Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 180519 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1119 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

RAIN IS COMING TO AN END IN NW ARKANSAS THIS HOUR...AND SHOULD COME
TO AN END AT KHOT AND KLIT AROUND 10-12Z OR SO...AND FINALLY BY KLLQ
BETWEEN 12-14Z. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL PL WITHIN THE
RAINFALL. BEHIND THE MAIN LINE OF RAINFALL SOME -DZ WILL BE NOTED
FOR A FEW HOURS AT MOST SITES. FLIGHT CATEGORIES WERE SLOW TO FALL
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT STILL EXPECT IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS
UP NORTH BY 08Z AT THE LATEST...AND MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS AFTER 10-12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. UPPER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVING INTO AR AND
BRINGING AREA OF RAIN WHICH HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AR. SPOTTY LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN A RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET MIX.
SURFACE TEMPS WERE RUNNING MID 30S NORTH...UPPER 30S AROUND 40
CENTRAL...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING WAS ALL
ABOVE FREEZING...BUT AN AREA AROUND 1800 FEET IS CLOSE TO
FREEZING...AND WITH JUST A BIT OF ATMOSPHERIC COOLING WITH THE
PRECIP...THE SPOTTY SLEET HAS BEEN SEEN. TEMPS WILL BECOME STEADY
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...AND ONLY NORTHERN AR IS
EXPECTED TO SEE ANY SPOTTY WINTRY MIX. STILL EXPECTED AMOUNTS TO BE
LOW...AS GROUND TEMPS ARE WARM...AND LIQUID RAIN WILL HOLD BACK
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP. LATE EVENING UPDATE WILL
FINE TINE TEMPS AND PRECIP AREAS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE SEEN PRECIPITATION MOVE INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS A BIT
EARLIER THAN ADVERTISED. THIS AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE DAY HAVE LIMITED HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS
TODAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE SEEN SOME SLEET MIXING AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE LOWEST LEVELS.
ONCE THE COLUMN MOISTENS UP A BIT...HAVE SEEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NWA AND OKLAHOMA CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF
ARKANSAS ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND NO IMPACTS FROM THE BRIEF PERIODS OF
WINTER WEATHER HAVE BEEN REPORTED.

TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL VERY LITTLE ACROSS NORTH
ARKANSAS...YET TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINTER WEATHER...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE
THERMAL PROFILE OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWING A JUST THICK ENOUGH
WARM LAYER AT THE SURFACE TO PREVENT FROZEN PRECIP...HOWEVER A FEW
HUNDRED FEET OF ELEVATION WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE. AS A
RESULT...WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE LIMITED TO ELEVATIONS OVER 1-2K FEET.
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS SE OF ARKANSAS FROM THE WESTERN GULF...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE REGION LEAVING ARKANSAS ON THE NW SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW. IT APPEARS THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE
SOUTH OF ARKANSAS...BUT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE COULD STILL
RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN.  COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE AGAIN LOOKS
TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR AND IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL
HAVE PUSHED OUT OF NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY THE TIME
TEMPERATURES BECOME COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINTER WEATHER.
AGAIN...HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROZEN
PRECIP.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND IT AND
BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE PLAINS LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CHANCES FOR RAIN/SHOWERS. LOOKING
ALOFT...A TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO THE
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...A POWERFUL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN IN THE NORTH. WHILE FLURRIES
CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED...THERE IS NO MENTION OF SNOW FOR NOW.

BEHIND THE SYSTEM...IT WILL BRIEFLY TURN COOLER BRIEFLY ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     33  42  35  42 /  70  20  10  50
CAMDEN AR         38  50  43  48 /  80  40  30  80
HARRISON AR       33  42  34  41 /  80  20  20  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    36  47  41  46 /  80  30  20  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  33  46  41  45 /  70  30  20  70
MONTICELLO AR     39  49  43  48 /  80  40  20  80
MOUNT IDA AR      36  46  38  46 /  80  30  20  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  33  42  36  41 /  80  20  10  30
NEWPORT AR        34  42  36  42 /  70  20  10  60
PINE BLUFF AR     37  47  41  46 /  80  40  20  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   36  47  40  45 /  80  20  20  50
SEARCY AR         34  44  35  42 /  70  20  10  70
STUTTGART AR      37  46  40  45 /  80  30  10  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64




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