meanwhile, a strong upper low pressure system will cut
off from the prevailing flow over the Ohio valley and basically
remain quasi-stationary through the remainder of the period.

As system spins to our east/northeast, a northwest flow aloft is
expected with temperatures very close to where they are supposed to
be for late September. Moisture rotating around this feature will
bring occasional clouds to the northeast section of the forecast
area but no precipitation is expected here, or anywhere else for
that matter through the period

Long Term...Friday Night through Wednesday

Northwest upper flow will gradually become more zonal through the
weekend, as the Great Lakes region cutoff low moves into the Saint
Lawrence Valley, and riding builds just east of the Rockies. This
will push surface high pressure eastward, with winds gradually
turning back around to the southeast and east by late Sunday. In
turn, temperatures will warm back into the 80s in much of the
area.

This trend will continue into mid-week. By then, the NOAM longwave
pattern will modify, and ridging will develop over the eastern
CONUS, with troughing in the west. This will bring more significant
moisture into the region and the surface and aloft, and bring about
the next chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly just beyond
the end of the period.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...62


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