Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 301801
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
101 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...30/18Z TAF CYCLE

SFC BNDRY WAS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST S OF THE FA AT MIDDAY. WEAK
SFC RDG WL LINGER OVR AR THRU THIS EVENING...PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY
CLR SKIES/VFR CONDS. THE RDG WL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SLOLY EWD TNGT
AND TUE...ALLOWING THE SFC BNDRY TO GRADUALLY BEGIN LIFTING BACK
NWD AS A WARM FNT. AS A RESULT...LOW LVL RH/MVFR CIGS WL RETURN TO
MAINLY CNTRL AND SRN AR LATER TNGT AND PERSIST THRU TUE MRNG. SCTD
SHRA WL ALSO BE POSSIBLE VCNTY OF THE BNDRY...WITH PROB30 GROUPS
INCLUDED FOR THOSE SITES AFFECTED. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FAR
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DID FIRE UP ALONG SAID
BOUNDARY AS EXPECTED BUT IT SHOULD BE A NON FACTOR THIS MORNING.
WILL HOLD ONTO MINIMAL POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTH EARLY FOR ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION.

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN OVERALL UNSETTLED
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF GENERALLY WEAK AND NON
DESCRIPT SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW. WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCALE...THERE ARE ENOUGH TIMING
DIFFERENCES THAT WOULD PRECLUDE USING ONE SOLUTION VERSUS ANOTHER
AND A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES TO THE STATE WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE. AS SUCH...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
TODAY.

UPPER PATTERN ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS MORNING FEATURES BROAD NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. PATTERN DOES FLATTEN OUT WITH
TIME WITH A LITTLE BIT OF WEAK RIDGING COMING IN ON WEDNESDAY. STILL
WITH THESE WEAK RIPPLES MOVING THROUGH...WILL NEED TO HOLD ONTO TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW END CHANCE POPS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HOWEVER
WILL BE MINIMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE STATE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. SYSTEM WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS EXPECTED IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH A SUBTLE WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE MAV/MEX NUMBERS GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SE THROUGH THE STATE AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT ON
THU. WITH TEMPS FAIRLY MILD ON FRI...DO THINK MAYBE A STRONG OR
SVR STORM COULD BE SEEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE STATE FRI NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FOR SAT...WITH PRECIP
ENDING FROM NW TO SE FRI NIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH DRY AIR REMAINING ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON SUN AND SUN
NIGHT...BUT ENOUGH INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO
KEEP PRECIP CHANCES LIMITED THROUGH MUCH OF SUN. MOISTURE MAY START
SLOWLY RETURNING FOR LATE SUN NIGHT...SO HAVE MENTIONED SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST IS LOW AT THIS TIME...SO KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW AT
THIS TIME. HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION JUST
BEYOND THIS FORECAST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





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