Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 300524
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.AVIATION...

Evening convection will continue to wind down over southern AR. It
will only affect KHOT and KADF initially, then a bit later around
midnight at KLIT KPBF and KLLQ. Used VCTS initially then a Tempo
group at KPBF and KLLQ. Isolated MVFR ceilings will be possible with
the convection. Late overnight to Saturday sunrise, patchy IFR may
form in spots, but is expected to be very isolated to include in
Tafs. Winds will be light from the south while light and variable
away from storms. On Saturday clouds will start the day then partly
cloudy with convection from time to time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 900 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016)

Discussion...

Evening convection over southwest to southern AR continues to
gradually move southeast and slowly weaken. Short range models
continue this trend and slowly wash convection out over southern AR
to northern LA. Forecast update will have this trend. Most of
central and northern AR will have a lower chance of convection
overnight. Patchy lower ceilings and fog will also be seen late
night especially in areas that receive rain. The upper northwest
flow remains into the region and convection will be possible, but
forecasting location of convection is a challenge. Otherwise, lows
tonight will be from the upper 60s to mid 70s. (59)

Prev Discussion.../ Issued 645 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/
Aviation...

Evening convection is on-going at Taf time and central and southern
Tafs will have VCTS and Tempo groups included this evening to around
midnight. Patchy MVFR ceilings and visibility with storms. Overnight
at Taf sites that received rain areas of MVFR will be seen as well
as isolated IFR conditions will be possible. Winds will be light
from the south while light and variable away from storms. On
Saturday clouds will start the day then partly cloudy with
convection from time to time. (59)

Prev Discussion.../ Issued 240 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday

Widespread convection will continue across roughly the northern
half of the state this afternoon and evening before diurnal trends
lead to dissipation of storms. In the meantime some of these
storms will continue to be strong to severe...with damaging winds
and some hail being a distinct possibility.

Otherwise...northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the region
through the first half of this weekend before an upper ridge begins
to build in from the southwest...displacing the upper level
northwesterly flow off towards the Ohio River Valley area. Until
that time however...nocturnal MCS and afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are expect. As such fairly broad-brushed chance
PoPs will be in the forecast through the remainder of the short
term period. Temperatures will remain around or slightly below
seasonal norms...especially during the afternoon hours.

LONG TERM...Sunday night Through Friday

Ridging will build back into the region during the period, with only
isolated to scattered, diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms
expected. Humidity will remain high, and by mid-week, heat index
values could approach or exceed 105 degrees in places. By the end of
the period, influence of the ridge should begin to wane.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...56



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