Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 262258 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
458 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH
SOME MVFR CIGS COULD BE SEEN AT SOME CENTRAL AND NRN SITES LATE
TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY THU. OTHERWISE...THE BREEZY NW WINDS WILL
RELAX SOME TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THU.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH MUCH OF THE LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE STATE. CLOUDS WERE THINNING BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVE...AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IS PUSHES THROUGH AR.
SOME COLD AIR STRATA CUMULUS WAS FORMING CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MO. ALSO OVER MO SOME PRECIP WAS
NOTED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. TEMPS WERE HELD DOWN IN THE
40S BEFORE THE CLOUDS THINNED AND SOME SUNSHINE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
REACH THE 50S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WHILE THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTH. THIS AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST TO THE WEST TO KLIT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE STATE. SOUTH
WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE SW THEN
W THEN NW BEHIND THE FRONT...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTLES IN OVER
AR.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING...SOME CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR...WHILE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
STATE...AND THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO MOVES EAST. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN BECOME MORE ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT.
OVERNIGHT...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND CLOUDS THIN OVER
NORTHERN AREAS. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES BUILDS A BIT MORE EAST. NW UPPER FLOW HOLDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT LITTLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SEEN TO AFFECT THE
WEATHER FOR AR. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...AS TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NORMAL...THEN ABOVE NORMAL VALUES HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL HELP WARM
THINGS UP QUITE A BIT OVER ARKANSAS...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY PUSHING
70 FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 70S ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...BEFORE STALLING
AND/OR WASHING OUT MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL GET...SO HAVE MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CHANGES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS A RESULT. WILL KEEP 20-30
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
IN THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...KNOCKING HIGHS
DOWN INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH BUT ONLY TO THE LOW 60S IN
THE FAR SOUTH. TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOME ON TUESDAY...AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     29  45  30  54 /  10   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         34  53  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       26  45  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    31  52  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  31  49  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     34  50  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      30  52  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  27  44  30  56 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        30  45  30  54 /  10   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     32  49  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   28  49  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         29  46  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      31  47  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62




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