Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 291142
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS PRECIPITATION
WEAKENING BY MIDDAY. DID INCLUDE THUNDER TO TAF LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH. AFTERNOON HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THE PATTERN WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN IN PAST DAYS...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE RAIN IS NOT IN THE FORECAST.

HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY FILL
AND THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH...AND THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT
WILL END UP AT/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE
IN THE LONG TERM MODELS INCLUDE ERIKA NOW TRACKING UP THE WESTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA. DO BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM WOULD ROB ARKANSAS OF MUCH
OF THE MOISTURE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY BEING FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
STATE. AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS A BIT BUT DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INCLUDED IN THE SE PORTIONS OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT DID GO A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     87  68  88  69 /  30  30  20  20
CAMDEN AR         92  69  92  69 /  20  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       85  65  85  65 /  40  30  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  69  91  69 /  30  20  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  70  91  70 /  20  30  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     92  68  92  70 /  10  10  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      90  67  90  68 /  40  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  66  87  67 /  40  30  20  20
NEWPORT AR        87  68  88  69 /  20  30  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     92  68  92  68 /  20  20  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  67  91  68 /  40  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         90  67  91  67 /  20  30  20  20
STUTTGART AR      91  68  91  68 /  20  30  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65


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