Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 271739 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1240 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.Aviation...

Overall most Tafs will start with VFR conditions with some ceilings.
Only isolated MVFR ceilings will be seen to start. An isolated
shower may be seen, with the greatest chance over northern AR. A low
level jet has set up over northern AR, and low level wind shear will
be present to start at northern Taf sites. Otherwise, later this
evening and overnight, a storm system and cold front will gradually
move into and through AR into Sunday. These system will bring
showers and thunderstorms, with some strong to severe storms to much
of AR late evening and overnight. MVFR ceilings are expected with
the storms. Rain and storms will still be possible early Sunday as
the system gradually move through. Winds will start southeast to
southwest at 5 to 15 with some gusts to 20 mph, then gradually
become more southwest to west, then west to northwest on Sunday. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 1030 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017/
.Discussion...

Overall forecast on track. Only major change will be lower afternoon
highs due to cloud cover across AR. Lower 80s forecast in the north,
lower to mid 80s central, while mid to a few upper 80s over the
south. Early morning convection over northern AR has pushed east of
the area, then next organized convection more focused later this
evening to overnight and into Sunday. At this time only seeing
isolated convection, mainly over the northern half of AR this
afternoon to early evening. Timing of upper storm system appears to
be late evening in northwest AR, to midnight over more northern AR,
then as the upper lift and cold front gradually sag south,
additional convection will be seen over all of AR after midnight to
Sunday morning. Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are
expected, with large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two
possible. Plenty of moisture, lift and instability will be present.
Euro model the fastest to sag convection into north AR by midnight,
with GFS catching up with Euro overnight, while NAM is the slowest.
HRRR model runs a bit inconsistent with latest more earlier
convection into northern AR, while previous run a bit slower.
Moderate risk over northern AR to Enhance to Slight remains over AR
this afternoon, evening and tonight. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 654 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017/
.AVIATION...

Bulk of overnight convection has shifted E of the FA early this
morning. Combo of VFR/MVFR CIGS noted across the area this mrng.
Expect conds to bcm VFR over much of the area heading into this
aftn as low lvl mixing increases. Little in the way of convection
expected the rest of today as low level inversion sets up over the
region. By tonight, a complex of storms is fcst to organize to
the NW of AR and then drop SWD acrs the state thru overnight hrs,
with mainly MVFR conds expected. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 350 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night

A small cluster of strong/severe storms conts to affect far NRN AR,
along the MO border, early this morning. Large hail has been seen
with these storms at times. Looking at this small complex of storms
to cont working to the E/SE thru the daybreak. The residual bndry
from this activity could play a role in convective trends heading
into tngt over the FA. Elsewhere this mrng, mostly cloudy skies were
observed, along with warm temps.

The primary focus for this fcst PD wl cont to be thunderstorm
chances heading into tngt and Sun, along with the potential for
strong and severe storms.

Model fcst parameters rmn consistent today with regard to severe
weather potential. SBCAPE values in excess of 4000 J/KG are fcst to
be in place later today, although a capping inversion wl tend to
inhibit most storm development thru much of the aftn hrs. That is
expected to change tngt as a cold front wl drop SWD toward AR, along
with an upr lvl impulse, allowing for rapid storm formation to our N
and W by early this evening.

This scenario conts to favor a complex of storms eventually working
into NRN AR early tngt, with damaging winds and very large hail
being the primary concerns. Cannot rule out isolated/short-lived
tornadoes forming along bowing line segments. The complex is
expected to continue working to the SE thru CNTRL/SRN AR late tngt
into Sun mrng, along with the severe weather potential.

The actual cold front wl finally makes its way SEWD thru AR Sun and
Sun night. Rain chances wl linger over most of the state on Sun, but
decrease fm the NW late in the day and Sun ngt as drier air begins
to advect in behind the front.

LONG TERM...Monday through Friday

The cold front will be dropping south of the CWA at the start of the
long term period...with some lingering chances for SHRA/TSRA
forecast for far SERN and SRN portions of the CWA. Drier and calmer
conditions will be seen for the rest of Mon and through early Tue.
However...the front will attempt to lift back north by late Tue into
Wed...with some chances for SHRA/TSRA returning to the forecast.
These increased precip chances will then continue through the rest
of the forecast as the warm front lifts north of the state...with
weak upper disturbances moving overhead.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$



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